01/07/2020 WEBINAR COUNTRY FOCUS POLONIA Torino, 29 giugno 2020 FOOD & BEVERAGES MADE IN ITALY IN POLONIA SITUAZIONE E PROSPETTIVE PRE E POST PANDEMIA E OPPORTUNITA' DI BUSINESS PER LE AZIENDE ITALIANE Davide Stefanini – Varsavia 29.06.2020 2 1 01/07/2020 Sommario : - situazione mercato Retail in Polonia pre-Covid19 - situazione mercato Ho.Re.Ca. in Polonia pre-Covid19 - cambiamenti indotti dalla pandemia - prospettive e opportunità post pandemia Situazione mercato Retail in Polonia preprepre-pre ---Covid19Covid19 2 01/07/2020 Retail universe: food retail outlets Food retailing ≈95 600 ≈3,6% Large-format stores Small-format stores & specialty food ≈8 094 ≈3,4% ≈87 500 ≈4,2% Hypermarkets ≈0,4% Grocery large */ medium ≈4,8% 490 ≈25 720 Grocery small ≈4,3% Supermarkets * ≈38 850 ≈3 542 ≈6,0% (1 454 foreign ; 2 088 Polish) Specialty food Discount stores ≈1,5% ≈22 930 ≈3,2% 4 062 change vs. 2017 © GfK 2019 | Strategic Report 2019 | March 2019 Foreign hypermarkets Number of outlets Average selling Retail chain area [m 2] 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Auchan (Auchan) 1) 12 000 25 26 26 27 28 41 52 77 77 74 Bi1 (Schiever Polska) 10 000 - - - - - - 5 7 7 7 Carrefour (Carrefour) 7 000 82 82 84 83 96 99 84 86 89 89 E. Leclerc (E. Leclerc) 2) 6 000 13 13 13 13 14 16 16 17 18 21 Intermarche (ITM Polska) 2 500 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Kaufland (Schwarz Group) 2 500 127 143 150 163 171 182 202 203 206 208 Real (Metro) 8 500 54 54 54 53 57 45 18 - - - Tesco (Tesco) 7 000 62 68 80 85 85 89 89 90 89 89 TOTAL 364 388 409 426 453 474 468 482 488 490 1) In 2014, Auchan Group acquired 49 Real hypermarkets which rebranding was finished in 2016 2) The E.Leclerc Polska Group strengthened its structure by commencing official cooperation with the Frac chain, which in July 2018 joined the Galec purchasing group. The partnership concerns, among others jointly negotiating business terms with suppliers of both networks. The Frac chain runs 17 stores in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship and 3 outlets in Warsaw. In 2017, its annual turnover reached approx. PLN 262 million. Source: GfK desk research 3 01/07/2020 Polish and foreign discount stores Number of outlets Average selling Retail chain Owner area [m 2] 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Aldi Aldi 800 40 49 61 64 79 92 105 118 124 132 Biedronka JMP 600 1466 1649 1873 2083 2393 2587 2667 2722 2823 2900 Dyskont Czerwona Czerwona 700 - - - - 5 31 - - - - Torebka Torebka Ledi Eko Holding 500 - - - - 14 16 16 16 16 - Lidl 4) Schwarz Group 1 200 ~360 ~400 ~400 ~450 ~500 520 ~580 ~600 ~630 ~635 Netto Netto 700 184 212 241 276 314 334 354 360 368 ~370 Społem „S” Społem 190 45 47 45 47 47 47 ~40 ~40 ~40 ~25 TOTAL 2095 2357 2660 2920 3352 3627 3762 3856 4001 4062 Source: GfK desk research Development of discount stores in Poland from 2000 + estimation 6000 ~ 4800 5000 4062 4001 3762 3856 4000 3627 3352 2920 3000 2660 2357 2095 1868 1713 2000 1582 1596 Numberof discount stores 1274 1357 1149 995 1046 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 4 01/07/2020 Situazione mercato Ho.Re.Ca. in Polonia preprepre-pre ---Covid19Covid19 Retail universe: HoReCa outlets HoReCa ≈59 770 ≈2,2% Restaurants ≈11 030 ≈6,7% Hotel restaurants ≈1 980 ≈10,0% Cafes ≈6 470 ≈6,1% Pubs ≈9 680 ≈5,2% Night clubs ≈1 350 ≈1,5% Fast foods ≈14 040 ≈2,6% Bars/ lunch bars ≈11 250 ≈2,0% Top15 chains * ≈3 970 ≈1,1% * TOP 15 catering chains: Stop Café, McDonald’s, Wild Bean Café, KFC, DaGrasso, Cukiernia Sowa, Grycan, Costa Coffee, TelePizza, Subway, Pizza Hut, Sphinx, Olimp, Gusto Dominium, Piwiarnia Warka Source: GfK „store census”, GUS, desk research, second half of 2018 © GfK 2019 | Strategic Report 2019 | March 2019 change vs. 2017 5 01/07/2020 Total market value NUMBER OF CATERING OUTLETS ≅ 40.63 bn PLN ≅ ≅≅≅ 74 150 3.1 % ≅ 12.5 % TOP 15 CATERING CHAINS** HoReCa OUTLETS SEASONAL OUTLETS ≅ 3 970 ≅ 1.1% ≅ 55 800 ≅ 2.3% ≅ 14 380 ≅≅≅ 7.0 % Number of outlets: Restaurants Hotel restaurants Cafés Pubs Night clubs Fast foods Bars/ lunch bars ≅ 11 030 ≅ 1 980 ≅ 6 470 ≅ 9 680 ≅ 1 350 ≅ 14 040 ≅ 11 250 7% 10 % 6% 5% 1% 3% 6% Average daily sales* ≅ 3 110 ≅ 4 360 ≅ 1 390 ≅ 1 100 ≅ 2 340 ≅ 1 080 ≅ 1 340 ≅ 1 630 [PLN]: 22 % 17 % 3% 4% 18 % 9% 8% 7% Annual sales ≅ 11.54 ≅ 2.90 ≅ 3.02 ≅ 3.59 ≅ 1.06 ≅ 5.11 ≅ 5.08 ≅ 1.97 [bn PLN]: 30 % 29 % 9% 9% 19 % 12 % 10 % 15 % Change vs. last year Long term dynamics 60 +7% 90.000 +8% vs 2015 80.000 50 +10% vs 2010 vs 2005 74.150 70.000 69.150 Number of outlets 40 64.185 60.000 58.400 +36% 50.000 30 vs 2015 +23% 40.000 vs 2010 20 +29% ≅ 40,63 30.000 vs 2005 mld PLN ≅ 29,94 20.000 Annual[mld Sales PLN] ≅ 24,40 mld PLN 10 ≅ 18,90 mld PLN mld PLN 10.000 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2018 +X% = % growth vs PP 6 01/07/2020 The average daily turnoverturnoverin all-year and seasonal outlets have increased significantly, exceeding the level of 1 700 PLN in HoReCa outlets and 1 600 PLN in seasonal outlets. Daily sales value* in HoReCa and seasonal outlets 2.500 zł 2.000 zł 1.720 zł 1.545 zł 1.410 zł 1.500 zł 1.310 zł 1.330 zł 1.310 zł 1.350 zł HoReCa 1.300 zł 1.280 zł 1.300 zł 1.000 zł 500 zł 0 zł Average Average daily [PLN] sales 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 N=637 N=619 N=672 N=700 N=690 N=768 N=543 N=560 N=545 N=592 2.500 zł 2.000 zł 1.630 zł 1.520 zł 1.420 zł 1.510 zł 1.460 zł 1.510 zł 1.500 zł 1.310 zł 1.290 zł 1.200 zł 1.260 zł Seasonal 1.000 zł 500 zł 0 zł Average Average daily [PLN] sales 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 N=187 N=188 N=204 N=205 N=213 N=226 N=142 N=154 N=157 N=146 Almost the half of HoReCa outlets have their own websitewebsite–website these are mainly hotel restaurants, night clubs/ discos and restaurants. What’s more, HoReCa outlets have increased their presence in social media – more than the half of them have a social network profile. Having a website 48 % HoReCa N=592 2% 82% 6% 74% 68% % % of outlets 52% 41% 31% 40% 22% 10% 7% 17% 10% 4% 14% 4% 7% Restaurant Restaurant in hotel Cafe Pub Night club Fast food Lunch bar Seasonal Having a social network profile N=146 HoReCa N=592 56 % 5% 74% 70% 70% 70% % % of outlets 47% 49% 45% 30% 13% 3% 6% 5% 7% 5% 6% 8% Restaurant Restaurant in hotel Cafe Pub Night club Fast food Lunch bar Seasonal N=146 Change vs. last year (shown if 2% or more) 7 01/07/2020 Percentage of Poles visiting catering outlets has increased vs. last year, reaching the highest level in ten years. Also average monthly expenses on eating outouthave increased up to 106 PLN. The average monthly frequency dropped slightly to 3.4 visits per month. % of consumers who visit catering outlets among all 15+ year-old Poles 60% 54% 52% 49% 42% 46% 46% 44% 46% 46% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Avg. monthly expenses on eating out [ in PLN ] 140 PLN 5 106 PLN 120 PLN 95 PLN 97 PLN 98 PLN 94 PLN 90 PLN 92 PLN 94 PLN 4 100 PLN 86 PLN 89 PLN 80 PLN 3,7 3 60 PLN 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,0 3,1 3,2 3,2 40 PLN 2,9 2,9 2 20 PLN 0 PLN 1 Avg. monthly frequency of visits Source: GfK Omnibus 2018 Pizzerias and restaurants are the most popular type of outletsoutlets. Among them, the top positions belong to McDonald’s and KFC (despite the decline vs. year 2017). % of consumers who visit respective type of catering outlet among all catering outlet visitors 60 % % of Poles visiting catering outlets 8% 32% 24% 16% 15% 13% 9% 8% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Other than than Other chained Pub Cafe Pizzeria Milk bar Fast food Kebabbar Food truck Restaurant Tavern/ inn Burger place Pancake point Bar/Lunch Bar outlet Dumpling point Hotel restaurant Night club/ disco Chinese food outlet Bar with home meals Beer garden/ seasonal NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW NEW 8% Catering point gas at station 56% 1% of consumers visit: North Fish, Pizza 8% Dominium, Salad Story, Domino’s Pizza, Gruby Benek, Green Caffé Nero, 27% Biesiadowo 13% 8% 7% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Chains KFC Sphinx Grycan McCafe Subway Manekin Pizza Hut Telepizza Stop Cafe Da Grasso KebabKing Burger King McDonald's Costa Coffee NEW Wild Bean Cafe Cukiernia Sowa Chłopskie Jadło Piwiarnia Warka Starbucks Coffee Change vs.