Disclaimer- This report was prepared for Sapere Research Group, to inform their work on the Upper North Island Supply Chain Strategy. It does not represent the views of the Ministry of Transport. Upper North Island Supply Chain Strategy Infrastructure Gary Blick and David Moore 30 June 2020 Contents Glossary of Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 Executive summary ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1. Purpose and scope............................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.1 Purpose of this report ................................................................................................................................ 8 1.2 Scope of this report .................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Approach ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Steps in the analysis ................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Period of analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Building on prior studies .......................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 The base case ................................................................................................................................................ 9 2.5 Options and sites ....................................................................................................................................... 10 2.6 Responsibilities ........................................................................................................................................... 10 3. Outlook for freight growth and vessel size ............................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Forecasting growth in container freight ........................................................................................... 11 3.2 Sizing the future freight task ................................................................................................................. 13 3.3 The container forecast is the most critical ....................................................................................... 14 3.4 Outlook for larger container vessels .................................................................................................. 15 3.5 Implications for POAL .............................................................................................................................. 15 4. Port infrastructure requirements ................................................................................................................................ 16 4.1 Approach ...................................................................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Ports of Auckland – the base case ...................................................................................................... 17 4.3 Northport option ....................................................................................................................................... 22 4.4 Port of Tauranga option ......................................................................................................................... 25 4.5 Northport and Port of Tauranga option ........................................................................................... 30 4.6 Firth of Thames option ............................................................................................................................ 33 4.7 Manukau Harbour option ...................................................................................................................... 35 4.8 Summary of port infrastructure costs ................................................................................................ 38 5. Rail infrastructure requirements ................................................................................................................................. 39 5.1 Method .......................................................................................................................................................... 39 5.2 Base case ....................................................................................................................................................... 40 5.3 Northport option ....................................................................................................................................... 41 5.4 Port of Tauranga option ......................................................................................................................... 43 5.5 Firth of Thames option ............................................................................................................................ 44 5.6 Manukau Harbour option ...................................................................................................................... 45 5.7 Summary of rail infrastructure costs .................................................................................................. 46 6. Road infrastructure requirements .............................................................................................................................. 47 1 © 2020 Sapere Research Group 6.1 Method .......................................................................................................................................................... 47 6.2 Traffic modelling under redevelopment scenarios ...................................................................... 48 6.3 Road infrastructure required for existing ports ............................................................................. 50 6.4 Road connections required for new ports ....................................................................................... 52 6.5 Summary of road infrastructure costs ............................................................................................... 53 7. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Appendix A: Port capacity plots ..................................................................................................................................... 56 Tables Table 1 Technical inputs from expert contributors ....................................................................................................... 10 Table 2 Container freight forecasts for Ports of Auckland – compounding annual growth rates ............. 12 Table 3 Container freight forecasts for Ports of Auckland – size of future freight task ................................. 13 Table 4 Bulk freight forecasts for Ports of Auckland – size of future freight task ............................................ 13 Table 5 Vehicle import forecasts for Ports of Auckland – size of future freight task ...................................... 13 Table 6 Cost estimates of port infrastructure requirements ..................................................................................... 38 Table 7 Cost estimates of rail infrastructure for Northport ....................................................................................... 42 Table 8 Cost estimates of rail infrastructure for Port of Tauranga ......................................................................... 43 Table 9 Cost estimates of rail infrastructure for Firth of Thames ............................................................................ 44 Table 10 Cost estimates of rail infrastructure for Manukau Harbour .................................................................... 45 Table 11 Cost estimates of rail infrastructure requirements ..................................................................................... 46 Table 12 Number of trucks per day forecast in 2053................................................................................................... 47 Table 13 Waterfront redevelopment land use assumptions ..................................................................................... 48 Table 14 Average Travel Speeds in the Auckland CBD, 2036 (km per hour) ...................................................... 49 Table 15 Cost estimates for road infrastructure for the Northport option ......................................................... 50 Table 16 Cost estimates for road infrastructure for the Port of Tauranga option ........................................... 51 Table 17 Cost estimates for road connections to new ports .................................................................................... 52 Table 18 Cost estimates of road infrastructure requirements .................................................................................