October 2013 Monthly Forecast 2 In Hindsight: Chapter Overview VII 3 Status Update since our September Forecast Azerbaijan will preside over the Council in October. likely respectively by Ladsous and Assistant Sec- 4 Democratic Republic of At press time, the Council was poised to adopt a retary-General for Political Affairs, Tayé-Brook the Congo resolution on the Syrian chemical weapons issue. Zerihoun; 5 Visiting Mission to The situation in Syria will likely continue to garner • UN Interim Security Force for Abyei by its head, Africa a significant level of Council activity in October. Yohannes Tesfamariam (via videoconferencing); 6 Sudan and South In early October, Council members will be • the implementation of resolution 1559 con- Sudan on a visiting mission to several locations in Africa, cerning Lebanon by Special Envoy Terje Rød- including Addis Ababa, Kigali, Goma, Kampala Larsen; and 8 Sudan (Darfur) and Kinshasa. • Western Sahara, by Wolfgang Weisbrod-Weber, 9 Somalia Azerbaijan is planning three open debates on: the head of the UN Mission for the Referen- 11 Mali • Council working methods; dum in Western Sahara and by the Secretary- 12 Western Sahara • women peace and security, with a briefing by General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, 13 Lebanon the Secretary-General and the new head of UN Christopher Ross. Women, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka; and The annual private meeting with the President 14 Israel/Palestine • the Middle East, most likely with a briefing by of the International Court of Justice, Peter Tomka, 16 Afghanistan Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs is also planned. 17 Haiti Jeffrey Feltman. Additionally, formal sessions will be needed to 18 Cooperation Briefings are expected: adopt resolutions: with Regional • by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and • renewing the mandate of UN Stabilisation Mis- and Subregional Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Secretary- sion in Haiti; Organisations General Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu on cooperation • renewing the authorisation of the International 19 Security Council between the UN and the OIC, with a high-level Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan; and Working Methods representative of Azerbaijan presiding; and • modifying the mandate of the UN Integrated 20 Women, Peace and • on the visiting mission to Africa, by the various Peacebuilding Office in the Central African Security leaders of different legs of the trip. Republic. 22 Annual Report of the Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely A formal session will likewise be needed to adopt Security Council on: the introduction (drafted by the US) to the annu- 23 Security Council • the situation in the Great Lakes region and the al report of the Security Council to the General Elections 2013 work of UN Organization Stabilization Mission Assembly. 24 Notable Dates for in the DRC (MONUSCO) by the Secretary- On 17 October the General Assembly is sched- October General’s Special Representative and head of uled to hold elections to fill five seats on the Secu- MONUSCO, Martin Kobler, and the Secre- rity Council for the period from 1 January 2014 Supplement Security Council tary-General’s Special Envoy to the Great Lakes through 31 December 2015 to replace exiting Deadlocks and Uniting Region, Mary Robinson; members Azerbaijan, Guatemala, Morocco, Paki- for Peace: An Abridged • the situation in Mali by the head of the UN stan and Togo.• History Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mis- sion in Mali, Albert Gerard Koenders; • the latest Secretary-General’s report on the AU/ UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur, by Under- 30 September 2013 Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. Hervé Ladsous; and • the situation in Somalia and three related reports For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please by the Deputy Secretary-General, Jan Eliasson. subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” Briefings in consultations are likely on: series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. • Sudan and South Sudan issues, twice, most Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Chapter VII Permanent members have worked overtime to constitute a threat to international peace should additional measures be necessary”, for nearly two weeks to codify into a Security and security” although Resolution 1970, as well as resolutions 1737, 1747, 1803 and Council decision the 14 September Russia-US likewise adopted under Chapter VII, con- 1929 on Iran. agreement to secure and dismantle chemical tained no explicit Article 39 determination. • Although the UN Charter does not express- weapons stockpiles in Syria. With the issue of • Even when the Security Council does use ly prescribe a particular form for adopting whether the Council acts under Chapters VI or its Chapter VII powers, it is not essential binding decisions, Security Council prac- VII of the UN Charter, and whether it does so for the decision to be binding to have an tice suggests that resolutions are the pri- in a binding manner, at the core of these nego- explicit reference to Chapter VII or a par- mary vehicle for binding decisions. Presi- tiations, it may be worthwhile to take a closer ticular article thereof. In an apparent effort dential statements and press statements are look at this matter. There seems to be some to increase clarity, however, the Council has not used as vehicles for such decisions. uncertainty as to the difference between Chap- of late prefaced resolutions or provisions • Security Council decisions bind mem- ters VI and VII, and also about what makes a under Chapter VII with an explicit refer- ber states and the UN itself—but there is Council decision binding under international ence to its “acting under Chapter VII”. uncertainty regarding non-member states law. • Resolutions adopted under Chapter VII and regional organisations. Sometimes Interpretation of Security Council resolu- may also (and usually do) include provi- decisions address individuals and non-state tions is a complex art. As determined by the sions which are non-binding. actors with the intent to bind such parties. International Court of Justice in its advisory • Chapter VII powers must be used to autho- It remains to be seen how this practice will opinion of 21 June 1971 (Namibia), “the lan- rise Security Council-mandated sanctions evolve over time. guage of a resolution of the Security Council regimes—although an explicit reference to • Uncertain consent by the party concerned, should be carefully analysed before a conclu- Chapter VII or Article 41 more specifically unease about legal ambiguity and deploy- sion can be made as to its binding effect. In is not essential. ment in increasingly hostile operational view of the nature of the powers under Article • Chapter VII powers must be likewise used environments have increasingly led the 25, the question whether they have been in to authorise the use of force, either by a Security Council to authorise UN opera- fact exercised is to be determined in each case, UN peacekeeping operation or by member tions and the use of force with explicit refer- having regard to the terms of the resolution to states—but again an explicit reference to ence to Chapter VII. be interpreted, the discussions leading to it, the Chapter VII or Article 42 more specifically • The practical conduct of UN peacekeep- Charter provisions invoked and, in general, all is not essential. ing operations—and whether force is actu- circumstances that might assist in determining • At times, the Security Council has sought ally used or not—is typically more strong- the legal consequences of the resolution of the to include a precise reference to the article ly influenced by other factors such as the Security Council” (para. 114). With the above on which the measures imposed are based, concept of operations and the rules of in mind, the following guidelines may therefore most frequently Article 41, to exclude any engagement rather than the language of the be helpful in determining whether a particular inference that the Council might be includ- mandate itself as expressed in the relevant Council decision or provision is binding: ing measures under Article 42. Recent Council decision. • Decisions of a binding nature can be adopt- examples include resolutions 1718, 1874, • Since the end of the Cold War, the Security ed by the Security Council using its general 1928 and 2094 on DPRK, which read Council has shifted its emphasis markedly powers under Articles 24 and 25 of the UN “acting under Chapter VII… and taking increasing its adoption of Chapter VII reso- Charter without reference to either Chap- measures under its Article 41”, as well as lutions or resolutions with Chapter VII pro- ters VI or VII. resolutions 1737, 1747, 1803 and 1929 on visions. Whereas only 10 of the 37 resolu- • Chapter VII is usually invoked following an Iran, 1970 and 2009 on Libya and 2048 on tions adopted in 1990 were under Chapter Article 39 determination by the Security Guinea-Bissau. VII (27.0 percent), 32 of the 53 resolutions Council that there has been a “threat to • At times, the Security Council has like- adopted in 2012 made reference to Chapter the peace, breach of the peace, or act of wise sought to exclude any inference that it VII (60.4 percent). aggression”. An explicit reference to Article might be including measures under Article 39 or to the nature of the determination 42 in underlining that a further Council For a more detailed analysis, see