Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses 12-10-2019 Explaining the Sectarian Violence in the Middle East: a Conflict Analysis of the Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Iran Ahmed Elsayed Eltally Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Part of the Islamic Studies Commons, Near and Middle Eastern Studies Commons, and the Peace and Conflict Studies Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Eltally, Ahmed Elsayed, "Explaining the Sectarian Violence in the Middle East: a Conflict Analysis of the Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Iran" (2019). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 5444. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.7317 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. Explaining the Sectarian Violence in the Middle East: A Conflict Analysis of the Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Iran by Ahmed Elsayed Eltally A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Conflict Resolution Thesis Committee: Harry Anastasiou, Chair Vandy Kanyako Robert Asaadi Portland State University 2019 © 2019 Ahmed Elsayed Eltally Abstract The Middle East has been rife with conflicts, extremism, and sectarianism in recent decades. Many explanations attribute the rise of sectarianism in the Middle East to the historical divide between Sunni and Shia Muslims, while others attribute it to power or identity concerns. This thesis explores the factors that contributed to the rise of contemporary sectarianism in the Middle East through the case study of Saudi-Iranian rivalry. The literature on the history of the Middle East, Islam, theories of international relations, and conflict studies underlines how Saudi Arabia and Iran use sectarianism to further their interests. This research examines how key elements, including the rule of government, ideology, and economic interests, contribute to the escalation of the sectarianism. A Conflict Analysis Framework analyzes the conflict from five different dimensions: strategic, political, socioeconomic, psychological, and cultural. This framework and qualitative methods argue that the milestone events, such as the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Arab Spring uprisings, and the Iran Nuclear Deal, affect the geopolitics of the region. This study offers a multi-dimensional analysis, so policymakers can gain a better understanding of the geopolitics of the Middle East to work towards its stability. i Dedication To those who dedicate their lives to a better and more peaceful world & To the Egyptian people, to whom I belong and for whom I work ii Acknowledgments First of all, all praises to Allah for His blessings and the strength to complete this thesis. I would like to thank my thesis committee for constructive feedbacks and valuable guidance throughout the process. I had the privilege to work with diverse committee members from different backgrounds and areas of experience, which enriched my research and provided me with valuable resources. Dr. Harry Anastasiou, who recognized the importance of the research topic from my first class at the graduate school, and gave full backing to me. Dr. Vandy Kanyako who provided brilliant feedback during the paper’s drafts. Dr. Robert Asaadi who was insightful and knowledgeable on my research topic. This thesis would not have been accomplished without the much-appreciated guidance of the Conflict Resolution Graduate Program’s staff, students, and professors. Special thank you to the program coordinator, Aislyn Matias, and the program director, Professor Patricia Schechter, for encouraging and supporting me during my study at Portland State University. Also, I would like to thank the Middle East Studies Center at Portland State University, through which I had the opportunity to meet with many scholars who enriched my research, such as Professor Kambiz GhaneaBassiri, Dr. Harout Akdedian, and Professor Melani Cammett. My debt of gratitude extends to my supportive family and friends, who have helped me stay motivated throughout this process. Being an international student, studying, and working fulltime is not an easy thing, but my family and friends’ love and support always encouraged me and kept me focused. iii Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………………….............i Dedication…………………………………………………………………………………ii Acknowledgments………………………………………………………….…… ………iii List of Figures……………………………………………………………………............ vi List of Acronyms and Abbreviations …………………………………………….............vii Note on Transliteration………………………………………………..............................viii Glossary ...………………………………………………………………………………..iv Disclaimer………………………………………………………………………………. .iv Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Background: Deciding on the topic………………………………………………..1 1.2 The necessity of the study…..……………………………………………………. 3 1.3 Scope and organization of the thesis ……………………………………………...5 1.4 Problem statement …………………………..…………………………………….6 1.5 Research questions..…………………………….…………………………............6 Chapter 2: Methodology 2.1 Research method………………..…………………………………………………7 2.2 Theoretical framework…………………………………………..…………...........8 2.3 Limitations of research…………………………………………………..……….10 Chapter 3: Literature Review 3.1 Historical background on Sunni and Shia Islam…………………..……..……….12 3.2 Saudi Arabia and Iran ………..…………………………………….…………….16 3.2.1 The Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran)…………………..………..……..…...........17 3.2.2 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia………………………………….…………………...19 3.2.3 The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran……………………..………. .21 3.3 Supporting theories…………..……………………………………..……........... .24 3.3.1 The Harvard Approach of Negotiations ………………………….................... .24 3.3.2 The Human Needs Theory ………………..…………………………………. .25 3.3.3 The Conflict Transformation Approach ………………………………………..25 3.3.4 Negative and Positive Peace …………………………………………………. .26 3.3.5 Bar-Tal’s Theory of Intractable Conflict ………………………..……………..26 3.3.6 Deterrence Theory ………………….………………………………………….28 3.3.7 Enemies and Allies …………………………………………………………….28 3.3.8 Galtung’s typology of violence………………………………………………...29 3.4 Religion and violence ……………………………..……………………………..30 3.5 The Battle of Karbala and the conflict supporting narratives …………………....31 Chapter 4: Analysis 4.1 Milestone events that have served to escalate and perpetuate sectarian conflicts………………………………………………………....33 4.1.1 The Iranian Revolution ……………..………………………………………….34 4.1.2 Iraq Invasion…………………………………………………………………....38 4.1.3 The post-Arab uprisings ………………….…………………………….............42 4.1.3.1The response to the Arab uprisings …………………………………………...45 iv 4.1.4 Iran Nuclear Deal …………………………………………………………….. 46 4.2 Religion as a political tool………………………………………………………..48 4.3 Conflict Analysis Framework …………………………………………….... …..49 4.3.1The strategic dimension………………………………………………………...50 4.3.2 The political dimension ………………………………………………………. 53 4.3.3 The socioeconomic dimension ………………………………………….......... 55 4.3.4 The psychological dimension ………………………………………………….56 4.3.5 Cultural dimension ……………………………..……………………….......... 58 4.4 Stakeholder analysis……………………………..……………………………… 60 4.4.1 Lebanon ………………………………………………………………………. 63 4.4.2 Hezbollah ………………………………………………………………............64 4.4.3 Syria…………………………………………………………………………... .66 4.4.4 Iraq …………………………………………………………………………… .67 4.4.5 Yemen ………………………………………………………………………... .68 4.4.6 Israel …………………………………………………………………………. .69 4.4.7 United States …………………………………………………………………. .71 4.4.8 Russia ………………………………………………………………………… .72 4.4.9 Egypt …………………………………………………………………………...73 4.4.10 Turkey …………………………………………………………………......... .73 4.4.11 Gulf states of the Gulf Cooperation Council………………………………….75 4.4.11.1 The United Arab Emirates ………………………………………………… 75 4.4.11.2 Bahrain …………………………………………………………………..... 76 4.4.11.3 Qatar ………………………………………………………………………..76 4.4.11.4 Sultanate of Oman ………………………………………………………… 77 4.4.11.5 Kuwait ………………………………………………………………...........78 4.5 Conflict mapping …………………………………………………………...........79 Chapter 5: Conclusion and recommendations…………………………………………....80 Figures……………………………………………………………………........................84 References……………………………………………………………..…………............92 v List of Figures Figure 1 (Map of the Greater Middle East)……………………………………………....84 Figure 2 (Map of Saudi Arabia)…………………………………………………………..85 Figure 3 (Map of Iran)…………………………………………………………………....86 Figure 4 (Power Structure of Iran)……………………………………………………….87 Figure 5 (Royal Family Tree in Saudi Arabia)…………………………………………...88 Figure 6 (Sectarian Balance of Power in the Middle East)………………………………89 Figure 7 (Shia Crescent)……………………………………. …………………………...90 Figure 8 (Stakeholders Map)…………………………………………………..................91 vi List of Acronyms and Abbreviations GCC Gulf Cooperation Council CPA Coalition Provisional Authority GWOT Global War on Terror IIG Iraqi Interim Government IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Sham JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia MENA Middle East and North Africa NCTC National Counterterrorism Center STL Special Tribunal for Lebanon UAE United Arab Emirates UNSC United Nations Security Council WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction vii Note on Transliteration In transcribing Arabic and Persian