AN EX POST EVALUATION OF THE RIDERSHIP IMPACTS OF THE VIVA BUS TRANSIT SYSTEM by Robert David Forsey A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Applied Science Graduate Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto © Copyright Robert David Forsey 2011 An Ex Post Evaluation of the Ridership Impacts of the VIVA Bus Transit System by Robert David Forsey Master of Applied Science, 2011 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto ABSTRACT The Regional Municipality of York introduced a new bus service known as VIVA in 2005. Although it has been deemed a success by many, it remains to be seen to what degree transit use was affected by its introduction. This study shows that transit ridership in York jumped substantially immediately after the implementation of VIVA. Furthermore, it is determined that the majority of new transit users in York are making home-based work or post-secondary school trips. To evaluate this, home-based work and post-secondary school generalized extreme value discrete choice models are estimated. Improvements in transit service are found to have a greater impact on transit mode share than increases in congestion for both work and post-secondary school trips. It is also, however, concluded that transit improvements played a relatively small role in the considerable shift to transit amongst post-secondary students. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors Drs. Amer Shalaby and Eric Miller for their thoughtful ideas, patience, and funding. I am greatly indebted to you both for your help. Although not strictly a thesis supervisor, Dr. Khandker Nurul Habib provided considerable assistance to the modeling components of this thesis. Habib, your efforts helped me substantially increase the quality of the analytical content of my work. Thank you. I would also like to thank John, Gisèle and Thomas Forsey in Ottawa for their constant support and encouragement. My desire to pursue higher education is a result of your influence early in life. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank my girlfriend, Jacquelin Blakey for her editorial and emotional support over the last 18 months. iii Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... viii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... vii 1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................1 1.1. Research Objectives ......................................................................................................1 1.2. Thesis Organization ......................................................................................................2 2. Literature Review ................................................................................................................3 2.1. Evaluation .....................................................................................................................3 2.1.1. The Transportation Planning Process .....................................................................3 2.1.2. Ex Post Evaluation and the Problem of Causality ...................................................4 2.2. Discrete Choice Analysis ..............................................................................................7 2.2.1. Random Utility Theory ..........................................................................................8 2.2.2. The Generalized Extreme Value Model ..................................................................9 2.3. Bus Rapid Transit ....................................................................................................... 12 2.3.1. Definition............................................................................................................. 12 2.3.2. History ................................................................................................................. 14 2.4. Past Evaluative Studies ............................................................................................... 15 2.4.1. Studies of Specific Systems ................................................................................. 16 2.4.2. Other Studies ....................................................................................................... 18 2.4.3. Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 19 3. Historical and Geographical Context ................................................................................. 20 iv 3.1. York Region ............................................................................................................... 20 3.2. Peel Region ................................................................................................................. 23 3.3. York Region Transit and VIVA .................................................................................. 26 3.3.1. Overview ............................................................................................................. 26 3.3.2. Operating Characteristics of VIVA ...................................................................... 27 3.3.3. Future Plans ......................................................................................................... 33 4. Corridor Trends ................................................................................................................. 35 4.1. Patronage by Proximity to Corridors ........................................................................... 35 4.1.1. Procedure ............................................................................................................. 35 4.1.2. Results ................................................................................................................. 35 4.2. Corridor Boardings ..................................................................................................... 37 4.2.1. Yonge Street Corridor .......................................................................................... 37 4.2.2. Highway 7 Corridor ............................................................................................. 38 4.3. Discussion................................................................................................................... 40 5. Regional Trends ................................................................................................................ 42 5.1. Procedure .................................................................................................................... 42 5.1.1. The Transportation Tomorrow Survey ................................................................. 42 5.1.2. Data Retrieval ...................................................................................................... 43 5.2. Results ........................................................................................................................ 44 5.2.1. Overall ................................................................................................................. 45 5.2.2. Trip Purpose ........................................................................................................ 48 5.2.3. Age ...................................................................................................................... 51 5.2.4. Number of Vehicles ............................................................................................. 53 5.2.5. Gender ................................................................................................................. 55 5.2.6. Departure Time .................................................................................................... 57 v 5.2.7. Trip Distance ....................................................................................................... 59 5.2.8. Discussion ........................................................................................................... 61 6. Mode Choice Model .......................................................................................................... 63 6.1. Network Model ........................................................................................................... 63 6.2. Mode Choice Model Formulation ................................................................................ 66 6.3. Results ........................................................................................................................ 68 6.3.1. Validation ............................................................................................................ 69 6.3.2. Estimation of Travel Time Impacts ...................................................................... 76 6.4. Discussion................................................................................................................... 79 7. Conclusions