MetroWest Phase 1 MetroWest Phase 1- EAST Appraisal Prepared for West of England July 2014 Burderop Park Swindon SN4 0QD +44 (0)1793 812479 +44 (0)1793 812089 Contents Section Page 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1‐1 1.1 What is MetroWest? .............................................................................................................. 1‐1 1.2 Business case requirements .................................................................................................. 1‐4 1.3 EAST assessment .................................................................................................................... 1‐4 1.4 Purpose and structure of this report ..................................................................................... 1‐5 2. The context and need for MetroWest Phase 1 ............................................................................ 2‐1 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 2‐1 2.2 Understanding the current transport situation ..................................................................... 2‐1 2.2.1 Current transport and other policies ........................................................................ 2‐1 2.2.2 Current travel demand ............................................................................................. 2‐1 2.2.3 Current transport opportunities and constraints ..................................................... 2‐2 2.3 Understanding the future situation ....................................................................................... 2‐3 2.3.1 Future land uses and policies ................................................................................... 2‐3 2.3.2 Changes to the West of England transport system .................................................. 2‐3 2.3.3 Future travel demands.............................................................................................. 2‐4 2.4 The need for transport intervention ...................................................................................... 2‐4 2.4.1 Underlying causes ..................................................................................................... 2‐4 2.5 LTP and LEP objectives ........................................................................................................... 2‐4 2.6 Options considered for major schemes ................................................................................. 2‐5 3. MetroWest Phase 1 – WebTAG Appraisal Stage 1 – Steps 1 to 5 ................................................. 3‐1 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 3‐1 3.2 Understanding the current rail situation ............................................................................... 3‐1 3.2.1 Current policy framework ......................................................................................... 3‐1 3.2.2 Current rail demand and levels of service ................................................................ 3‐1 3.2.3 Current rail opportunities and constraints ............................................................... 3‐3 3.3 Understanding the future rail situation ................................................................................. 3‐3 3.3.1 Future changes to the rail network and operation................................................... 3‐3 3.3.2 MetroWest Phase 2 .................................................................................................. 3‐4 3.3.3 Future rail demand ................................................................................................... 3‐4 3.4 The need for rail intervention ................................................................................................ 3‐6 3.5 Scheme‐specific objectives and geographical area of impact ............................................... 3‐7 3.6 MetroWest Phase 1 option generation and descriptions ...................................................... 3‐7 4. MetroWest Phase 1 – WebTAG Appraisal Stage 1 – Steps 6 ‐ EAST .............................................. 4‐1 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.2 Strategic Case ......................................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.2.1 Scale of Impact .......................................................................................................... 4‐1 4.2.2 Fit with wider transport and government objectives ............................................... 4‐2 4.2.3 Fit with other objectives ........................................................................................... 4‐3 4.2.4 Key uncertainties ...................................................................................................... 4‐3 4.2.5 Degree of consensus over outcomes ........................................................................ 4‐5 4.2.6 Summary of strategic case ........................................................................................ 4‐5 4.3 Economic Case ....................................................................................................................... 4‐5 4.3.1 Economic growth ...................................................................................................... 4‐5 4.3.2 Carbon emissions ...................................................................................................... 4‐9 METROWEST PHASE 1 EAST APPRAISAL III CONTENTS, CONTINUED Section Page 4.3.3 Socio‐distributional and regional impacts ................................................................. 4‐9 4.3.4 Local environment ................................................................................................... 4‐20 4.3.5 Wellbeing ................................................................................................................ 4‐22 4.3.6 Value for money ...................................................................................................... 4‐22 4.3.7 Summary of economic case..................................................................................... 4‐23 4.4 Managerial case.................................................................................................................... 4‐23 4.4.1 Implementation timetable ...................................................................................... 4‐23 4.4.2 Public acceptability .................................................................................................. 4‐23 4.4.3 Practical feasibility ................................................................................................... 4‐25 4.4.4 Quality of supporting evidence ............................................................................... 4‐26 4.4.5 Key risks ................................................................................................................... 4‐27 4.4.6 Summary of management case ............................................................................... 4‐27 4.5 Financial Case ....................................................................................................................... 4‐27 4.5.1 Affordability ............................................................................................................. 4‐27 4.5.2 Capital Cost (£m) ..................................................................................................... 4‐28 4.5.3 Revenue Costs (£m) ................................................................................................. 4‐28 4.5.4 Cost Profile .............................................................................................................. 4‐30 4.5.5 Overall cost risk and other costs ............................................................................. 4‐30 4.5.6 Summary of financial case ....................................................................................... 4‐30 4.6 Commercial Case .................................................................................................................. 4‐31 4.6.1 Flexibility of option .................................................................................................. 4‐31 4.6.2 Funding sources ....................................................................................................... 4‐31 4.6.3 Income generation .................................................................................................. 4‐31 4.6.4 Summary of commercial case ................................................................................. 4‐31 4.7 Summary and EAST forms .................................................................................................... 4‐31 Appendixes A LTB prioritisation B EAST Proformas Tables 2.1 Mode split data from CCAG bid 2.2 ORR Station usage information 3.1 ORR Historic patronage growth in West of England area 3.2 Network Rail LTPP Regional Urban Markets Study – Bristol area forecast growth 3.3 Options descriptions 4.1 Scale of impact 4.2 Fit against wider transport and government objectives 4.3 Fit against other objectives 4.4 Key uncertainties 4.5 Degree of consensus over outcomes 4.6 Economic growth 4.7