Following America? : Dutch geographical car diffusion, 1900 to 1980 Citation for published version (APA): Wolf, H. M. (2010). Following America? : Dutch geographical car diffusion, 1900 to 1980. Technische Universiteit Eindhoven. https://doi.org/10.6100/IR658844 DOI: 10.6100/IR658844 Document status and date: Published: 01/01/2010 Document Version: Publisher’s PDF, also known as Version of Record (includes final page, issue and volume numbers) Please check the document version of this publication: • A submitted manuscript is the version of the article upon submission and before peer-review. There can be important differences between the submitted version and the official published version of record. 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If the publication is distributed under the terms of Article 25fa of the Dutch Copyright Act, indicated by the “Taverne” license above, please follow below link for the End User Agreement: www.tue.nl/taverne Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us at: [email protected] providing details and we will investigate your claim. Download date: 09. Oct. 2021 Following America? Dutch geographical car diffusion, 1900 to 1980 PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof.dr.ir. C.J. van Duijn, voor een commissie aangewezen door het College voor Promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op donderdag 4 maart 2010 om 16.00 uur door Hanna Manuela Wolf geboren te Haifa, Israël Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor: prof.dr. B. Verspagen Copromotor: dr.ing. G.P.A. Mom Der erscheint mir als der Grösste, der zu keiner Fahne schwört, und, weil er vom Teil sich löste, nun der ganzen Welt gehört. (Rainer Maria Rilke) Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 The background .............................................................................................. 2 1.2 The US and the Netherlands in social car history ........................................... 6 1.2.1 The Netherlands as a motorization latecomer ......................................... 6 1.2.2 Lag and abnormality in Dutch geographical car diffusion ...................... 8 1.3 Methods and structure of this book ............................................................... 14 2 Is the Netherlands a motorization latecomer? An international comparison drawn from the analysis of three transport modes .................................................................. 16 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 16 2.2 On methodology ........................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 The research design ............................................................................... 18 2.2.2 The choice of the fitted equation ........................................................... 20 2.2.3 The longitudinal characteristics and the fitting procedure .................... 25 2.2.4 The cluster analysis ............................................................................... 31 2.3 Late, fast and left-tailed. What the Netherlands distinguishes from the US in the long-run .............................................................................................................. 33 2.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 38 3 Is there a unique Dutch path of geographical car diffusion? A long-run analysis of geographical dynamics on the level of municipalities................................................. 39 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 39 3.2 The American geographical diffusion path, from 1900 to 1969–A synopsis drawn from G. K. Jarvis ........................................................................................... 41 3.3 The Dutch geographical diffusion path, from 1900 to 1980 ......................... 47 3.3.1 The convergence of regional heterogeneity of adoption levels ............. 48 3.3.2 The degree of geographical concentration............................................. 53 3.3.3 The diffusion cores and lagging regions................................................ 58 3.3.3.1 Period one: Early diffusion ............................................................ 62 3.3.3.2 Period two: The first wave of diffusion and convergence ............. 69 3.3.3.3 Period three: Retardation ................................................................ 74 3.3.3.4 Period four: The second wave of diffusion and convergence ........ 77 3.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 81 4 How can one interpret the Dutch geographical diffusion path? On theory and historical background .................................................................................................. 83 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 83 4.2 Overview of three theoretical perspectives ................................................... 83 4.2.1 The contagious diffusion model ............................................................ 84 4.2.2 Microeconomic demand theory ............................................................. 87 4.2.3 Social diffusion and functional fields .................................................... 93 4.3 Embedding the theory in the Dutch historical context.................................. 95 4.3.1 The US, Jarvis' regression results and the issue of isolation ................. 96 4.3.2 The Netherlands ................................................................................... 102 4.3.2.1 The historical background ............................................................ 102 4.3.2.2 "Distance to markets" and "necessity" in the Netherlands ........... 108 4.3.2.3 Contagious diffusion .................................................................... 114 4.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 114 5 Is there a common logic in the geographical car diffusion of the US and the Netherlands? A spatial regression analysis for the Netherlands ................................ 116 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 116 5.2 On methodology ......................................................................................... 117 5.2.1 The measurement choices .................................................................... 117 5.2.2 Choices for spatial multiple regression models ................................... 126 5.2.3 Further technical choices ..................................................................... 129 5.3 The diffusion logic in the Netherlands in view of the American example . 131 5.3.1 The speed of adjustment to the conditions .......................................... 131 5.3.2 The first wave of diffusion and convergence ...................................... 133 5.3.3 The second wave of diffusion and convergence .................................. 142 5.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 148 6 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 151 6.1 Summary of the findings of this book ........................................................ 151 6.2 The Netherlands: Car diffusion in a small and dense catching-up country 152 6.3 Limitations of this study ............................................................................. 154 7 Appendix ............................................................................................................ 156 7.1 Appendix I Some background information on the Netherlands ................. 156 7.2 Appendix II A quantitative overview of the American geographical car diffusion dynamics as presented by Jarvis ............................................................. 158 7.3 Appendix III Rail-bound transport in the Netherlands ............................... 163 List of sources ............................................................................................................ 166 Chapters 1 and 2 ...................................................................................................