COUNCIL/COMMISSION JOINT MEETING: VISION PLAN DIRECTION TONIGHT’S MEETING •Why are we doing this Plan? •Review of the Public Outreach Process •Results of the “Big Idea” Polling •What’s Realistic and Feasible? •Discussion and direction from the Council and Commission. THE LEAL SPECIFIC PLAN AREA The Leal Specific Plan Is An Opportunity For The City To Re- imagine The Leal Property As A Regional Destination. The Leal property is a major opportunity to create a legacy for future generations. THE PLANNING AREA 160+/- ACRES AT LIMONITE/HAMNER AVENUES OVERALL GOALS From the Eastvale General Plan: “… the City supports the development of a mixed-use project in cooperation with the property owner/developer. Potential uses: Retail, Office, Civic, Hotel, Multi-family residential, Recreation/Entertainment.” THE SPECIFIC PLAN The Leal Specific Plan will create detailed planning standards to ensure that the City’s goals for the property are achieved. The Specific Plan will guide future development, which will likely take place over a period of years. MAKING THE PLAN REALITY What is the City’s Role? The City of Eastvale is preparing the the Specific Plan for the property. The City will recoup the price of the Plan through developer fees. MAKING THE PLAN REALITY Who Will Pay for the Development? Development of the Leal property will be entirely funded by private enterprise. Other than the preparation of the Specific Plan, no City funding will be involved in the development of the project. STEP ONE: DEFINE THE VISION What is the “Big Idea” for the Leal Specific Plan? What will become the theme around which the project will develop? The City reached out to the residents via social media to seek ideas. Thousands of residents participated. BIG IDEAS Public response to the call for ideas was unprecedented. In thousands of written responses, Eastvale’s residents suggested a wide range of potential “Big Ideas” CANDIDATE “BIG IDEAS” Lifestyle Centers Amusement Arts/Cultural Concerts/Special Events Venue Indoor Regional Mall University or Community College Hospital/ Medical Center Recreation Downtown Giant Cow Statue 1950s Main Street Civic Uses Sports Hotel/Resort ONLINE POLLING An online poll was created. Almost 2,000 responses were received. The results … POLLING RESULTS #6: Concerts (18.0%, 355 responses) #7: Hospital/Medical Center (13.9%, 273) #8: Civic Uses (11.8%, 232) #9: 1950s Main Street (10.6%, 209) #10: University/College (8.7%, 171) #11: Sports (7.9%, 156) #12: Hotel/Resort (3.0%, 60) #13: Giant Cow Statue (2.3%, 45) POLLING RESULTS #1: Lifestyle Center (76.7%, 1,511 responses) #2: Downtown (31.1%, 612) #3: Indoor Regional Mall (25.5%, 502) #4: Amusement (24.2%, 476) #5: Arts/Cultural (20.7%, 408) PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS • Changing Taste of Retail: Retail Trends Overview • Demographic Overview • Existing Competition Maps • Preliminary Feasibility & Impact Summary CHANGING TASTE OF RETAIL: RETAIL TRENDS OVERVIEW RETAIL ISN’T JUST RETAIL…ANYMORE Objective of a retail strategy has changed for new projects • Big Box is wrong as only primary target … experience and entertainment component are primary today. Think “out of the big box” … Alternate uses such as education, medical, housing, civic are all possibilities • Back to the Village Square and Town Center – retail no longer isolated use … “place” may be today’s anchor • Tenant mix is elusive (who to invest in is a key decision) • Cities should be engaged in retail leasing strategy & program and proper mix of uses … market metrics should include internet demographics as well as bricks and mortar • Move from Products to Experience means consumption will be more a function of the number of “trips” to a center … City zoning and approval processes should be in synch with tenants that attract trips SHOPPING CENTER DEVELOPMENT STALLED THE ITCHES THE INTERNET DOESN’T SCRATCH It’s where people have to be and where they want to be: 1. Restaurants and Bars – you can’t eat or drink on the web 2. Grocery Stores and Health Clubs 3. “Place” is the new Anchor Tenant 4. Experiences as the main event – theaters, performances, tasting stations, fashion shows 5. Cars – sitting in and test driving the new vehicle … have you considered a TESLA?! RETAIL TRENDS – THE CHANGING FORMATS 1. Retailer formats are smaller and more flexible with layouts 2. Big Box Retailers with small formats are penetrating urban markets (City Target; Wal-Mart Neighborhood Market; Best Buy Mobile) 3. “Discount” & Dollar stores are taking over in 2014 • Dollar General (700 new stores), Family Dollar (445 net new stores) • Same merchandise typically 30-40% less than at typ. Drugstore, 15-20% cheaper than typ. Grocery store 4. Outlet Malls - Major retailers want to be in them RETAIL TRENDS – DEVELOPMENT & INVESTMENT 1. Targeted Large Scale Ground up Development can work 1. Supply, demand, tenant mix, format have to be in balance … think districts 2. Developers & lenders more selective due to economic contraction, supply overhang and shift to internet sales 3. Cap rates low again but only for most valued sites; what’s desired is as expensive as it’s ever been 2. Transactions: Quality over Quantity; Urban over Suburban 3. Brick and Mortar will generally continue to be in demand in underserved and urban markets and in more urban formats 4. Grocery-anchored Neighborhood Centers rebounding fastest 5. Restaurant Remodeling & Expansion: McDonalds, Starbucks, BJ’s RETAIL DEVELOPMENT – TOOLS FOR CITIES Cities have 4 BASIC “NON-RDA” TOOLS for Retail Projects Real Estate & Property Land Use / Retail Special Zoning Districts Development (Tourism, (Higher Density; Project BIDs, etc.) Parking) Rebate of Taxes / Revenues Theses tools often work best when used together WHAT CITIES NEED TO KNOW ABOUT RETAIL TODAY 1. California’s Budget Structure Still Favors Retail based on the Mighty Sales Tax $, but land use decisions may shift as online retail changes “points of sale” to distribution centers. 2. Place making, entertainment and consumption is the key – you can’t eat over the internet and you can’t drink online either 3. Keep track of where people NEED to and WANT to show up in person (grocery stores, restaurants and bars, outlet centers) – that is your customer and sales tax source 4. The old are getting older and the young are getting more connected … 5. Retail Projects: Site-Specific Tax Reimbursements, utility bonds, lease-leaseback financing… this is not your father’s toolbox DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW CITY LIMITS & RADII Eastvale City Limits 10 Miles 20 Miles 30 Miles Note: Radii from Limonite Ave and Hamner Ave Source: ESRI (2013) POPULATION & INCOME (CITY & RADII) Radii (from Limonite and Hamner) 2013 City 10 Miles 20 Miles 30 Miles Population 60,316 1,008,436 2,945,138 6,706,248 Households 15,147 280,548 857,325 1,991,379 Average HH Size 3.98 3.52 3.37 3.31 Median Age 31.0 31.6 32.8 33.8 % Hispanic Origin 42.2% 58.1% 50.8% 48.8% Per Capita Income $29,132 $22,939 $25,537 $25,808 Median HH Income $103,607 $64,630 $65,677 $64,115 Average HH Income $115,999 $80,897 $86,328 $85,761 2013-2018 Ann. Growth Rate Population 2.64% 1.23% 0.97% 0.88% Median HH Income 0.94% 3.46% 3.39% 3.62% Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010); ESRI (2013) EXISTING COMPETITION MAPS MAJOR SHOPPING CENTERS (“GLA”) 30 Miles 20 Miles Victoria Gardens 650,000 GLA 10 Miles The Shoppes at Chino Hills 400,000 GLA Eastvale Gateway 848,000 GLA Moreno Valley Mall at Towngate 1,090,000 GLA South Coast Plaza 2,800,000 GLA Note: See appendix for shopping center detail Source: ESRI, Directory of Major Malls (2013) AMUSEMENT / WATER PARKS Disneyland * Circle represents 20-mile radius from Site ARTS / MUSEUMS * Circle represents 20-mile radius from Site HOSPITALS / MEDICAL CENTERS San Antonio Community Hospital Montclair Hospital Medical Center Arrowhead Regional Medical Center Pomona Valley Hospital Medical Center Community Hospital of San Bernardino San Dimas Community Hospital Chino Valley Medical Center Riverside Community Hospital Corona Regional Medical Center Placentia Linda Hospital * Circle represents 20-mile radius from Site LIBRARIES * Circle represents 10-mile radius from Site HOTELS * Circle represents 10-mile radius from Site PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY & IMPACT SUMMARY PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY & IMPACT SUMMARY Feasibility / Fiscal Development Type Response Appropriate Impact Lifestyle Centers (e.g. Victoria Gardens) 76.7% LOW HIGH Downtown / Town Center (e.g. Claremont Village) 31.1% HIGH HIGH Indoor Regional Mall (e.g. South Coast Plaza) 25.5% LOW HIGH Amusement (e.g. Water Park, Aquarium, Zoo) 24.2% MED HIGH Arts / Cultural (e.g. Museum, Cultural Arts Center) 20.7% MED MED Concerts / Special Events Venue (e.g. LA Live, Convention Center) 18.0% LOW HIGH Hospital / Medical Center 13.9% MED MED Civic Uses (e.g. Library, City Hall) 11.8% HIGH LOW 1950s Main Street 10.6% MED MED University / Community College 8.7% LOW LOW Sports (e.g. Stadium, Complex) 7.9% LOW HIGH Recreation (e.g. Golf, RV Park) 5.0% MED MED Hotel / Resort 3.0% HIGH HIGH Giant Cow Statue 2.3% LOW LOW PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY & IMPACT SUMMARY HIGH • Lifestyle Center • Indoor Regional Mall • Concert / Special Events Center • Downtown / Town Center • Sports • Hotel / Resort • Amusement Fiscal Impact • University / Community College • Giant Cow Statue • Civic Uses • Arts / Cultural • Hospital Medical Center • 1950’s Main Street • Recreation LOW HIGH LOW Feasibility / Appropriate Notes: Bubble size represents survey response percentage. For illustrative purposes only. HIGH LEVEL SUMMARY 1. Retail is ever changing and experience and place are driving new brick and mortar projects 2. Economy is slowly coming back and large scale projects will require long term phasing 3. A mix of retail targeted to local demographics (e.g., family and activity oriented restaurants), entertainment/ recreational and civic uses may be most appropriate for initial phasing of Leal project 4.