A CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION: ASSESSING STATES’ BEHAVIOR IN SOUTH ASIA PhD DISSERTATION This Dissertation is submitted to National Defence University, Islamabad in partial fulfillment for the degree of PhD in International Relations By KHURRAM MAQSOOD AHMAD NDU-IR/PhD-14/S-029 Supervisor DR. RASHID AHMED Department of International Relations Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University, Islamabad Pakistan, 2020 DEDICATION I dedicate this to my beloved parents, who guide me in every field of life. Their invaluable prayers are key to my success. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all, thanks to Almighty Allah for giving me the courage and ability to undertake the successful completion of this thesis. I believe that such innovative efforts are impossible without the grace of Allah, the Beneficent and the Merciful. I am extremely grateful to my thesis supervisor, Dr. Rashid Ahmed, for being extremely cooperative. I really faced with a paucity of words to express my gratitude to him for his generosity. He has been a great facilitator and has enabled me to embrace new opportunities and expand my intellectual horizons. I would also appreciate the faculty of National Defence University who equipped me with tools for a better understanding of the whole on a variety of levels. Additionally, I would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by my wife at every stage and without which this research project would have remained a dream. I would also like to thank my parents, sister, and brother for their support and encouragement. Special gratitude is due to my parents to whom I am indebted for having been there for me throughout my life. I would also like to appreciate my friends for their moral support and encouragement. Khurram Maqsood Ahmad v ABSTRACT The nuclearization of South Asia has not only reshaped the nature of conflict in the region but has also reduced the chances of conventional wars between India and Pakistan. However, it is equally true that nuclear weapons have neither been able to promote lasting peace in the region nor has deterrence helped in the resolution of conflict. Both states share a history of protracted conflict embedded in mutual threat perception and security dilemma vis-à-vis each other which has resulted in an acute sense of insecurity. This psychological preoccupation is a major hurdle in conflict resolution between two states and is at the core of shaping their aggressive behavior towards each other. This study has examined nuclear deterrence, conflict transformation and the behavior of states in South Asia under the nuclear umbrella. These three aspects have been covered on account of their profound effect on issues such as nuclear non-proliferation, state motivation behind acquisition of nuclear weapons and the impact of nuclear weapons on the protracted conflict. The reason for conducting this research is to study and analyze the paradox that conflict transformation is challenging in the presence of nuclear deterrence in South Asia. Ironically, where chances of war are curtailed by deterrence, chances of conflict resolution are also curtailed by the same. Hence the study focuses on finding answers to the four basic questions: (i) “how the nuclear deterrence concept in South Asia is different from the Cold War explanation of nuclear deterrence?”; (ii) “how the contours of conflict transformation contribute to transform states’ behavior?”; (iii) “how the contemporary approached of conflict transformation are challenged by India-Pakistan scenario under nuclear deterrence in South Asia?”; (iv) “why protracted conflicts between Pakistan and India could not transform through nuclear deterrence?” The study has used qualitative method in analyzing the proposed hypothesis. In the contemporary conflict transformation literature, it has not been discussed at length with nuclear deterrence in perspective. Realism has been used as a theoretical concept for building upon the base for understanding the conflict between India and Pakistan. Furthermore, the nuclear deterrence and acquisition of nuclear weapons have also been analyzed through the lens of realism as a theoretical framework. This study has made a significant contribution to the present debate on conflict transformation. The study finds that the conventional practices used for conflict transformation are not applicable in India Pakistan conflict and the theory needs to be revamped in order to suggest solution to protracted state conflicts. vi Key Terms/Concepts: The study focuses on following three main concepts. The intervening related terms and concepts are discussed in relevant chapters; (i) Conflict Transformation; as a concept is very important to understand for this study. Conflict transformation does not only means the resolution of conflict but it means the elimination of the cause of conflict and positive transformation in the relative behavior of the two states for this particular study. (ii) Nuclear Deterrence; in context of India-Pakistan in the South Asian region is different from the Cold War conception. It depends upon several factors like geo-strategic landscape of the region, relative capabilities of India-Pakistan and China factor in the overall power balance. State Behavior Transformation; refers change of behavior from negative enmity to positive friendship in context of conflict resolution. This term is hugely important for this study because protracted conflict between India and Pakistan has grown deep rooted negative behavior towards each other that has always prevented to establish trust among them which is the most important factor to start a peace process. vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS A.Q. Khan Abdul Qadeer Khan AEC Atomic Energy Commission APC Armed Personnel Carriers BJP Bharatiya Janata Party CBMs Confidence-Building Measures CENTO Central Treaty Organization CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor CGE Canadian General Electric Company CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIR Canada-India Reactor CIRUS Canada-India Reactor, US CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency Indo-Pak India-Pakistan Indo-US India-U.S. KANUPP Karachi Nuclear Power Plant LoC Line of Control NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NPT Non- proliferation Treaty PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission PARR-1 Pakistan Research Reactor-1 PNE Peaceful Nuclear Explosion PTBT Partial Test Ban Treaty RMA Revolution in Military Affairs viii SEATO South East Asia Treaty Organization TNW Tactical Nuclear Weapons UN United Nations US United States USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction ix Contents DEDICATION ................................................................................................................................ iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................................... v ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ...................................................................... vii INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 1 Problem Statement ........................................................................................................................... 4 Objectives of the Study .................................................................................................................... 5 Significance of the Study ................................................................................................................. 5 Gap Identified .................................................................................................................................. 6 Hypothesis........................................................................................................................................ 6 Variables .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Research Questions .......................................................................................................................... 7 Research Methodology .................................................................................................................... 8 Research Design............................................................................................................................... 9 Data Collection ................................................................................................................................ 9 Primary Data .................................................................................................................................... 9 Interview Technique ........................................................................................................................ 9 Secondary Data .............................................................................................................................. 10 Limitation and Scope of the Study................................................................................................. 10 Temporal Boundary ....................................................................................................................... 10 Spatial Limitation..........................................................................................................................