SCALING Bruce Manclark, Sr. Business Intelligence Consultant, CLEAResult Scaling: What it Takes © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 2 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 3 What it Takes to Scale ACCESS TO LOTS OF COMMUNITY SOLID MANAGEMENT HIGH LEVELS OF POLITICAL WILL MONEY OUTREACH AND DATA QUALITY CONTROL PARTNERS MANAGEMENT BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 4 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 5 BECC 2019 On a National Level … BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 6 CITY OF SEATTLE RESOLUTION 31312 • Passed in 2013 • Goal: Achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 7 EcotopeAccordingReports to Ecotope That … • This goal translates into an 81% reduction of natural gas usage • YES—that means fuel switching in homes with gas and conservation in homes with electricity 8 BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 8 Costs Not Accounted For … • Transmission and distribution costs • Energy and carbon embedded in program delivery • Climate change resulting from leaked refrigerant BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 9 Assumptions • Most Seattle homeowners will not choose to weatherize and fuel switch on their own • Homeowners do not want increased energy costs • Homeowners want existing or improved levels of comfort BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 10 The Hood River Conservation Project Launched in the early 80’s, the project explored the cost effectiveness of a residential energy improvement program. • From 1983 to 1985, after intense community outreach, 92% of eligible homes were served • 2600kWh saved per house, which equates to $22,000,000 in 1985 dollars, or $45,000,000 today BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 11 More NW History: Eugene Water and Electric Board DSM program performance stats for Oregon’s largest customer-owned utility: • Program staff: 35 • In 1994 5,500 homes participated • 10% of all homes in one year • Between 1983-1995, the program’s cumulative savings total represented 7% of total load BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 12 MEGAPROJECT >$1 billion projects with substantial impacts on communities and environments BECC 2019 Grand Coulee Dam • Constructed 1933-1942 • Largest power station in the US (by nameplate capacity) • Cost $1.8 billion in 2016 dollars 14BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 14 Grand Coulee Dam • ~8,000 people worked on the dam • Most workers came from surrounding counties, nearly all were men • Bureau of Reclamation provided housing in two cities built for the project (Government Camp and Mason City), primarily for engineers, inspectors, and other Bureau employees • 10,000-12,000 lower-wage laborers lived in more than 10 shanty towns that grew up to house both dam workers and the people who served them BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 15 Scaling Up Calculator BECC 2019 The General Approach COLLECT COLLECT ASSUME AUDITING 20% AVERAGE LABOR SOME AND MANAGE- COSTS HOURS EFFICIENCY INSPECTION MENT PER JOB OF SCALE COSTS BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 17 Barriers • Less than 10% of homes have central heat pumps today • The NW has a poor history of getting heat pumps installed correctly • The love affair with gas cooktops • High cost of housing BECC 2019 And the Answer IS … Total Installation Cost $3,217,559,698 Admin/Overhead 20% Admin/Overhead Cost $643,511,940 Total Cost $3,861,071,637 Average Cost per Home $19,183 Average Cost per Home/Year $1,918 BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 19 How Much Work Is This? • 346 finished homes per week • 70 per day • About 2,000 active projects at any given time • 8,000 gas furnace converted per year • 10,000 attics insulated per year BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 20 Total Labor Total number of employee days 1, 459,662 Workdays per year 261 Years of effort 10 Total number of days 2,610 Number of employees per year 559 BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 21 22 About Those Stadiums MetLife Stadium (New York Jets/Giants 2010) $1,737 AT&T Stadium (Dallas Cowboys, 2009) $1,318 Levi’s Stadium (San Francisco 49ers, 2014) $1,310 US Bank Stadium (Minnesota Vikings 2016) $1,079 Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis Colts, 2008) $792 Soldier Field (Chicago Bears, 2003) $755 Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia Eagles, 2003) $666 Ford Field (Detroit Lions, 2002) $658 NRC Stadium (Houston Texans, 2002) $624 Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati Bengals, 2000) $619 Gillette Stadium (New England Patriots, 2002) $542 Sports Authority Field (Denver Broncos, 2001) $536 BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 22 Seattle’s Highway 99 Tunnel: -2 miles long -6 years to build -$3.3 billion 2 3 BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 23 If 20-Year Bonds Were Sold … 4% 20 Years $4,300,000,000 Interest Rate Loan Length Total Borrowed $5,934,709,680 $1,476 $24,727,957 Total Cost Over Cost per House Monthly Payment Life of Loan per Year BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 24 PRESENTED AT 2018 Key Points ACEEE • Pilot programs have proven that high saturation rates are A National Retrofit possible Challenge to Meet the • Average cost $25,000 Paris Goal of 1,5 Degrees • Whole -house retrofits are not cost effective from the current David B. Goldstein, “energy only” point of view Natural Resources Defense Council Peter Turnbull, Pacific Gas & Electric Company Cathy Higgins, New Buildings Institute BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 25 Open-Ended Question Who manages such a project? BECC 2019 © CLEAResult. All rights reserved. 26 THANK YOU BECC 2019.