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Libya Weekly Operational Preview June 20, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya © 2021 GardaWorld Confidential & Proprietary GardaWorld Confidential & Proprietary Confidential GardaWorld 1 202 1 © Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 5 Migrant Developments .......................................................................................................................... 5 Oil and Gas Developments................................................................................................................... 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 6 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 6 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Security/Military Developments ............................................................................................................ 7 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 8 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 8 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 9 Fezzan Region ................................................................................................................................... 10 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 11 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 12 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 12 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 12 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya Operational report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. GardaWorld Confidential & Proprietary Confidential GardaWorld 1 202 2 © Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ The political process and domestic political issues have once again stalled, with the budget being delayed to a sitting on Jun 29 and no further discussion on the issue of the constitutional basis of the election. In part, this may be due to the planned Berlin Conference, with high expectations that this can produce some form of a jumpstart to the entire process. However, expectations may be unrealistic, with the conference likely to concentrate on the issues of foreign forces and the implementation of the ceasefire, rather than the purely political issues which are the exclusive remit of the Libyan-owned process. As the deadline for solving the election-related issues loom, the LPDF is due to meet, and legislation in the form of the LPDF roadmap and UNSC resolution 2570 does provide the potential means to proceed according to the laid out timeline if so required. ▪ The coastal road continues to pose an issue, with PM Dbeibah declaring the route open from the Western side on Jun 20, however, the gesture was not reciprocated by the LNA who claim that they are awaiting the outcome of a JMC meeting on Jun 21 before they open from the east. Nevertheless, it is expected that the route will reopen before the Berlin Conference if only to show a willingness by the LNA. The new LNA counterterrorism operation in the southwest of the country has also raised concerns of attempts by the LNA to expand their territory under the guise of counterterrorism. The operation also creates the potential for unintended clashes between groups that are loosely aligned with the GNU or LNA as the latter moves into areas not previously under their control. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. In many respects, the GNU is being seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he builds a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ The HoR met as planned in Tobruk to discuss the budget and sovereign positions on June 14. During the proceedings, HoR member Mosbah Douma raised the visit of the Turkish Defence Minister, Hulusi Akar, and his comments, which he regarded as an insult to all Libyans. This reportedly led to heated exchanges between HoR members and unconfirmed reporting indicates GardaWorld Confidential & Proprietary Confidential GardaWorld 1 202 3 © that the session was suspended with no agreement on the budget. At a reconvened session on Jun 15 the HoR session on the budget once again failed to pass the legislation or discuss the appointment of the sovereign positions. Reportedly the budget bill has been sent to the HoR planning and finance committee with a new session on the subject planned for Jun 29. ▪ On Jun 14, French President Emmanuel Macron met with Turkish President Erdogan at the Brussels NATO conference. In a subsequent press interview Macron stated that they had ‘agreed to work on this withdrawal (of foreign mercenaries). It doesn't just depend on the two of us. But I can tell you President Erdogan confirmed during our meeting his wish that the foreign mercenaries, the foreign militias, operating on Libyan soil leave as soon as possible.’ ▪ On Jun 15 an extraordinary consultative meeting of the Arab League was convened in Qatar and attended by the Libyan Foreign Minister, Najla Mangoush. Mangoush briefed the League that an initiative to provide stability in Libya would be presented at the upcoming Berlin II conference and that this would be underpinned by the full implementation of the provisions of the Oct 2020 ceasefire provisions, including a workable timetable for the departure of all foreign forces and the reopening of the coastal road. She also briefed on the formation of the High Council for National Reconciliation and the development of community dialogues in order to give depth to the societal reunification of the country. ▪ Open sources report a proposed French plan for the removal of all foreign forces from Libya which was presented to US President Biden during the recent Brussels NATO meeting. The plan proposes a six-month timeframe that would first see the removal of all Turkish-backed Syrian fighters, followed by the repatriation of all Russian-backed Syrian fighters. This phase is intended to be completed by Jul 01. Following the completion of the first phase, all Turkish troops and Wagner mercenaries would depart the country during September.