This report analyses the Russian authoritarian regime that emerged under Vladimir Putin and attempts to give a wider context to the so-called FSB-ization of the Russian government. The Dual Structure and Mentality of Joris van Bladel The first part of the report deals with Putin’s main achievements in domestic and foreign policy and examines the extent to which state policy has fulfilled the aspirations of the Russian public. The much-needed stability and Vladimir Putin’s Power Coalition security that Putin has brought to the country seem to outweigh the fact that the government has veered towards authoritarianism. The degree to which Russian society has truly been taken over by the FSB is critically examined, A legacy for Medvedev and this process of FSB-ization is explained in a wider social and historical context. DR. JORIS VAN BLADEL The second part aims to bring some insight into the current political dynamic by examining the power relations in the coalition and the mentalities typical of the major factions: the ‘siloviki’ and the liberal. In particular, the ‘siloviki’ are critically examined with regard to their history, their typical modes of thinking, and their rise to influence. The very notion of ‘siloviki’ is given a more precise explanation by showing why they have come to power, whom the term ‘siloviki’ should actually be applied to, what their mode of thinking is like, and how PowerCoalition Putin’s Vladimir of Mentality and Dual Structure The influential they are likely to be in the future. The study then focuses on the actual siloviki faction: its members, its role, and its influence. A similar presentation of the neglected, yet influential liberal faction is given by way of comparison. The arrival of the new regime of Dmitry Medvedev and his entourage marks a new era, making this a key moment to revisit the policies adopted by the EU towards Russia. The report concludes with likely scenarios for the future, and it makes recommendations for policy positions and other measures likely to lead to better relations with the Russian Federation. For a selection of other FOI reports on Russia and its neighbours, please look at the last pages of this report FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 55 50 30 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2519--SE User report Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 55 50 31 00 ISSN 1650-1942 May 2008 SE-164 90 Stockholm Dr. Joris Van Bladel The Dual Structure and Mentality of Vladimir Putin’s Power Coalition A legacy for Medvedev Division for Defence Analysis Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) Joris van Bladel The Dual Structure and Mentality of Vladimir Putin’s Power Coalition Titel Den dubbla strukturen och mentaliteten inom Vladimir Putins maktkoalition: Ett arv för Medvedev Title The Dual Structure and Mentality of Vladimir Putin’s Power Coalition: A Legacy for Medvedev Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2519--SE Rapporttyp Användarrapport Report Type User report Månad/Month Maj/May Utgivningsår/Year 2008 Antal sidor/Pages 113 ISSN ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartementet Forskningsområde 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet Programme area 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analysis Delområde 11 Forskning för regeringens behov Subcategory 11 Policy Support to the Government. Projektnr/Project no A 12001 Godkänd av/Approved by Sara Gullbrandsson FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys 164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm 2 FOI-R--2519--SE Abstract This report analyses the Russian authoritarian regime that emerged under Vladimir Putin and attempts to give a wider context to the so-called FSB-ization of the Russian government. The first part of the report deals with Putin’s main achievements in domestic and foreign policy and examines the extent to which state policy has fulfilled the aspirations of the Russian public. The much-needed stability and security that Putin has brought to the country seem to outweigh the fact that the government has veered towards authoritarianism. The degree to which Russian society has truly been taken over by the FSB is critically examined, and this process of FSB-ization is explained in a wider social and historical context. The second part aims to bring some insight into the current political dynamic by examining the power relations in the coalition and the mentalities typical of the major factions: the ‘siloviki’ and the liberal. In particular, the ‘siloviki’ are critically examined with regard to their history, their typical modes of thinking, and their rise to influence. The very notion of ‘siloviki’ is given a more precise explanation by showing why they have come to power, whom the term ‘siloviki’ should actually be applied to, what their mode of thinking is like, and how influential they are likely to be in the future. The study then focuses on the actual siloviki faction: its members, its role, and its influence. A similar presentation of the neglected, yet influential liberal faction is given by way of comparison. The arrival of the new regime of Dmitry Medvedev and his entourage could mark a new era, making this a key moment to revisit the policies adopted by the EU towards Russia. The report concludes with likely scenarios for the future, and it makes recommendations for policy positions and other measures likely to lead to better relations with the Russian Federation. Keywords: Russia, democracy, authoritarian regime, FSB, siloviki, power coalition, mentality, domestic policy, foreign policy, Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev 3 Joris van Bladel The Dual Structure and Mentality of Vladimir Putin’s Power Coalition Sammanfattning Föreliggande rapport analyserar den auktoritära politiska regim som växt fram under Vladimir Putins presidentskap och försöker sätta den så kallade FSB-iseringen av den ryska statsapparaten i en bredare kontext. Rapportens första del behandlar Putins huvudsakliga åstadkommanden på det inrikes- respektive utrikespolitiska området. Vidare granskas till vilken utsträckning politiken kan sägas ha uppfyllt det ryska folkets önskemål. Den efterfrågade stabilitet och säkerhet som Putin åstadkommit synes uppväga det faktum att den politiska ledningen slagit in på en auktoritär kurs. Den grad till vilken det ryska samhället verkligen har tagits över av FSB granskas kritiskt och FSB-iseringsprocessen förklaras i en vidare social och historisk kontext. Den andra delen av denna rapport syftar till att ge viss insikt i den rådande politiska dynamiken i Ryssland, genom att undersöka maktförhållandena inom koalitionen samt de mentaliteter som är karaktäristiska för de huvudsakliga grupperingarna inom den ryska makteliten: siloviker och liberaler. I synnerhet de så kallade silovikerna granskas kritiskt avseenden deras historia, karaktäristiska tankemönster och väg till makten. Själva begreppet siloviker ges en mer precis förklaring genom att peka ut skälen till att de kom till makten, vilka termen silovik faktiskt bör appliceras på, hur deras tankemönster ser ut samt hur inflytelserika de kan förväntas bli framgent. Vidare fokuseras på silovik-fraktionen: dess medlemmar, roll och inflytande. En motsvarande presentation av den förbisedda, men inflytelserika, liberala fraktionen presenteras som jämförelse. Den förnyelse av den ryska politiska regimen som Dmitri Medvedevs och hans följeslagares tillträde till makten kan innebära en ny era och utgör ett avgörande tillfälle att se över den politik som EU för mot Ryssland. Rapporten avslutas med troliga scenarier för framtiden och policyrekommendationer som kan leda till förbättringar av relationen till den Ryska federationen. Nyckelord: Ryssland, demokrati, auktoritär regim, FSB, silovik, maktkoalition, mentalitet, inrikespolitik, utrikespolitik, Vladimir Putin, Dmitri Medvedev 4 FOI-R--2519--SE Executive Summary The Putin regime draws its legitimacy from three main factors: a successful economy, the Constitution of 1993, and Putin’s great popularity with the Russian people. Russia’s economic success, contrary to common assumption, is due not only to the high gas and oil revenues, but also to the growth of the consumer and construction industries and some success in attracting foreign investors. The 1993 constitution, which Putin has not altered, legitimizes the continuity between the Yeltsin and Putin regimes. The difference between Putin’s regime and Yeltsin's is consequently only a matter of degree, not one of principle, for Putin’s super-presidential regime was actually installed by Yeltsin. Western opinion makers generally praise the Yeltsin regime and criticize the Putin one, a tendency that is largely due to a KGB phobia lingering over from the Cold War era. Without neglecting the dubious past of this security service agency, Western observers