The Virgin Islands Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment of the Tourism Sector to Climate Change Prepared by the Conservation and Fisheries Department, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour April 2011 The Virgin Islands Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment of the Tourism Sector to Climate Change Prepared by the Conservation and Fisheries Department, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour April 2011 Authors: Angela Burnett Penn and Atoya George Geographic Information System (GIS) maps: Rozina Norris-Gumbs ii | P a g e Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... V LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... X ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................... 2 Purpose of the Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) ................................................................................ 2 Climate Change – What Is It? ................................................................................................................................. 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 13 The Virgin Islands Context and Vulnerability ....................................................................................................... 13 Knowledge Attitudes and Practices Surveys ........................................................................................................ 14 Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment ........................................................................................................... 16 Capacity Assessment ........................................................................................................................................... 19 Risk Reduction Options ........................................................................................................................................ 21 1.0 │ THE VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTEXT .......................................................................................... 23 1.1 │ Economy ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 1.2 │ The Virgin Islands Vulnerability and Adaptation Potential .......................................................................... 30 2.0 │ KNOWLEDGE ATTITUDES AND PRACTICES SURVEYS ................................................. 31 2.1 │Climate Change Tourist Perception Survey ................................................................................................ 31 2.2 │ Climate Change Tourism Sector Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) Survey .................................... 50 2.3 │ Climate Change General Public Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) Survey ..................................... 66 3.0 │ HAZARD VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...................................................... 86 iii | P a g e 3.1 │ Climate Assessment.................................................................................................................................... 86 3.2 │ Static Risk Maps – Cane Garden Bay ......................................................................................................... 148 3.3 │Beach Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................................................ 167 3.4 │Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................................... 184 3.5 │Coral Reef Vulnerability Assessment ......................................................................................................... 198 3.6 │ Risk Assessment ....................................................................................................................................... 203 4.0 │ CAPACITY ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................................... 216 4.1 │ Institutional Framework ........................................................................................................................... 216 4.2 │ Legal Framework ...................................................................................................................................... 217 4.3 │ Management Framework ......................................................................................................................... 219 4.4 │ Important Management Gaps .................................................................................................................. 223 5.0 │ RISK REDUCTION OPTIONS ............................................................................................... 225 APPENDIX 1A - TOURIST PERCEPTION SURVEY 2009 VERSION ...................................... 244 APPENDIX 1B - TOURIST PERCEPTION SURVEY 2010 VERSION ............................... 248 APPENDIX 2 - CLIMATE CHANGE TOURISM SECTOR KAP SURVEY.................................. 252 APPENDIX 3 - CLIMATE CHANGE GENERAL PUBLIC KAP SURVEY ................................... 260 APPENDIX 4 - INITIAL PLANS FOR THE REHABILITATION OF THE CANE GARDEN BAY BEACH COMMUNITY ........................................................................................................................ 265 APPENDIX 5 - SUMMARY OF ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS RELEVANT TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION & MITIGATION ..................................................................................... 283 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................... 291 iv | P a g e List of Figures Figure 0-1. Past and predicted changes in average global temperatures under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios ........................................................................................................................................ 6 Figure 0-2. The Greenhouse Effect. Excess greenhouse gases (heat trapping gases such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere are causing the average temperature of the Earth to rise. .............................. 7 Figure 0-3. Important sectors that interact with tourism also likely to be impacted by climate change.. 12 Figure 1.0-1. Map showing the larger islands and cays and the location of the Virgin Islands within the Caribbean basin .......................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 1.1-1. Growth in The Virgin Islands tourist arrivals, 1999-2008 ...................................................... 26 Figure 1.1-2. Growth in The Virgin Islands tourist expenditure, 1999-2008. ............................................. 26 Figure 1.1-3. Snapshots of the scenic beauty of the Virgin Islands. ........................................................... 27 Figure 2.1-1 Cross-section of the 191 respondents of the Tourist Perception Survey. .............................. 32 Figure 2.1-2. Respondents’ impressions of The Virgin Islands environment. ............................................. 34 Figure 2.1-3. Tourists’ impressions of the atmosphere/ambiance at popular visitor attractions in The Virgin Islands. .............................................................................................................................................. 36 Figure 2.1-4. Influence different attributes of The Virgin Islands have in attracting tourists to the Territory. ..................................................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 2.1-5. Tourists’ likelihood to vacation in the tropics if winters become milder in their country of residence. .................................................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 2.1-6. Tourists’ likelihood to vacation in The Virgin Islands if local average temperatures rose more than 4°C by the end of the Century. .................................................................................................. 39 Figure 2.1-7. Tourists’ likelihood to vacation in The Virgin Islands if the Territory experiences more severe hurricanes ........................................................................................................................................ 39 Figure 2.1-8 Effect of climate change impacts on tourists’ decision to revisit The Virgin Islands. ............. 41 Figure 2.1-9. Individuals inclined to travel less due to concerns over climate change and the linkage to flight carbon emissions ............................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 2.1-10. Individuals viewing a guarantee of good environmental practices from an internationally recognized body as an added incentive in their decision to choose a particular vacation destination or accommodation. ........................................................................................................................................