Using GIS in Analyzing Population Development A case study on the spatial factors behind population decline in the Province of Fryslân 2000-2008 Alex de Jonge Using GIS in Analyzing Population Development A case study on the spatial factors behind population decline in the Province of Fryslân 2000- 2008 Alex de Jonge, MSc Geographical Information Management & Applications (GIMA) Research conducted at the Province of Fryslân Leeuwarden/Groningen 2010 Supervisors: Dr. Jan Jaap Harts Faculty of Geosciences University of Utrecht Dr. René Monnikhof Beleids- en Geo-Informatie Province of Fryslân Ir. Cor de Wit Beleids- en Geo-Informatie Province of Fryslân Professor: Prof. dr. Tejo Spit Faculty of Geosciences University of Utrecht Preface Preface In the first decade of the twenty-first century population decline has become topic of public debate in the Netherlands. Many demographic prognoses are presented showing a declining population in the peripheral parts of the Netherlands, including the Province of Fryslân. Being a geographer the spatial extent of population decline has my interest. Why do some areas face population decline whilst others are still expanding in population and economic opportunities? In fact, this can be regarded as one of the most fundamental questions in geography. Doing research on this topic by using the possibilities and opportunities learned during the GIMA programme proved to be an interesting task. Subject of this research is the Province of Fryslân, one of the peripheral provinces of the Netherlands. Although the threat of population decline for this province is not as eminent as it is in for example Limburg and Groningen, local population decline is becoming a topic of interest in the provincial policy making. This thesis is executed with close support of these policy makers and researchers of the Province of Fryslân, for which I would like to thank them. First for giving me the opportunity to execute this research and secondly for their support. In particular I would like to thank all the members of the BGI department for their help on data handling, GIS, cartography and their visions on population decline. From the GIMA programme my thank goes to Jan Jaap Harts, for good to-the-point feedback and overall guidance during this research. The intention of this research is to generate a conceptual framework and methodology to research local population development in the Province of Fryslân. To achieve this, special focus is put on applying GIS methods and techniques. It has become clear that there is no conceptual framework complete enough to fully explain population development. This research is written as a search to gain better understanding in the concept of population development and it should be interpreted as such. It might be even concluded that this research raises even more questions than it answers. Therefore I hope it leads to an inspiring read! 1 Using GIS in Analyzing Population Development 2 Abstract Abstract Population development can be regarded as the result of natural increase and migration, both caused by a manifold of explanatory factors. This research focuses on population development in the province of Fryslân over the years 2000-2008 and the use of GIS in analyzing this subject. Two applications of GIS are described: visualization of spatial patterns and spatial analysis. Examples of spatial analysis are distances, area calculations, overlay functions, neighborhood functions and travel time. The explanatory factors related to population development are divided into three themes: population characteristics, planning & infrastructure and amenities & economy. For a number of factors the correlation with population development can be demonstrated. These explanatory factors include the number of inhabitants, age composition, average household size, planning hierarchy, railway stations, housing stock and amenities. The correlations between straight line distances, travel time by car, employment and population development can not be proven. Of all explanatory factors the development of the housing stock can be regarded as the most strongly correlated explanatory factor. Also the factors related to population characteristics have a relative strong correlation: population size, age composition and average household size. Keywords : GIS, Geo, spatial analysis, population development, population decline, Fryslân. 3 Using GIS in Analyzing Population Development 4 Table of Contents Table of contents Chapter Page Preface 1 Abstract 3 Table of contents 5 List of figures, tables, maps and boxes 9 List of abbreviations and terminology 13 1. Introduction 15 1.1. Defining population development 16 1.2. Population decline on various scales 17 1.3. Challenges of population decline on a local level 17 1.4. Problem description 18 1.5 Thesis outline 18 2. Population development in Fryslân 19 2.1. The province of Fryslân 19 2.1.1. Local levels in Fryslân 19 2.2. Applying the population balance on Fryslân 20 2.3. Natural increase 21 2.3.1. Births 22 2.3.2. Deaths 23 2.3.3. Sum of natural population increase 24 2.4. Migration 25 2.4.1. In migration 25 2.4.2. Out migration 26 2.4.3. Net migration 27 2.5. Population balance 27 2.5.1. Population development 28 2.5.2. Population development in time 28 3. Spatial factors 31 3.1. Demographic changes 31 3.2. Explanatory factors introduced 31 3.3. Conceptual model 32 3.4. Push- and pull factors 33 3.5. Themes related to population development 33 3.5.1. Population characteristics 33 3.5.2. Planning 34 3.5.3. Infrastructure 35 3.5.4. Housing 35 3.5.5. Amenities 36 3.5.6. Economy 36 5 Using GIS in Analyzing Population Development 4. Research objectives 37 4.1. Research goals 37 4.2. Research questions 37 4.3. Scope 37 4.3.1. Limiting population development 37 4.3.2. Empirical data 38 4.3.3. Scale 38 4.3.4. Determining relations 38 4.3.5. Spatial statistics 38 5. Methodology 39 5.1. Answering the research questions 39 5.1.1. GIS techniques 39 5.1.2. Determination of factors 39 5.2. Research methodology 39 5.3. Software 41 5.3.1. GIS software 42 5.3.2. Statistical software 42 5.4. Data 42 5.4.1. Data needs 42 5.4.2. Data acquisition 42 5.5. Statistical analysis 42 5.5.1. Statistical interpretation 44 6. GIS techniques 45 6.1. Spatial representations 45 6.2. GIS manipulation and analysis 46 6.2.1. Measurement, retrieval and classification functions 46 6.2.2. Overlay functions 46 6.2.3. Neighbourhood functions 48 6.2.4. Connectivity functions 48 6.3. Visualisation 49 6.4. Additional value of GIS 49 6.5 Application of GIS in this research 51 7. Population characteristics 53 7.1. Population characteristics of the Frisian cores 53 7.1.1. Population size 53 7.1.2. Age composition 54 7.1.3. Average household size 57 7.2. Hypotheses 59 7.3. Methodology 59 7.3.1. Population size 59 7.3.2. Age composition 60 7.3.3. Average household size 60 7.4. Population characteristics versus population development 60 7.4.1. Population size 60 7.4.2. Age composition 61 7.4.3. Household size 63 7.5. Summary 64 6 Table of Contents 8. Planning & infrastructure 65 8.1. Planning & infrastructure in Fryslân 65 8.1.1. Planning system 65 8.1.2. Centrality 67 8.1.3. Environmental planning restrictions 68 8.1.4. Infrastructure 70 8.1.2. Housing 71 8.2. Hypotheses 72 8.3. Methodology 72 8.3.1. Planning hierarchy 73 8.3.2. Centrality 73 8.3.3. Environmental planning restrictions 73 8.3.4. Infrastructure 73 8.3.5. Housing 74 8.4. GIS results 74 8.4.1. Centrality 74 8.4.2. Environmental planning restrictions 75 8.4.3. Infrastructure 75 8.5. Planning and infrastructure related to population development 79 8.5.1. Planning hierarchy 80 8.5.2. Centrality 82 8.5.3. Planning restrictions 83 8.5.4. Infrastructure 84 8.5.5. Housing 86 8.6. Summary 86 9. Amenities & economy 89 9.1. Amenities & economy in Fryslân 89 9.1.1. Education 90 9.1.2. Health care 92 9.1.3. Social-cultural 94 9.1.4. Retail 95 9.1.5. Business services 96 9.1.6. Public transport 97 9.1.7. Welfare 98 9.1.8. Complete cores 98 9.1.9. Employment 100 9.2. Hypotheses 101 9.3. Methodology 101 9.3.1. Individual amenities and complete cores 101 9.3.2. Average travel times 102 9.3.3. Employment 102 9.4. GIS results 102 9.4.1. Average travel times 103 9.4.2. Employment 104 9.5. Amenities & economy and population development 104 9.5.1. Individual amenities 105 9.5.2. Complete cores 107 9.5.3. Average travel time by car 108 9.5.4. Employment 108 7 Using GIS in Analyzing Population Development 9.6. Summary 109 10. Regression analysis 111 10.1. Linear regression 111 10.2. Outcomes 111 10.3. Interpretation 112 11. Conclusions 115 11.1. GIS techniques 115 11.1.1. Visualization 115 11.1.2. Spatial analysis 115 11.2. Determination of factors 117 11.2.1. Population characteristics 117 11.2.2. Planning & infrastructure 118 11.2.3. Amenities & economy 119 11.2.4. Regression 119 11.3. Main question 119 12. Discussion 121 12.1. Limitations of the research 121 12.1.1. Correlations versus causality 121 12.1.2. Spatial distribution 121 12.1.3. Absolute versus relative growth 121 12.1.4. Provincial borders 122 12.1.5. Statistical analysis 122 12.2. Future research 122 12.2.1.
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