Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands: Euphrates-Tigris and Rio Grande/Bravo 190 Policy Research Project Report Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs Policy Research Project Report Number 190 Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands: Euphrates-Tigris and Rio Grande/Bravo Project Directed by Aysegül Kibaroğlu Jurgen Schmandt A report by the Policy Research Project on Sustainability of Euphrates-Tigris and Rio Grande/Bravo 2016 The LBJ School of Public Affairs publishes a wide range of public policy issue titles. ISBN: 978-0-89940-818-7 ©2016 by The University of Texas at Austin All rights reserved. No part of this publication or any corresponding electronic text and/or images may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Cover design by Lauren R. Jahnke Maps created by the Houston Advanced Research Center Policy Research Project Participants Graduate Students Deirdre Appel, BA (International Relations and Public Policy), University of Delaware; Master of Global Policy Studies student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Jose Balledos, BS (Physics), University of San Carlos; Master of Global Policy Studies student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin (Fall term only) Christine Bonthius, BA (Physical Geography), University of California, Las Angeles; Ph.D. student (Geography and the Environment), The University of Texas at Austin (Fall term only) Ryan Brown, BA (International Relations and Economics) University of California, Santa Barbara; Master of Global Policy Studies student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Podie Chitan, BA (International Relations), ITESM Mexico City; Master of Public Affairs student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Marcos Duran, BA (Psychology), Southwestern University, Georgetown, Texas; Master of Public Affairs student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Sara Eatman, BS (Mechanical Engineering), University of New Mexico and BA (Humanities), Fort Lewis College; Master student, Environmental and Water Resource Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin (Spring term only) Brian Jackson, BS (Biology and Chemistry), Denison University; Master of Public Affairs student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Anne Kilroy, BA (Psychology and International Studies), North Carolina State University; Master of Public Affairs student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Marimar Miguel, BA (Women’s and Gender Studies), Texas A&M University; Master of Public Affairs student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Haytham Oueidat, BE (Civil and Environmental Engineering), Beirut Arab University; Master of Public Affairs student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Faith Martinez Smith, BA (Environmental Science), Westminster College; Master of Global Policy Studies and Master of Science student, The University of Texas at Austin Melissa Stelter, BA (Sam Houston State University); Master of Global Policy Studies student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin iii Rachel Weinheimer, BA (Classics), The University of Texas at Austin; Master of Global Policy Studies student, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Technical Advisor George Ward, Ph.D., Research Scientist, Center for Research in Water Resources, Cockrell School of Engineering The University of Texas at Austin Project Directors Aysegül Kibaroğlu, Ph.D., Visiting Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin; and Professor, MEF University, Istanbul Jurgen Schmandt, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, LBJ School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin; and Distinguished Fellow, Houston Advanced Research Center iv Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. viii List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... xi Foreword ....................................................................................................................................... xii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... xiii Introduction .................................................................................................................................. xiv PART I. RESERVOIR IMPACT ASSESSMENTS ...................................................................................1 Chapter 1. Methodology ..................................................................................................................2 Chapter 2. Keban Dam .....................................................................................................................5 Chapter 3. Atatürk Dam ...................................................................................................................8 Chapter 4. Tabqa Dam ...................................................................................................................15 Chapter 5. Mosul Dam ...................................................................................................................21 Chapter 6. Middle Rio Grande and Cochiti Dam ..........................................................................29 Chapter 7. Elephant Butte and Caballo Dams ...............................................................................40 Chapter 8. La Boquilla Dam ..........................................................................................................46 Chapter 9. Amistad and Falcón Dams ...........................................................................................57 Chapter 10. Reservoir Impact Assessment Findings .....................................................................73 PART II. WATER ISSUES IN THE EUPHRATES-TIGRIS BASIN .......................................................79 Chapter 11. War on the Euphrates-Tigris: How the Syrian Conflict Started (and Will End) with Water .................................................................................................................................80 Chapter 12. The Energy-Water-Food Nexus and the Syrian Civil War ......................................105 Chapter 13. Shifting Demographics as a Result of Dam Construction in Southeast Turkey ......114 Chapter 14. Alternative Irrigation Management Practices in the Euphrates-Tigris basin of Turkey .................................................................................................................................120 v PART III. WATER ISSUES IN THE RIO GRANDE/BRAVO BASIN ..................................................128 Chapter 15. Toward a Sustainable Management of the Rio Grande/Bravo and Colorado Rivers: Treaties, Institutions, and Minutes .............................................................................129 Chapter 16. The Rio Grande Compact of 1938: Legal and Environmental Challenges of the 21st Century ......................................................................................................................148 Chapter 17. The Energy-Water Nexus in the Paso del Norte Region ..........................................157 Chapter 18. Survey of Paso del Norte Water Stakeholders .........................................................164 PART IV. EUPHRATES-TIGRIS AND PASO DEL NORTE WORKSHOPS .........................................176 Chapter 19. Euphrates-Tigris Workshop .....................................................................................177 Chapter 20. Paso del Norte Workshop .........................................................................................182 CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................................................194 Chapter 21. Defining Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands ..................................195 vi List of Tables Table 8.1. Major Cities in the Rio Conchos Basin .........................................................................47 Table 8.2. Major Reservoirs in the Conchos Basin ........................................................................48 Table 8.3. La Boquilla Reservoir Statistics ....................................................................................49 Table 8.4. Normal Monthly Precipitation in Chihuahua, 1971-2002 ............................................50 Table 8.5. Population in Delicias, Mexico, 1990-2015 ..................................................................50 Table. 9.1. Significant Discharges from Amistad and Falcón Dams .............................................65 Table. 9.2. Water Quality of Rio Grande Segments ......................................................................69 Table. 9.3. Future Water Demand for Region M, 2020-2070 ........................................................70 Table 11.1.