Study report: Predicting SAR response and operational requirements based on NZ population projections through to 2030 Volume 1: Baselines & trends, demand analysis and detailed projections Prepared for: Search & Rescue Institute New Zealand Ltd. Research sponsored by New Zealand Oil & Gas By: Gordon Cessford and Bronek Kazmierow Date: 20 August 2010 B Kazmierow Recreation & Tourism Consulting E: [email protected]; Ph: 04 234 1540; Cell: 021 140 1841 W: http://home.clear.net.nz/pages/bronek/home/ PO Box 58082, Porirua 5245 10 The Crowsnest, Whitby, Porirua Citation Cessford, G.R., Kazmierow, B.J. (2010). Predicting SAR response and operational requirements based on NZ population projections through to 2030. Volume 1: Baselines & trends, demand analysis and detailed projections. Prepared for SARINZ & NZ Oil & Gas by B. Kazmierow Recreation & Tourism Consulting, New Zealand. Prepared for SARINZ Ltd., NZ - www.sarinz.com NZ Oil & Gas – www.nzog.com Prepared by Gordon Cessford and Bronek Kazmierow Date 20 August 2010 Contacts B Kazmierow – Recreation & Tourism Consulting [email protected] Table of Contents1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ IV 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2. OBJECTIVES ...................................................................................................................................... 1 3. REVIEW OF EXISTING INFORMATION ............................................................................................... 3 3.1. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS DRAWN FROM THE LITERATURE .......................................................................... 3 3.2. APPROACH ....................................................................................................................................... 3 3.3. DEMAND-SIDE RESEARCH .................................................................................................................... 4 3.3.1. DEMAND FOR SAR ............................................................................................................................ 4 3.3.2. DEMAND FOR RECREATION ACTIVITIES .................................................................................................. 5 3.3.3. DEMAND FOR TOURISM ACTIVITIES ....................................................................................................... 6 3.3.4. NON-RECREATION DEMAND FOR SAR ................................................................................................... 7 3.4. SUPPLY-SIDE RESEARCH....................................................................................................................... 8 3.4.1. NATIONAL LEVEL VOLUNTEER DATA ....................................................................................................... 8 3.4.2. SAR-SPECIFIC VOLUNTEER RESEARCH ................................................................................................... 8 3.4.3. EMERGENCY SERVICE VOLUNTEER RESEARCH .......................................................................................... 9 3.4.4. OTHER USEFUL VOLUNTEER RESEARCH ................................................................................................. 11 3.4.5. TECHNOLOGY IMPACT RESEARCH (ON VOLUNTEER SUPPLY) ..................................................................... 11 3.5. SUPPLY AND DEMAND – LOOKING FORWARD ........................................................................................ 12 4. METHODS ...................................................................................................................................... 14 4.1. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK AND APPROACH .................................................................................. 14 4.2. CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS INFLUENCING SAR INCIDENTS .......................................... 14 4.3. REGIONAL FOCUS – REGIONAL BOUNDARY CONCORDANCES ..................................................................... 16 4.4. PRINCIPLE DATA SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS ......................................................................................... 19 4.4.1. METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS .................................................................................................. 19 4.4.2. RESEARCH APPROACH ....................................................................................................................... 21 4.4.3. CENSUS DATA ................................................................................................................................. 22 4.4.4. SAR EXPERT OPINIONS ON KEY TRENDS ................................................................................................ 22 4.5. APPLICATION OF THE MODEL FOR SPECIFIC INCIDENT TYPES ...................................................................... 23 4.5.1. ASSUMPTIONS UNDERPINNING PROJECTIONS ........................................................................................ 23 4.5.2. NOTES ON INTERPRETING PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................ 24 5. BASELINES & TRENDS ..................................................................................................................... 25 5.1. POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS (FOR CONSIDERATION WITH BOTH DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDES) ....................... 25 5.1.1. REGIONAL POPULATION .................................................................................................................... 25 5.1.2. SEX ............................................................................................................................................... 27 5.1.3. AGE .............................................................................................................................................. 27 5.1.4. ETHNICITY ...................................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.5. BIRTHPLACE ................................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.6. ACCESS TO TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS......................................................................................... 31 5.1.7. ACCESS TO MOTOR-VEHICLES ............................................................................................................. 34 5.1.8. LABOUR FORCE STATUS ..................................................................................................................... 36 5.1.9. OCCUPATION .................................................................................................................................. 37 5.1.10. FAMILY TYPE .............................................................................................................................. 39 5.2. INCIDENT PATTERNS ......................................................................................................................... 40 5.2.1. P130 POLICE PROFILE – LAND-BASED SAR INCIDENTS ........................................................................... 40 5.2.2. LAND-BASED SAR SUBJECT PROFILES ................................................................................................... 52 5.2.3. P130 POLICE PROFILE – MARINE INCIDENTS ...................................................................................... 68 5.2.4. SUBJECT PROFILE - MARINE ............................................................................................................... 78 1 Note that full lists of tables and figures are provided at the end of this document. 5.3. SPECIFIC SUB-GROUP PROFILES ........................................................................................................... 92 5.3.1. SUBJECT PROFILE – ALZHEIMER’S/DEMENTIA ....................................................................................... 94 5.3.2. SUBJECT PROFILE – 65+ AGE GROUP (MARINE AND LAND) ................................................................ 102 5.3.3. SUBJECT PROFILE – DESPONDENT ..................................................................................................... 110 5.3.4. SUBJECT PROFILE – TRAMPERS ......................................................................................................... 116 5.3.5. SUBJECT PROFILE – WALKERS .......................................................................................................... 129 5.3.6. SUBJECT PROFILE – HUNTERS........................................................................................................... 142 5.3.7. SUBJECT PROFILE – SHORE-BASED MARINE ........................................................................................ 155 5.3.8. SUBJECT PROFILE – TOURISTS .......................................................................................................... 161 6. PROJECTION SOURCES ................................................................................................................. 178 6.1. NZ POPULATION PROJECTIONS ......................................................................................................... 178 6.1.1. REGIONAL AGE PROFILE ..................................................................................................................