chapter 3 Macroeconomic Outlook 71 overview 71 sectoral Feature Article 3.1 – Gig Economy Feature Article 3.2 – Digitalisation in the Logistics Industry Feature Article 3.3 – Small and Medium Enterprises: Building Resilience to Weather Crises Information Box 3.1 – The Importance of Commodity Sector to the Malaysian Economy 92 domestic demand Feature Article 3.4 – Shadow Economy in Malaysia 97 external sector 102 prices Feature Article 3.5 – Dynamic Relationship between Consumer and Producer Price Indices 107 labour market 108 conclusion 110 references CHAPTER 3 SUMMARY: MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK MALAYSIA’S MALAYSIA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economy is Economy is Expected to -4.5% Expected to 7 Contract 21 4.3 Rebound 224.5 GDP AT CONSTANT 2015 PRICES GDP AT CURRENT PRICE GDP AT CONSTANT 2015 PRICES GDP AT CURRENT PRICE RM1,357.7 BILLION RM1,439.4 BILLION RM1,450.8 BILLION RM1,568.1 BILLION GROSS NATIONAL INCOME CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF BOP GROSS NATIONAL INCOME CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF BOP AT CURRENT PRICE AT CURRENT PRICE RM48.5 BILLION RM20.3 BILLION RM1,415.7 BILLION (3.4% OF GNI) RM1,526.5 BILLION (1.3% OF GNI) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -1.0% 4.2% 2.5% 3.5% Supply (% p.a.) Demand (% p.a.) Supply (% p.a.) Demand (% p.a.) PRIVATE -0.7% PRIVATE 7.1% SERVICES -3.7% CONSUMPTION SERVICES 7.0% CONSUMPTION 21 .1 21 . 22 3. 22 . GROSS FIXED GROSS FIXED MANUFACTURING -3.0% CAPITAL -11.1% MANUFACTURING 7.0% CAPITAL 9.5% 3. FORMATION 2.1 3. FORMATION 11.1 PUBLIC 1.6% PUBLIC 2.0% CONSTRUCTION -18.7% CONSUMPTION CONSTRUCTION 13.9% CONSUMPTION .1 2. 1. 1. MINING -7.8% EXPORTS -13.4% MINING 4.1% EXPORTS 8.7% 2. 1.3 . 13.4 AGRICULTURE -1.2% IMPORTS -11.9% AGRICULTURE 4.7% IMPORTS 9.2% 2. 2.5 1.2 11. CHAPTER 3 SUMMARY: MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK MALAYSIA’S MALAYSIA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economy is Economy is Expected to -4.5% Expected to 7 Contract 21 4.3 Rebound 224.5 GDP AT CONSTANT 2015 PRICES GDP AT CURRENT PRICE GDP AT CONSTANT 2015 PRICES GDP AT CURRENT PRICE RM1,357.7 BILLION RM1,439.4 BILLION RM1,450.8 BILLION RM1,568.1 BILLION GROSS NATIONAL INCOME CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF BOP GROSS NATIONAL INCOME CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF BOP AT CURRENT PRICE AT CURRENT PRICE RM48.5 BILLION RM20.3 BILLION RM1,415.7 BILLION (3.4% OF GNI) RM1,526.5 BILLION (1.3% OF GNI) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -1.0% 4.2% 2.5% 3.5% Supply (% p.a.) Demand (% p.a.) Supply (% p.a.) Demand (% p.a.) PRIVATE -0.7% PRIVATE 7.1% SERVICES -3.7% CONSUMPTION SERVICES 7.0% CONSUMPTION 21 .1 21 . 22 3. 22 . GROSS FIXED GROSS FIXED MANUFACTURING -3.0% CAPITAL -11.1% MANUFACTURING 7.0% CAPITAL 9.5% 3. FORMATION 2.1 3. FORMATION 11.1 PUBLIC 1.6% PUBLIC 2.0% CONSTRUCTION -18.7% CONSUMPTION CONSTRUCTION 13.9% CONSUMPTION .1 2. 1. 1. MINING -7.8% EXPORTS -13.4% MINING 4.1% EXPORTS 8.7% 2. 1.3 . 13.4 AGRICULTURE -1.2% IMPORTS -11.9% AGRICULTURE 4.7% IMPORTS 9.2% 2. 2.5 1.2 11. chapter 3 macroeconomic outlook 70 economic outlook 2021 chapter 3 macroeconomic outlook chapter 3 Macroeconomic Outlook Overview Sectoral Gradual economic recovery in the second half of Services Sector 2020 before normalising in 2021 New norms accelerate the growth of the digital The Malaysian economy experienced the economy full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, with the real The services sector contracted by 6.7% in the gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by first half of 2020 largely due to worldwide 17.1%. The contraction was mainly attributed travel bans, domestic movement restrictions and quarantines, which severely affected to the imposition of the Movement Control the tourism-related subsectors and airlines. Order (MCO) to contain the outbreak. Though Among the subsectors that have been severely affecting all sectors in the economy, the move affected include wholesale and retail trade, was necessary to flatten the COVID-19 curve food & beverages and accommodation, and save lives. Hence, the Government has transportation and storage as well as real announced several stimulus packages totalling estate and business services. Nevertheless, RM305 billion to support both households and the information and communication subsector businesses. Reinforced by the reopening of expanded as online transactions increased the economy in phases, growth is expected to significantly during the MCO. The services improve gradually during the second half of sector is expected to record a smaller decline the year, cushioning the significant contraction of 1% in the second half of the year, reflecting the gradual resumption of economic activities. in the first half. Thus, Malaysia’s GDP is Overall, the sector is projected to contract by expected to contract by 4.5% in 2020, before 3.7% in 2020 before rebounding by 7% in 2021. rebounding between 6.5% – 7.5% in 2021. With the normalisation of economic activities With the bold and swift measures undertaken, in 2021, all subsectors are projected to record Malaysia has been recognised as one of the positive growth. most successful countries in managing the socio-economic impact of the pandemic. TABLE 3.1. GDP by Sector, 2019 – 2021 Although domestic demand is expected to (at constant 2015 prices) remain soft throughout 2020, there are signs of recovery in the second half of the year, SHARE CHANGE particularly in private consumption. On the (%) (%) 1 1 2 external front, the collapse in global demand 2020 2019 2020 2021 and world trade led to a decline in exports Services 58.1 6.1 -.7 7.0 during the year. However, current account Manufacturing 22.6 .8 -.0 7.0 of the balance of payments is expected to Agriculture 7.4 2.0 -1.2 4.7 remain in surplus. On the supply side, all sectors are expected to contract, affected by Mining 6.9 -2.0 -7.8 4.1 the unprecedented crisis. Nevertheless, the Construction 4.0 0.1 -18.7 1.9 pace of improvement gathered momentum in GDP 100.0 4.3 -4.5 6.5 – 7.5 the third quarter, especially in the services and manufacturing sectors, with the resumption of 1 Estimate economic activities. 2 Forecast Note: Total may not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component Source: Department of Statistics and Ministry of Finance, Malaysia economic outlook 2021 71 chapter 3 macroeconomic outlook The wholesale and retail trade subsector TABLE 3.2. Services Sector Performance, contracted by 10.8% in the first half of 2020 2019 – 2021 due to disruptions in the global and domestic (at constant 2015 prices) supply chains. The subsector is expected to record a smaller decline by 1.9% in the second SHARE CHANGE half of the year with the gradual resumption (%) (%) of business operations, online platforms, 2020¹ 2019 2020¹ 20212 cash assistance, sales campaigns and sales Wholesale and retail 28.8 6.7 -6.1 8.5 tax exemption for the purchase of new cars. trade For the year, the subsector is projected to contract by 6.1%. The subsector is anticipated Finance and insurance 11.8 4.6 -0.1 5.5 to rebound by 8.5% in 2021, supported by all Information and 11.4 6.6 6.4 7.9 segments. The wholesale segment is expected communication to be backed by food-related industries. At Real estate and business 7.7 7.8 -11.6 7.6 the same time, the expansion in e-commerce services activities will support the retail segment. The Transportation and 6.0 6.8 -11.9 7.5 growth of the motor vehicles segment will storage be underpinned by the introduction of new Food & beverages and 5.5 9.6 -1. 10.7 models and higher household disposable accommodation income. Utilities 4.9 6.0 1.7 5.7 The information and communication Other services 8.2 5.5 -8.1 6.2 subsector expanded by 5.8% in the first half Government services 15.7 .7 4.0 .7 of 2020, primarily supported by higher usage 100.0 6.1 -3.7 7.0 of internet, particularly online transactions, Services entertainments, educational and work from 1 Estimate home (WFH) activities. The subsector is 2 Forecast projected to expand further by 7.1% in the Note: Total may not add up due to rounding Source: Department of Statistics and Ministry of Finance, Malaysia second half of the year buoyed by various Government initiatives. The initiatives include a tax exemption of up to RM5,000 for moratorium and slower lending activities. information, communication and technology Nonetheless, the better performance of the (ICT) equipment to support WFH activities insurance segment reflects the increase in life and individual income tax relief of up to insurance subscriptions, which partly cushioned RM2,500 on the purchase of digital devices. the overall decline of the subsector. The trend For the year, the subsector is anticipated to is expected to continue in the second half accelerate by 6.4% as WFH activities, virtual following the extension of moratorium to communication and online businesses become targeted borrowers. Overall for the year, the the new normal. In 2021, the subsector is subsector is expected to contract marginally projected to expand by 7.9%, with the fifth- by 0.1% with the expansion in the insurance generation cellular network (5G) spectrum segment, reflecting the net impact of higher facilitating e-commerce and e-learning premiums amid lower claims.