The Next Cold War: Are the United States and China undergoing a power transition through proxy wars? by Mohamed Elgayar Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts at Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia December 2018 © Copyright by Mohamed Elgayar, 2018 Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vi Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2: Review of Literature .................................................................................................. 10 The Rise to Power ................................................................................................................................. 11 Destined for War? ................................................................................................................................ 13 Intervention Theory ............................................................................................................................. 16 Opportunistic Intervention .................................................................................................................. 20 Strategic Balancing Intervention......................................................................................................... 24 Chapter 3: Theoretical Framework on Sino-American Transition ........................................... 29 Can the United States and China avoid the Thucydides Trap? ....................................................... 29 War, what is it good for? ...................................................................................................................... 34 Is Power Transition Dead? .................................................................................................................. 39 Following America’s Lead ................................................................................................................... 42 Chapter 4: Research Design and Methodology .......................................................................... 44 Hypothesis Testing ................................................................................................................................ 44 Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 46 ii Dataset ................................................................................................................................................... 47 Dependent Variables ............................................................................................................................ 49 Independent Variables ......................................................................................................................... 51 Sino-American Rivalry ...................................................................................................................................... 51 Time of intervention ........................................................................................................................................... 59 Region of conflict ............................................................................................................................................... 61 Discovery of Petroleum...................................................................................................................................... 62 Control Variables ............................................................................................................................................... 63 Chapter 5: Empirical Findings and Results ............................................................................... 64 Observation of Raw Data ..................................................................................................................... 64 Empirical Findings over time .............................................................................................................. 66 Empirical findings by region ............................................................................................................... 69 Empirical Findings on Potential Balancing Interventions ................................................................ 71 Hypothesis Testing ................................................................................................................................ 72 Chapter 6: Addressing Sino-American Interventions ................................................................ 74 Rivalry Implications ............................................................................................................................. 76 Chinese Rivalry Intervention: Balancing or Opportunism? ............................................................ 77 The Iraqi Insurgency (2003-2013) ..................................................................................................................... 81 Fatah-Hamas Conflict ........................................................................................................................................ 83 Syrian Civil War ................................................................................................................................................ 86 Chinese Rivalry Interventions ............................................................................................................. 90 On Course to Collide? .......................................................................................................................... 93 Chapter 7: Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 96 iii Restrictions and Limitations ................................................................................................................ 98 Appendix 1 Sino-American Interventions by year .................................................................... 100 Appendix 2 Conflicts and Intervention Side ............................................................................. 102 Works Cited ................................................................................................................................ 104 iv List of Tables Table 1 Height of Rivalry by Time Period ................................................................................... 59 Table 2 Number of Interventions by Country ............................................................................... 66 Table 3 List of Conflict Interventions by Year ............................................................................. 67 Table 4 Potential Balancing Interventions within Each Time Period ........................................... 72 Table 5 Balancing V. Opportunistic Interventions ....................................................................... 79 v List of Figures Figure 1 Number of interventions and rivalry interventions by year ............................................ 65 Figure 2 Number of Interventions by Year ................................................................................... 65 Figure 3 Number of Interventions by Country ............................................................................. 69 Figure 4 Number of Interventions in Each Region ....................................................................... 70 Figure 5 Geopolitical Map of Mediterranean ............................................................................... 88 vi Abstract The thesis reviews the implications of Sino-American conflicts in the context of contemporary international relations. Since the end of the Cold War, the threat of direct conflict between major powers has declined due to the logic of mutually assured destruction, leaving a gap in the study of power transition theories: How can transitions be violent if there is no direct conflict? This thesis proposes that a new mechanism of conflict has replaced the traditional means of violent transition: proxy wars. The question this thesis seeks to answer is: Has the heightened Sino-American rivalry increased the number of conflicts Beijing has intervened in? If so, which factors best explain the logic behind Chinese intervention? Balancing intervention or opportunism? This thesis implements a longitudinal design to explore the changes in interventions by both actors over time. The cases that involved both actors intervening in opposition (Iraq, Syria, and Fatah-Hamas) were then presented in case studies to determine whether the intervention was best explained by strategic balancing or opportunism. While the thesis ultimately determines that it is too early to define a direct relationship between the height of rivalry and intervention, it does offer insight into the potential trajectory and what a power transition through proxy wars might look like. This research