2014 Northwest Territories Hazard Identification Risk Assessment Vanguard EMC Inc. 1/1/2014 Acknowledgements This study was made possible by a contribution of funding through the Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada Climate Change Adaptation Program, Government of the Northwest Territories Partnership. Statement of Limitations The information contained in this document is the application of Vanguard EMC Inc.’s professional expertise and where applicable professional opinion, subject to the accuracy and content of available information and the scope of work. The user of this information accepts full responsibility for any errors or omissions contained therein. Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 3 2 OVERVIEW OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES ........................................................................... 8 2.1 SETTING ......................................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 POPULATION ................................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 ECONOMY ....................................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 EMERGING ISSUES ........................................................................................................................... 9 2.5 CLIMATE CHANGE .......................................................................................................................... 10 3 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 12 3.1 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION RISK ASSESSMENT ................................................................................... 12 3.2 SCOPE .......................................................................................................................................... 12 3.3 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................. 12 3.3.1 Literature Review ................................................................................................................... 14 3.3.2 Step #1 - Hazard Identification ............................................................................................. 15 3.3.3 Step #2 - Risk Assessment ................................................................................................... 15 3.3.4 Step #3 - Risk Analysis ......................................................................................................... 16 3.3.5 Step #4 - Monitor and Review ............................................................................................... 17 4 HAZARDS IDENTIFIED ..................................................................................................................... 19 4.1 NATURAL HAZARDS ....................................................................................................................... 19 4.2 HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS ............................................................................................................ 19 5 HAZARD NARRATIVES .................................................................................................................... 20 5.1 GUIDING PRINCIPLES ..................................................................................................................... 20 5.2 VERY HIGH HAZARD ...................................................................................................................... 21 5.2.1 Fire/Explosion ........................................................................................................................ 21 5.2.2 Flood ....................................................................................................................................... 27 5.3 HIGH HAZARD ............................................................................................................................... 32 5.3.1 Weather – Winter Storm ........................................................................................................ 32 5.3.2 Transportation Accidents ..................................................................................................... 35 5.3.3 Critical Infrastructure Failure – Energy Crisis .................................................................... 39 5.3.4 Critical Infrastructure Failure - Other .................................................................................. 42 5.3.5 Critical Infrastructure Failure - Water Contamination ....................................................... 46 5.3.6 Weather – Other Extreme ...................................................................................................... 49 5.4 MODERATE HAZARD ...................................................................................................................... 52 5.4.1 Industrial Emergency ............................................................................................................ 52 5.4.2 Weather – Wind Storm .......................................................................................................... 55 5.4.3 Human Disease ...................................................................................................................... 58 5.4.4 Ice Hazard ............................................................................................................................... 60 5.4.5 Snow Load Hazard ................................................................................................................ 62 5.4.6 Earth Movement – Permafrost Degradation ....................................................................... 64 5.4.7 Civil Unrest ............................................................................................................................. 67 5.4.8 Earth Movement - Other ........................................................................................................ 69 5.5 LOW HAZARD ................................................................................................................................ 73 5.5.1 Earth Movement – Earthquake/Tsunami ............................................................................. 73 5.5.2 War and International Incident ............................................................................................. 77 NWT HIRA 2014 Page | 1 5.5.3 Food and Agricultural Emergency ....................................................................................... 79 5.5.4 Falling Debris ......................................................................................................................... 81 6 VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................ 83 6.1 RESILIENCE ................................................................................................................................... 83 6.2 VULNERABILITY FACTORS .............................................................................................................. 84 6.2.1 Social Vulnerability ............................................................................................................... 85 6.2.2 Language Groups .................................................................................................................... 86 6.2.3 Age Groups ............................................................................................................................ 86 6.2.4 Disability ................................................................................................................................. 86 6.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES ...................................................................................................................... 87 6.4 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE ........................................................................................................... 87 6.4.1 Energy and Utilities ............................................................................................................... 89 6.4.2 Communications and Information Technology .................................................................. 92 6.4.3 Finance ................................................................................................................................... 93 6.4.4 Health Care ............................................................................................................................. 94 6.4.5 Food ........................................................................................................................................ 95 6.4.6 Water ....................................................................................................................................... 96 6.4.7 Transportation ....................................................................................................................... 97 6.4.8 Safety .................................................................................................................................... 104 6.4.9 Government.......................................................................................................................... 104 6.4.10 Industry ................................................................................................................................