E.02.06-POEM-D6.2-Final Technical Report Document information Project Title POEM Project Number E.02.06 Project Manager University of Westminster Deliverable Name Final Technical Report Deliverable ID 6.2 Edition 01.01.00 Template Version 03.00.00 Task contributors University of Westminster Fundación Instituto de Investigación Innaxis Abstract Central to the POEM (Passenger-Oriented Enhanced Metrics) project is the design of new performance metrics and their evaluation through a European network simulation model under novel flight and passenger prioritisation scenarios. A normative day with full passenger itineraries is simulated. Trade-offs between the (new) flight-centric and passenger-centric metrics are explored. The propagation of delay through the network is characterised using classical and complexity science techniques. The importance of using passenger-centric metrics in fully assessing system performance is repeatedly observed, since key changes are not expressed through any of the currently-used flight metrics. Most prioritisation scenarios perform similarly for high cancellation and high delay days, thus demonstrating robustness in terms of their efficacy under increased disruption. Smaller airports are significantly implicated in the propagation of delay. Back-propagation is also an important characteristic of the persistence of delay in the network. Project E.02.06 Edition 01.01.00 6.2 – Final Technical Report Authoring & Approval Prepared By - Authors of the document. Name & Company Position & Title Date Andrew Cook / University of Westminster Project Leader 05/08/2013 Graham Tanner / University of Westminster Consortium Member Samuel Cristóbal / Innaxis Consortium Member Massimiliano Zanin / Innaxis Researcher Reviewed By - Reviewers internal to the project. Name & Company Position & Title Date Graham Tanner / University of Westminster Consortium Member 08/08/2013 Samuel Cristóbal / Innaxis Consortium Member Reviewed By - Other SESAR projects, Airspace Users, staff association, military, Industrial Support, other organisations. Name & Company Position & Title Date - - - Approved for submission to the SJU By - Representatives of the company involved in the project. Name & Company Position & Title Date Andrew Cook / University of Westminster Project Leader 10/08/2013 Rejected By - Representatives of the company involved in the project. Name & Company Position & Title Date - - - Rational for rejection - Document History Edition Date Status Author Justification New document for review by 01.00.00 10/08/2013 Deliverable Andrew Cook EUROCONTROL References to other POEM 01.01.00 30/09/2013 Final Deliverable Andrew Cook outputs made more explicit Intellectual Property Rights (foreground) Foreground owned by one or several Members or their Affiliates. 2 of 135 ©SESAR JOINT UNDERTAKING, 2013. Created by the University of Westminster and Innaxis for the SESAR Joint Undertaking within the frame of the SESAR Programme co-financed by the EU and EUROCONTROL. Reprint with approval of publisher and the source properly acknowledged. Project E.02.06 Edition 01.01.00 6.2 – Final Technical Report Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................... 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................. 9 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 10 1.1 PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT .............................................................................................................. 10 1.2 INTENDED READERSHIP ........................................................................................................................ 10 1.3 EUROPEAN UNION POLICY CONTEXT ................................................................................................... 11 1.4 INPUTS FROM OTHER PROJECTS .......................................................................................................... 11 2 SUMMARY AND UPDATE OF POEM ................................................................................................... 12 2.1 OVERVIEW AND OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................ 12 2.2 SUMMARY OF THE METRICS .................................................................................................................. 13 2.3 SUMMARY OF THE PRIORITISATION SCENARIOS ................................................................................... 14 2.4 SUMMARY AND UPDATE OF THE MODEL ............................................................................................... 16 2.4.1 Core model .................................................................................................................................. 16 2.4.2 Traffic inputs for three simulation days ................................................................................... 21 2.4.3 Assigning passengers to flights ............................................................................................... 30 2.5 MODEL CALIBRATION ............................................................................................................................ 37 3 RESULTS OF THE MODEL .................................................................................................................... 39 3.1 THE CHALLENGES OF ESTABLISHING CAUSALITY ................................................................................. 39 3.2 CLASSICAL RESULTS............................................................................................................................. 43 3.3 FACTOR ANALYSIS (DERIVED METRICS) ............................................................................................... 54 3.3.1 Review and update of the factor analytical approach ........................................................... 54 3.3.2 Applying factor analysis to the model data ............................................................................. 56 3.4 NETWORK AND COMPLEXITY ANALYSES ............................................................................................... 64 3.4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 64 3.4.2 Reactionary delay and the propagation of delay ................................................................... 66 3.4.3 Granger causality analyses ...................................................................................................... 73 3.5 COMPARATIVE INSIGHTS FROM THE ANALYTICAL METHODS ................................................................ 81 4 BEYOND POEM – A LOOK AHEAD ..................................................................................................... 83 4.1 DISSEMINATION .................................................................................................................................... 83 4.2 FURTHER RESEARCH ............................................................................................................................ 83 5 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 84 APPENDIX A KEY MODEL RULES AND VARIABLES ...................................................................... 87 APPENDIX B FINAL DATA PREPARATION AND CLEANING ....................................................... 115 APPENDIX C FACTOR ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY ...................................................................... 120 APPENDIX D PASSENGER VALUE OF TIME.................................................................................... 129 APPENDIX E BASELINE TRAFFIC DAY DISRUPTION ................................................................... 132 APPENDIX F FURTHER ANALYSES OF AIRPORT REACTIONARY DELAY ............................ 133 3 of 135 ©SESAR JOINT UNDERTAKING, 2013. Created by the University of Westminster and Innaxis for the SESAR Joint Undertaking within the frame of the SESAR Programme co-financed by the EU and EUROCONTROL. Reprint with approval of publisher and the source properly acknowledged. Project E.02.06 Edition 01.01.00 6.2 – Final Technical Report List of tables Table 1. Summary of prioritisation scenarios ........................................................................................ 15 Table 2. Rules and scenarios................................................................................................................ 15 Table 3. Cancellation event types ......................................................................................................... 22 Table 4. Article 5 (cancellation), Regulation 261 .................................................................................. 23 Table 5. Daily cancellation rates for 2012 (full year c.f. September; 2 s.f.) .......................................... 25 Table 6. Example allocation of additional cancellations ....................................................................... 29 Table 7. Identified passenger allocation issues .................................................................................... 31 Table 8. SEP10 passenger breakdown by flight leg and allocation proportion targets .......................