HEART OF LONDON JUNE AREA PERFORMANCE HEART OF LONDON AREA PERFORMANCE CONTENTS JUNE 2020 EDITION INTRODUCTION 02 Welcome to our area performance report. This monthly summary provides trends in footfall, spending SUMMARY ANALYSIS 03 and much more, in the Heart of London area. Focusing on Leicester Square, Piccadilly Circus, Haymarket, Piccadilly and FOOTFALL TRENDS 04 St James’s, find out exactly how our area has performed FOOTFALL OVERVIEW 05 throughout the month. HOURLY FOOTFALL 06 The report is available exclusively to members, and explores REGIONAL FOOTFALL 07 changes in trends that impact the performance of our area, allowing your business to plan with confidence and make the COVID-19 AND FOOTFALL 08 most of being in the heart of London. YOUR FEEDBACK IS IMPORTANT TO US PROPERTY & INVESTMENT 09 PLEASE CLICK ON THE BUTTON INVESTMENT 10 TO REQUEST NEW DATA OR ANALYSIS PROPERTY PERFORMANCE 11 LEASE AVAILABILITY 12 EVENTS & ACTIVITY 13 IMPACT CALENDAR 14 GLOSSARY 15 See our Glossary for more detail on data sources and definitions. 2 HEART OF LONDON AREA PERFORMANCE SUMMARY ANALYSIS – JUNE 2020 Rainfall (mm) 2020 2019 600K 16 YEAR ON YEAR FOOTFALL -85% Footfall in the current month compared 14 500K to the same month last year 12 400K 10 MONTH ON MONTH FOOTFALL 300K 8 +61% Footfall in the current month compared Footfall to the previous month 6 (mm) Rainfall 200K 4 100K 2 YEAR TO DATE FOOTFALL -55% Footfall in the current year to date K 0 compared to the same period last year M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 1 2 3 4 5 Week 23 Week 24 Week 25 Week 26 Week 27 June trend summary • Like-for-like footfall in the Heart of London area was down 85% in June 2020 compared to the same month last year • Over 2 million visits were registered in the June reporting period, which stretched from Monday, 1st June to Sunday, 5th July • This period covered both the date of the reopening of non-essential retail in the UK on 15th June, as well as the reopening of leisure and hospitality premises on 4th July • Retail reopening had a limited impact on footfall within the leisure- and office-oriented Heart of London area, as footfall was down 84% in the week starting 15th June • Footfall trends started improving at the very end of the month, when pubs, bars, restaurants and some other hospitality venues were allowed to reopen • The so-called “Super Saturday” on the 4th July was the busiest day of the month with ca. 120K visits, while Wednesday, 10th June, was the quietest with just ca. 33K visits • Month on month, footfall in the Heart of London area continues growing, +61% in June, although footfall is still well below last year’s pre-COVID-19 levels 3 FOOTFALL TRENDS HEART OF LONDON JUNE FOOTFALL OVERVIEW Heart of London Business Alliance has 9 footfall counter locations across our footprint (highlighted below). This map depicts the “Year on Year” trend (YoY) and “Year To Date” trend (YTD) for each of the locations. 5 counters are in Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus and 4 in Piccadilly & St James’s Cranbourn St. 2020 2019 2018 16M 14M YTD: -57% 12M New Coventry St. 10M YoY: -87% 8M YTD: -55% 6M 4M YoY: -84% 2M Shaftesbury Ave K Coventry Street Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD: -51% YTD: -62% Fig1. Three year comparative footfall totals for Heart of London area. YoY: -82% YoY: -89% Piccadilly North Irving Street YTD: -59% YTD: -49% YoY: -86% YoY: -82% Piccadilly South YTD: -56% Regent St. St James’s YoY: -84% YTD: -42% YoY: -74% Jermyn Street YTD: -55% YoY: -78% 5 PICCADILLY & ST. JAMES’S JUNE HOURLY PROFILE HOURLY FOOTFALL 35K 30K Distribution & Analysis 25K 20K 15K 10K Piccadilly & St James’s footfall profile ourly footfall volume 5K K • Average hourly footfall fell by 80% year on year in the Total h 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Piccadilly & St James’s area in June. This was equally Weekday Weekend distributed between weekdays (-81%) and weekends (-79%). Source: Heart of London footfall counters, Piccadilly & St James’s only. • Sundays and Mondays were least affected (-77%), while the mid-week period (Wed-Fri) was down 82% year on year. • Daily footfall peaked around mid-day (12:00-1:00 PM) at around 5.6K visits per hour, dropping off at 7:00 PM to 3.3K. LEICESTER SQUARE & PICCADILLY CIRCUS JUNE HOURLY PROFILE • Average hourly footfall on the weekends was 64% lower than 120K on weekdays in the Piccadilly & St James’s area. 100K 80K Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus footfall profile 60K • In the Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus area, average 40K hourly footfall also fell by 85% year on year (weekdays: -86%; ourly footfall volume 20K weekends: -84%). K Total h • Daily footfall peaked at 4:00 PM around 23K visits per hour, 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 but dropping sharply to 15K at 7:00 PM and 10K at 8:00 PM. Weekday Weekend Source: Heart of London counters, Leicester Square and Piccadilly Circus only. • Average hourly footfall on the weekends was 45% lower than on weekdays in the Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus area. 6 HEART OF LONDON AREA: YEAR ON YEAR FOOTFALL COMPARISONS Week Week Week Week Week June footfall grew by 60.9% month on month from the low of 23 24 25 26 27 the national lockdown in May, but was still down 84.7% Heart of -90% -85% -84% -83% -82% compared to the more typical volume of visits a year ago. London UK High -76% -73% -61% -59% -58% Nationally, high street footfall trends were recovering at a Street similar pace (+62.7% month on month), but in year on year West End -89% -88% -75% -74% -75% terms UK high street footfall was down just 64.4% in June. NB: Reporting set includes all Heart of London counting locations (9) Week number This was due to the bigger impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on the Heart of London area and the rest of the West End. LEICESTER SQUARE & PICCADILLY CIRCUS: YEAR ON YEAR At its lowest point, UK high street footfall was down 83%, while the Heart of London area was down as much as 94% in April. Week Week Week Week Week 23 24 25 26 27 WEEKLY TRENDS LSQ -91% -86% -85% -84% -82% Weekly footfall trends continued recovering in June from the UK High • -76% -73% -61% -59% -58% Street lows of the national lockdown, although year on year statistics were still deeply negative. West End -89% -88% -75% -74% -75% NB: Includes only Leicester Square & Piccadilly Circus locations (5) • Heart of London area started the month of June with footfall Week number down 90% year on year (Week 23), but visitation has started growing once again in Week 24 (+13% week on week). PICCADILLY & ST JAMES’S: YEAR ON YEAR • Week on week growth continued throughout the month at a steady double-digit rate. Week Week Week Week Week 23 24 25 26 27 • In Week 25, non-essential retail reopened across the UK and PIC & ST J -82% -84% -81% -79% -79% footfall within the Heart of London area was boosted by 34% UK High week on week (-84% year on year). -76% -73% -61% -59% -58% Street In the final week of the month (Week 27), pubs, restaurants West End -89% -88% -75% -74% -75% • and bars were allowed to reopen across the area, boosting NB: Reporting set includes only Piccadilly & St. James’s locations (4) footfall a further 14% week on week (-82% year on year). Week number 7 HEART OF LONDON AREA FOOTFALL AND UK COVID-19 CASES COVID-19 AND FOOTFALL 3.0M 300K 2.5M 250K The impact of the lockdown on visitor trends 2.0M 200K 1.5M 150K 1.0M 100K 19 UK UK 19 Cases 500K 50K - • COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on Footfall 2020 K K footfall within the Heart of London area. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 COVID February March April May June • As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK 2020 Footfall Confirmed UK COVID-19 cases grew from 94 at the end of February to 60,000 at the end of March, confidence in visiting public areas has declined. Sources: All 9x Heart of London footfall counters, Johns Hopkins University CSSE. • Even before the start of the national lockdown on 23rd March and the worldwide cessation of international travel, footfall has already started falling rapidly. WEEKLY CHANGE IN FOOTFALL AND UK COVID-19 CASES • Weekly footfall started falling in mid-February, declining 60% 600% 34% from 2.6 million (week 8) to 2.2 million (week 10).