This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu TO: Senator Dole FR: Kerry RE: Clay Shaw Event March 13, 1994 Fort Lauderdale, Florida *Event is a reception for 75-100 people in a private home. They're looking for a few minutes of informal remarks. *A former Mayor of Fort Lauderdale, Shaw was first elected to Congress in 1980. Shaw had a tough race in a newly-reapportioned district in 1992, spending over $1 million, and eventually winning with 52%-37%. (11% was divided among four other candidates) *Shaw spent his first eight years in Congress on the Judiciary Committee, and then transferred over to Ways and Means. He cast decisive votes in Committee for the Catastrophic Health Care program, but quickly came out for repeal in 1989. *During the ABC child care bill, he joined with Congressman Stenholm to sponsor the alternative based on the theory that parents, rather than government bureaucrats, can make best decisions on child care. The alternative failed, but bill sponsors had to move in their direction to get a bill passed. *Shaw's staff said that he is now focusing his attention on welfare reform, where he has introduced a bill to take most people off welfare after two years, and require them to work for continued benefits. Page 1 of 20 This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu March 10, 1994 MEMORANDUM TO THE LEADER FROM: SUZANNE HELLMANN RE: FLORIDA FILING DEADLINE: May 13 PRIMARY: September 8 SENATE RACE (See NRSC briefing for political update) Latest polling conducted 2/4-7 surveyed 816 registered voters: (Ft. Lauderdale SUN-SENTINEL) FAV/UNFAV ID MACK RE-ELECT Mack 57% / 11% 95% re-elect 51% Freedman 16 / 1 40 consider other 32 Rodham s I 1 39 replace 12 Clinton 44 / 36 HYPOTHETICAL GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS Mack 54% Mack 56% Freedman 19% Rodham 16% GUBERNATORIAL RACE o Gov. Chiles continues to show signs of vulnerability. His re- elect numbers are under 30 percent. o Insurance Commissioner Tom Gallagher and former State Commerce Secretary Jeb Bush lead the field. o Most political analysts believe a Republican will takeover the governorship. Page 2 of 20 This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu REP. CLAY SHAW o The 1 92 redistricting resulted in a more difficult race for Shaw and one of the most competitive in the country. o One Republican has filed so far -- a Perot supporter. o Shaw's district is pro-choice, pro-gun control, has the oldest median age in the country (47-48) making senior citizens issues of great concern, strongly Jewish, with a strong Christian fundamentalist movement in Briar County. ISSUES OF CONCERN TO FL 22ND DISTRICT 1) Rep. Shaw is very concerned about environmental issues: o Preserving the Everglades o Protecting the Florida Bay (believed to be runoff from sugar growers -- issue to avoid) 2) Drug interdiction is a very serious issue for Clay Shaw. He favors allowing the military to get involved. 3) Immigration is getting out of control -- even the very liberal Miami Herald endorsed the use of U.S. military intervention for peacekeeping and rebuilding the country (see attached editorial) 4) Gun control is popular in the 22nd district - especially assault weapons. 5) Flood insurance and erosion zones -- Rep. Shaw opposes the Kennedy-Kerry bill because it will: o Kill the tax base o Prevents development 6) Rep. Shaw is very involved in the welfare reform movement in the House with 2-3 other members. Page 3 of 20 P.02/ 04 TO 94085117 MAR-09-1994 12:33 FROM CONG . SHAW D.C. This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu 1\i\ 1 ~ m J t-1 e.i A v.O 60 1THZ1/h_ Karch 9. l l I\/ ~ <A f' p<!{Z'j ¢'f ~ LI.; TT f'r(Z. 'f 1\-e:;fl(,),y' IN t-f lr•"T I. ~ow~ TIME FOR. THI lWUB£S Milai Jierud. (IOU - RD Dctcube:r 21, 1993 -rMt- e~ 0 .;, ~6 Pfl..d>ie111 By: HerAld StafR EdUion: Fl&U. S6ction: lU>t'?OlUAL Paga: 24A THC:::~e. \ford Count: 994 tm: ~ere will not 'be a peacef\11 political set~lemnt: in. Haiti 1£ the deal deptmda on Jcan•h· r~mK! A.rlstide'• i:c~ Q:> the pi;-a.1de;acy. 'th&~ ha8 been 11&da b~t.lly clear 'by 'Cha ~ry's ?'Uling coalition of llilica:ry ws~ra, O\lvalierist:•, and marci.roua police ?:hug•. Vb.at courae of &Ct:.l.ou t• left, Ehen. £rn t:h4 fo~ •friends Qf Haiti• -· the Vntcaa States, Franc•, Cana4- 1 and VeDQ1.1.8la •• and. th9 he.Uphere•s democrao1ea7 Jus~ one: MiUtuy aee.t.ou by a DUldnation&l £o~c;e tg 0"5t tllt'I ouate-t• and rutor• Mr. Arl.stict. a.a pres1deat. All oQ\e.c opt:ious have n-a.pot"at:ad, on• by one, !be lut Olltion, R.obe~t Malval' s la.at act as pd.JM aiulster, wu to revive ~he Covercor::1 Idllftd agreeaac:nt, B• c.riltd mightily but failed. llov h$ 1.s act!ag pr!.M 111inbter, but neti hh Joviao patie1i0e has been aorely ttied. Oftr the weekend. Mr. Malval blutell Mr. Aria~ide for hnin& ~ ••Vt probl•• ~at, Kr. Malva! .u.gaaned, preelUdes Mr. Arisl:ida's accept1r.g reHouable comproaiaes to etd. the dHa4£ul st&~ quo in Haid. The Coverao~• blan4 &p8118nt, aipd in J\U.y 1 began to dtelntegrata in October. Tb•1!.'• ••n ld.a ~-- 1n Forc·au-l'r1=a -preveueecl Kr. Ariatida'• retum. Sin¢• t:heil, military leader Lt.. Gen. bo\ll Codrq aM. th• Port•&U•Pri'IM:• 11alic• cbl.ef, KLo1'.:L !'r~ub, c<S CheU ilk hava ude 1t fmo1"\ that thay WO?l' e al.law Mr. Artae14e. wom they ou.ted, to regain ehe 'PrH1dam:y. * n!a bunch's collectlva loathing for Kr. Arimd,.t. ia the fbiit; t•nac ot ~1r all1cce' • political. faith. lf 1ancdom sqwaeze th.. bard euou.gb, the thugs m1&ht return ta the neaoda~in& t:ahle. Once ehere, ~. the ~•gima end 1a all1ea would., as before, play fo~ tiJN. Kemt1Jlll, they H'2111 1nc:l1a.ed to cMx:oct a •c.cfta'Cltutioa.al '- coup. maneunrl.fl& co :e.pl•H 11% • Ar!.at::tck Y1'1:L the chief Jwitice of &id'a Sl.IJ)AM Cour~. '?h~ the llilitary'' gas ~ are neuly enpty. its •tAll i.ng is plainly d.ellb•ra-ce. a i'\&88 a1Ma at wcuing down Kr. Aristide'• ~rters. '!hoH supporter• 1n tuu iaclude hard U.uers Vi10 1.mue t:bat: M:J:. Adscidlt a .. t ccmdld.om cbat &it.1 •a U1urpera rill iwver accept •. Hai~i'• \18UrP•r• .i.o bel1eve tb&t they c.u t••i•t & ~eaccful. political 1etcleunt c.n.eerad on !k . .Uis~ide'a reatorat1oa.. 'they fiiun that tlla 11.lL ~uri~ Oou.tlcwil doH uo~ have the l~OllKh ~u tigh~eu tu emb1-rgo "· ol." to cilspauh a U .R. -.1.li tary force ~o ~u!orc• Mr. Aristid.e '• right to the pnaictoney. Ba1t1 11 wreecbadl.y poor •SMI •ic'k. It p:gws poorer, 11.car, by cha clay. The tmbargo &llci die c:oaibwtiou of 'llilltaty nlt, corruption, aiad. lldaanago.ut haw ex.acerbated. a cds1* in vh.1d1 ~c deaths, mal.rmti-1t1on, and various epidellic• alt &re ri•ini. lt is thua cllfficlil.c, Page 4 of 20 94085117 P. 03/ 04 MAR-09-1994 12: 33 FROM COMG . SHAW D. C. TO This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu 03/09/ 94 09:43 li!0 0 2 March 9 , 1994 9:l~aia Pago 2 lln4 ~ear~les&; ~o C1ghte'C •anctioTIS that &lreaty are making life ucbearablt f'or Hatti's poor. Mr. Arhdc.te' s most avid aupportera. !he United Ratil''l'l.S •1toad:y haa rightly 1l80e exc-i>tio:i=i.s for hlllMUlitaria:n aid to Bc.iti. U llr. Arbtida d.oas not regain the presidency, the country will cont:inue ita fi:ee fall toward an ewr 11.0Ye frightful hell. Xe.fagees will coneim.Mt ~o neo t.llat. l1iferno. '!'he u. 8 . Coast Guard will c~ucinu.e to interdict their 'boats a'Jld. ;end them b4ek. MNDwhile 1 Kr. A~istide' s &dveraAYies ~ill E•ian int•rest in negotiat~ng a po1it1etl 8ettlement. Yet r.har.e i• uoill.i.11.g lot1: to 1R:t;c.1t.1.ata vtt:tl 'Chis pack of 11Urderers and l1al'•. Th• only op~iou left to the hemisphere's democracies 1s to v1ew Haiti a5 a special caso. I~'o Anlllogo-u.a to Gxcmada, wheu a U.S.·led h0111apber1c force O\\S~ed tha.t island's Cube de fact;Q occupiers. As "!th Crenade, Ra.iti requires first • 111iUtary int•tv•ntion to rentrti th• CO\mCl"Y to it& rightf\sl, alect•d. geve~nt. 'l.1\en i4' ae.W. .. carefully pl.umeci, anustain.4 peacekeeping .and rebuilding effort. Such 4 step should af ccu.rse bave Mr. Aristida'~ unaabigt.U'.ll1• bl9~~ing. Th• 11Ulti1ate~a1 force would need to be well equipped, under coherent command, and f.aves-ced with the :a.ithor1ty -- a:nd fire-pow•r - - to take any necesliUQ;}' offenaive act1ou a&a1ns~ Haiti's thu.c•.