United States Department of ERSAgriculture Sugar and Sweetener Economic Research Service SSS-230 January 2001 Situation and Outlook Report U.S. sugar production Mil. short tons, raw value 10 8 Total 6 Beet sugar 4 Cane sugar 2 0 1985/86 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 2000/01 2000/01 projected. Source: Economic Research Service, USDA. Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook. Market and Trade Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, January 2001, SSS-230. Contents Summary . .3 U.S. Sugar . .5 Year Ended, FY 2000 . .5 Prices . .6 Current Year, FY 2001 . .6 High Fructose Corn Syrup . .12 Special Article U.S. Sugar Price Indices and Stocks-to-Use Ratios . .14 List of Tables . .23 List of Figures . .24 Internet Access to Sugar-Related Data . .70 Report Coordinator Stephen Haley (202) 694-5247 FAX (202) 694-5884 E-mail: [email protected] Principal Contributors Stephen Haley Nydia Suarez Karen Ackerman Database Coordinator/Graphics & Table Design Fannye Lockley-Jolly Editor Martha R. Evans Layout & Text Design Wynnice Pointer-Napper Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook is pub- Summary released January 25, 2001. The summary of lished two times a year and supplemented by a yearbook. To the next Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook is order, call 1-800-999-6779 in the United States or Canada. scheduled for release on May 24, 2001. Summaries and full Other areas please call (703) 605-6220. Or write ERS- text of Situation and Outlook reports may be accessed elec- NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161. tronically via the ERS website at www.ers.usda.gov The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, reli- gion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs). Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (202) 720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 2 n Sugar and Sweetener/SSS-230/January 2001 Economic Research Service/USDA Summary The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported the Louisiana cane sugar production is projected at 1.570 mil- impact of the Payment-in-Kind (PIK) Diversion Program lion STRV. Although sugarcane area harvested has increased on fiscal year (FY) 2001 sugarbeet and beet sugar produc- 35,000 acres over last year, sugarcane production is esti- tion in the October 2000 Crop Production report and the mated down 275,000 STRV due to a continuing lack of ade- October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates quate moisture. Sugar recovery is expected to be 5 percent (WASDE) report. Sugarbeet area harvested fell by 101,600 lower than last year. Hawaii cane sugar production for FY acres, or about 7 percent from the September 1 forecast; 2001 is projected at 265,000 STRV. One of the three and sugarbeet production dropped by 2.030 million tons, or remaining Hawaiian sugar companies ceased operations in about 6 percent lower than its September 1 forecast. November 2000, and one of the other companies closed a National yield was forecast upward by 0.2 ton per acre. The processing facility. production of beet sugar was reduced by 320,000 short tons, raw value (STRV), or by 6.9 percent from the Sugar imports under the raw and refined sugar tariff-rate September WASDE. quotas (TRQs) are currently projected at 1.275 million STRV. As of January 8, 2001, sugar imports under the TRQs Total sugar production in FY 2001 is presently projected at have amounted to 317,703 STRV, or about 25 percent of the 8.538 million STRV, down 130,000 tons from the December amount projected to enter for FY 2001. Sugar imports out- projection, and 6 percent lower than the FY 2001 estimate. side the sugar TRQ for FY 2001 are projected to total 515,000 STRV, including 365,000 STRV under the com- Beet sugar production for FY 2001 is currently projected at bined Refined Sugar Re-export Program, the Sugar- 4.370 million STRV. Sugarbeet production is forecast at Containing Products Program, and the Polyhydric Alcohol 32.521 million tons, about 3 percent lower than last year. Program. The USDA projects an increase in U.S. sugar sup- Area harvested is estimated at 1.378 million acres. The yield ply to 125,000 STRV as a result of sugar syrup imports estimate is 23.6 tons per acre, a record. Based on historical under HTS 1702.90.40. High-tier tariff sugar imports for FY relationships, it is projected that beets sliced during the cur- 2001 are projected to increase to 25,000 STRV, up from rent crop year will exceed 30.4 million tons, or about 3.7 6,000 STRV in FY 2000. percent less than last year. Based on to-date sugar recovery rates and their average relationship with respect to the final Sugar exports under the Refined Sugar Re-export Program sugar recovery rate, it is projected that the final recovery for FY 2001 are projected at 175,000 STRV. Deliveries to rate, net of sugar from molasses, will equal 270 pounds per domestic food and other products manufacturers under the sliced ton, down 24 pounds from last year. This rate, along Sugar-Containing Products Re-export Program are projected with a projection for sugar recovered from molasses, implies at 125,000 STRV. Deliveries for the Polyhydric Alcohol sugar production for FY 2001 of 4.37 million STRV, or Program are projected at 15,000 STRV. about 12 percent less than last year. Total deliveries for FY 2001 are projected at 10.385 million Cane sugar production for FY 2001 is projected at 4.168 STRV. After netting out deliveries made for the Sugar- million STRV, about 2.5 percent above the estimated total Containing Products and Polyhydric Alcohol Programs, for FY 2000. Production increases in Florida (154,000 along with deliveries for livestock feeding (20,000 STRV), STRV), Texas (75,000 STRV), and Puerto Rico (19,000 domestic food and beverage deliveries are projected at STRV) are expected to more than offset declines in 10.225 million, about 2.3 percent higher than FY 2000. Louisiana (92,000 STRV) and Hawaii (53,000 STRV). Ending stocks are currently projected at 1.987 million Florida cane sugar production is projected at 2.130 million STRV, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 18.8 percent. Of STRV. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) the total, the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) owns estimates sugarcane production at 664,000 tons more than 793,555 STRV or 39.9 percent of total projected ending last year. Sugar recovery to date has been at a record high, stocks. The ratio of privately-held ending stocks-to-use is implying that the season-average recovery rate will likely projected at 12.5 percent. approach 13.2 percent. Texas cane sugar production is pro- jected at 180,000 STRV. NASS estimates Texas area of sug- The CCC acquired 793,669 STRV in October as a result of arcane for sugar and seed at 46,600 acres, up 15,600 acres loan forfeitures. Adding this amount to what the CCC had from last year. Yield is estimated at 37.7 tons per acre and already owned (296,649 STRV) gave them a pre-PIK the crop is estimated at 1.734 million STRV. Puerto Rico Diversion dispersal total of 1,090,318 STRV. On December 1, sugar production for FY 2001 is projected at 22,500 STRV. 2000, the CCC transferred title to 277,349 tons of refined It is expected that the two sugar mills on the island will be crystalline sugar to participating producers, or their assignees. back in production this year. Economic Research Service/USDA Sugar and Sweetener/SSS-230/January 2001 n 3 The acres diverted from production by the PIK program rep- current trends continue, it is likely that total HFCS deliver- resent about 7 percent of acreage planted to sugarbeets. ies for 2001 will be only 1.1 percent higher than levels in 2000. Prospects for HFCS-42 are for little to no growth, Domestic deliveries of HFCS-42 in 2000 are forecast at while HFCS-55 deliveries may grow as much as 1.7 percent. 3.562 million tons, dry basis, about the same level as last Much will depend on developments in the soft drink indus- year. Domestic deliveries of HFCS-55 are forecast at 5.603 try where sales growth diminished from the high levels from million tons, dry basis, about 30,000 tons less than last year. most of the 1990’s. These levels represent a major downturn for the industry. If 4 n Sugar and Sweetener/SSS-230/January 2001 Economic Research Service/USDA U.S. Sugar On January 11, 2001, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Sugar exports under the Refined Sugar Re-export Program (USDA) released its latest supply and use estimates for fis- are estimated to have been 124,000 STRV. Total deliveries cal year (FY) 2000 and projections for FY 2001. for domestic food and beverage uses, re-exported products, polyhydric alcohol, and feed uses are estimated at 10.111 Year Ended, FY 2000 million STRV, only marginally above the previous year’s total.