Toledo, 1988 III CONTENTS FOREWORD............................................................................... V OPENING SESSION WELCOMING REMARKS MR. GUZMÁN SOLANA........................................... 1 «THE FUTURE OF SPAIN´S OIL SECTOR» MR. VÍCTOR PÉREZ PITA......................................... 3 SESSION I: OIL MARKET OUTLOOK INTRODUCTORY REMARKS MR. BIJAN MOSSAVAR - RAHMANI ......................... 7 «WORLD OIL MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE 1990S» MR. JOHN PIERCE FERRITER .................................... 13 «OIL MARKETS AND OIL PRICES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS» MR. WILLIAM W. HOGAN ...................................... 25 «PROSPECTS FOR THE WORLD OIL INDUSTRY» MR. ALAN NAISMITH BINDER .................................. 53 SESSION II: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL AND MONEY INTRODUCTORY REMARKS MRS. EIJA MALMIVIRTA .......................................... 67 «CRUDE OIL FORWARD AND FUTURE MARKETS: A COMPARISON OF BRENT AND WTI» MR. ROBERT J. WEINER .......................................... 73 «THE ROLE OF FUTURES IN A GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET» MR. ROBERT RYAN................................................. 83 IV «A PRACTITIONER´S VIEW OF THE OIL AND MONEY MARKETS» MR. ERNST WEIL .................................................... 95 SESSION III: ENERGY IN WESTERN EUROPE IN THE RUN-UP TO 1992 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS MR. JOSÉ SIERRA .................................................... 101 «THE WEST EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS MARKET IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF INTEGRATION AND ELECTRICITY DEMAND: NEW CHALLENGES TO ENERGY POLICY» MR. OYSTEIN NORENG ........................................... 105 «ELECTRICITY IN EUROPE IN THE RUN-UP TO 1992» MR. LARRY RUFF.................................................... 115 «ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND THE 1992 SINGLE EUROPEAN MARKET» MR. MICHAEL J. WRINGLESWORTH......................... 127 «OIL IN WESTERN EUROPE IN THE RUN-UP TO 1992» MR. JUAN SANCHO ROF......................................... 135 CLOSING SESSION CONCLUSIONS MR. BIJAN MOSSAVAR-RAHMANI............................ 165 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ............................................................. 175 V FOREWORD REPSOL, COLECCIÓN «ENSAYO» La colección «Ensayo» de Repsol pretende facilitar los elementos de juicio necesarios para abordar una fértil reflexión sobre los temas de mayor importancia y trascendencia para el sector del petróleo y el gas natural, así como sobre otras materias de interés general. Los ensayos y ponencias de esta colección serán publicados indistin- tamente en inglés y español. En ellos se reflejan los puntos de vista de cada uno de sus autores pero no, necesariamente, los de Repsol, S.A. y su grupo de empresas. REPSOL, «ESSAY» COLLECTION The Repsol «Essay» collection aims to provide background material to facilitate reflection on key subjects of prime importance to the oil and gas industry as well as other subjects of general interest. Essays and papers in this collection will be published in both English and Spanish. They express the opinions of the authors concerned but not necesarily those of Repsol, S.A. and its group of companies. 1 WELCOMING REMARKS GUZMÁN SOLANA Good morning ladies and gentlemen. I would like first to welcome you to the city of Toledo, for the second time the meeting place of the REPSOL-Harvard seminar. I scarcely need say that it is a pleasure for all of us to host this seminar that promises to be as interesting as the previous ones. In the last seminar we talked about the restructur ing that is taking place in the Spanish oil industry as a consequence of our integration in the European Economic Community (EEC). We also announced the creation of REPSOL, which has constituted a fundamental step in the rationalization of the public sector of the Spanish oil industry. Since then we have experienced some important changes. The adap- tation of the oil industry to the EEC requirements has continued, mainly through the deregulation of the market at retail level. As for REPSOL, the company was partially floated in May, with the result that 30 percent of the shares are now in private hands. In general terms, we can describe 1989 as a quiet year for oil mar- kets, with an important decrease in volatility. Nevertheless, we have 2 Opening Session witnessed a moderate increase in oil demand at the world level, with a parallel rise in crude oil prices. If this trend continues in the future, there will be, without doubt, more room for accommodation of pro- duction quotas within OPEC and restoration of discipline within this organization. During 1989 the reintegration process of the oil in- dustry has continued, with both nontraditional and traditional oil companies concentrating on their upstream business and with a very active market for oil reserves. At the same time we have also seen an important increase in United States oil imports, which many perceive, on the basis of past experience, as an early indicator of future higher prices. I am sure this demand/supply aspect of the oil industry will play an important part in our discussions. We should also pay attention to an important new factor of change deriving from the accelerated events now taking place in Eastern Eu- rope. These repercussions will be felt not only in politics and econo- mics but also in the energy and oil sectors at he world level. Apart from the traditional sessions about oil markets, we have also included in this seminar agenda a complete session dedicated to the evolution of the energy sector at the EEC level, an area in which we expect great changes as we approach the 1992 deadline for the inauguration of the European single market. I would like to end by wishing you a pleasant stay in Toledo and ex- pressing the hope that your discussions will contribute to our greater understanding of the oil industry. Thank you for your attendance at this seminar. 3 «THE FUTURE OF SPAIN´S OIL SECTOR» VÍCTOR PÉREZ PITA Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. We are here in Toledo, far from our daily business, to share information and opinions on the oil market and its future. Let me introduce some basic thoughts before you start your discussions. The Spanish Administration thinks that in the future evolution of the oil market, prices will be characterized by greater stability than in past years. We believe this will be the case because the current price is at an equilibrium level between buyers and sellers. Higher prices, in addition to producing imbalances in the most developed economies, would discourage consumption, something that has occurred in the past. On the other hand, substantially lower prices would generate undesirable imbalances in international trade and make it impossible for other energy sources to be substituted for oil —an objective, I should note, of most western economies, including Spain. Another basic point I would like to raise is that oil market deregula- tion, especially the implementation of the deregulated European do- mestic energy market we are now living through, is a development 4 Opening Session of the utmost importance. In my opinion this will not lead to any dra- matic changes in the EEC oil market, as that market already has been functioning at an acceptable level of competition. In Spain, however, given the transition from absolute monopoly we are now under- going, acceptance of the Community rules has already caused far-re- aching changes in the sector, and will continue to do so until the sys- tem complies with all those rules by early 1992. As you know, this process will permit authorized oil operators to compete on the one hand with the refineries of the CAMPSA system in those products remaining in the so-called «national production distribution monopoly», and on the other hand to compete directly with refineries in those already-demonopolized products. This pro- cess of re-adaptation is being undertaken gradually in coordination with the EEC. At this moment we are awaiting one of the last Royal Decrees liberalizing bulk LPG selling directly to the final consumer. The overall liberalization of this retail trade, covering all types of con- sumer fuel oil, heating gas, and bottled or packed LPG, should be completed in the first months of next year. With respect to prices, we intend that there will be a liberalization of the automotive fuel price system throughout the first half of next year. This process will be extended to other products during the re- mainder of the year. In the first quarter of this year we have already liberalized the price of fuel oil, our first experience with the process. It was accomplished with a maximum-price type of system, using a formula to establish a maximum price for each month. We intend to do something similar for the automotive fuel products. Finally, it is our intention to end with a completely free price system that we will institute when we believe the market is in a position to accept i with minimum disruption. After abandoning fixed pricing powers in this field, the next step will be to decide on taxation. After the income tax on oil is removed in accordance with the situation in the other countries of the EEC, there will remain only a special tax, or «excise», and the corresponding va- lue added tax (VAT). «The future of Spain’s Oil Sector» 5 Another point with which we are concerned is tax harmonization with the EEC. The situation here is encouraging. If successful, the process will result in an increase in Spanish taxation of oil products. This increase will enhance its dual role as a highly efficient tax collec- tion tool and a factor in curtailing oil product consumption. Such cur- tailment is especially needed in countries such as Spain which have a high level of dependence on imported oil. On the demand side, the higher fuel oil consumption in thermal po- wer plants forecast for the coming years in the Spanish system will offset in part the large shift to light that has been taking place since 1973. As a result of EEC environmental requirements, we believe there will be an increase in the demand for products with lower pol- lutant content. The reduction in the lead content of gasoline from 0.4 to 0.15 grams per litre that will be enforced after June 1991 will be an important factor in this change.