CPS Final Thailand Review Validation of the Country Partnership Validation Strategy Final Review, 2013–2016 Independent Evaluation Raising development impact through evaluation Validation Report July 2019 Thailand: Validation of the Country Partnership Strategy Final Review, 2013–2016 This is a redacted version of the document, which excludes information that is subject to exceptions to disclosure set forth in ADB’s Access to Information Policy. Independent Evaluation: VR-35 NOTES (i) In this report, “$” refers to United States dollars. (ii) For an explanation of rating descriptions used in evaluation reports of the Asian Development Bank, see ADB. 2015. 2015 Guidelines for the Preparation of Country Assistance Program Evaluations and Country Partnership Strategy Final Review Validations. Manila. Director General Marvin Taylor-Dormond, Independent Evaluation Department (IED) Deputy Director General Veronique Salze-Lozac’h, IED Director Nathan Subramaniam, Sector and Project Division, IED Team leader Lauren Hauck, Senior Evaluation Specialist, IED Team member Ma. Celia Guzon, Evaluation Assistant, IED Irene Garganta, Evaluation Analyst, IED The guidelines formally adopted by the Independent Evaluation Department on avoiding conflict of interest in its independent evaluations were observed in the preparation of this report. To the knowledge of the management of the Independent Evaluation Department, there were no conflicts of interest of the persons preparing, reviewing, or approving this report. In preparing any evaluation report, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Independent Evaluation Department does not intend to make any judgment as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Abbreviations ACMECS – Ayeyawady–Chao Phraya–Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy ACT – Anti-Corruption Organization of Thailand ADB – Asian Development Bank ANR – agriculture, natural resources, and rural development ARIC – Asia Regional Integration Center ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations BIMSTEC – Bay of Bengal Initiative on Multisector Technical and Economic Cooperation BOT – Bank of Thailand CEP-BCI – core environment program and biodiversity conservation initiative COBP – country operations business plan CPS – country partnership strategy CPSFR – country partnership strategy final review CTF – Clean Technology Fund DDPM – Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation EGAT – Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand EGCO – Electricity Generating Public Company EWEC – East–West Economic Corridor FPO – Fiscal Policy Office GACAP II – Second Governance and Anticorruption Action Plan GDP – gross domestic product GMRA – Greater Mekong Railway Association GMS – Greater Mekong Subregion IED – Independent Evaluation Department IMT-GT – Indonesia–Malaysia–Thailand Growth Triangle JICA – Japan International Cooperation Agency km – kilometer MRT – mass rapid transit MRTA – Mass Rapid Transit Authority MW – megawatt NEDA – Neighboring Countries Development Cooperation Agency NESDB – National Economic and Social Development Board NSFI – national strategy for financial inclusion OECD – Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PDMO – Public Debt Management Office PEA – Provincial Electricity Authority PCR – project completion report PISU – private investment in state undertakings PPP – public–private partnership RCI – regional cooperation and integration SCI – subregional cooperation initiative SEC – Southern Economic Corridor SEF – Subregional Energy Forum SEPO – State Enterprise Policy Office SERD – Southeast Asia Department SFI – specialized financial institutions SME – Small- and medium-sized enterprises SRT – State Railway of Thailand TA – technical assistance TICA – Thailand International Cooperation Agency UMIC – upper middle-income country Currency Equivalents (as of 27 February 2019) Currency Unit – Thai baht (B) B1.00 = $0.03184 $1.00 = B31.4020 Contents Page Acknowledgments vii Executive Summary ix Chapter 1: Background Information 1 A. Validation Purposes and Procedure 1 B. Country Development Context and Government Plans 1 C. Country Partnership Strategy 4 D. ADB Program, 2013–2016 4 Chapter 2: Validation of the Country Partnership Strategy Final Review 7 A. Relevance 7 B. Effectiveness 21 C. Efficiency 32 D. Sustainability 36 E. Development Impacts 38 F. ADB and Borrower Performance 39 G. Overall Assessment 41 H. Assessment of Quality of Self-Evaluation 41 Chapter 3: Conclusions, Issues, and Recommendations 42 A. Conclusions 42 B. Issues 42 C. Recommendations 43 Appendixes 1. Thailand Economic and Environment Indicators 46 2. ADB Country Portfolio for Thailand, 2012–2016 47 3. Total Portfolio by Sector, 2012–2016 50 4. Country Partnership Strategy Country Operations Business Plan—Pipelines Planned vs. Actual 52 Loans and Technical Assistance Projects 5. Country Partnership Strategy, 2013–2016 Results Framework Sector Outcomes 56 6. Scores Assigned to Country Partnership Strategy Sector Programs and Crosscutting Objectives 58 Acknowledgments This validation report was prepared by Lauren Hauck as team leader and Ma. Celia Guzon and Irene Garganta as team members. International consultant, Clay Wescott, provided valuable inputs. Director General of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Independent Evaluation Department (IED) Marvin Taylor- Dormond, Deputy Director General Veronique Salze-Lozac’h, and Director Nathan Subramaniam (Sector and Project Division) provided overall guidance. The report benefited from external peer review of the draft by John Weiss. Internal comments from Srinivasan Palle Venkata, Senior Evaluation Specialist, and Jose Antonio Tan III, Advisor, of IED improved the quality of the report. The team is grateful to ADB staff at headquarters and in the Thailand resident mission, Government of Thailand officials, private sector clients of ADB, and other stakeholders for discussions, inputs, and support for the preparation of this report. IED retains full responsibility for this report. Executive Summary The Thailand country partnership strategy (CPS), 2013–2016 of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was aligned with Thailand’s Eleventh National Economic and Social Development Plan, 2012–2016. The goal of the CPS was to assist Thailand to achieve inclusive and sustainable rapid economic growth that would reduce income inequality and lead to Thailand achieving high-income status. In 2013– 2016, ADB approved 11 loans, grants, and technical assistance (TA) projects totaling $360 million. The review period for this validation is 2012–2016 and it considers the $1.34 billion portfolio of 35 ongoing, completed, and approved programs in the transport, finance, water and other urban infrastructure and services, and energy sectors during this period. This validation assesses the Thailand CPS, 2013–2016 successful. The program implemented projects that were appropriate for an upper middle-income country (UMIC). They were designed to meet Thailand’s specific needs in sectors where ADB has strong expertise, during a period when the country was affected by severe flooding and political uncertainty. Important support was provided for public– private partnerships (PPPs), road transport, capital market reform, financial literacy, renewable energy, and baseload power. Strong government commitment and resources supported the achievement of sustainable results. However, regional cooperation initiatives (RCI) were generally separated from country programming and ADB missed opportunities to expand its RCI program for Thailand and to document the potential benefits of RCI programs for Thailand. The validation makes five recommendations for ADB’s future support to Thailand. ADB should: (i) continue its knowledge sharing and private sector financing approach for Thailand; (ii) improve coordination between ADB’s regional cooperation and integration (RCI), sovereign, and nonsovereign operations and develop mechanisms to capture the benefits for Thailand of ADB’s extensive support for RCI; (iii) expand its sectors of operations to include education and agriculture and other social sectors; (iv) develop a results framework for the next CPS that reflects the contributions ADB can support; and (v) explore cost recovery for technical assistance programs for Thailand. ADB’s Independent Evaluation Department (IED) operations in the transport, finance, water and validated the Southeast Asia Department’s other urban infrastructure and services, and country partnership strategy final review (CPSFR) energy sectors supported the CPS’s strategic pillars of the Thailand CPS, 2013–2016. The validation of knowledge advancement, private sector reviewed ADB’s approved, ongoing, and development, and facilitation of RCI. ADB completed projects over the CPSFR review period provided policy support for public–private of 2012–2016 (2012 was included to cover the partnerships (PPPs), capital markets, gap between the CPS, 2013–2016 and the improvements to financial sector regulation, and previous CPS). An evaluation mission to Bangkok increased financial literacy. Greater use of conducted meetings with government agencies, renewable energy was supported through private private sector clients, development partners, and sector operations. ADB staff. The country program of 35 approved, completed, and ongoing projects for the 2012–2016 review Country Partnership Strategy, 2013– period totaled $1.34 billion and consisted of two 2016 and ADB Support sovereign loans, two