California Auto Outlook TM Publication Sponsored By: Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 16, Number 3 Released August 2020 Covering Second Quarter 2020 Sales Low Point Likely Reached in Second Quarter; 11 Percent Increase Predicted for 2021 California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2021 New vehicle registrations in Cal- ifornia are expected to decline to 2.5 2.21 1.63 million units in 2020, down 2.16 2.20 2.15 2.09 ANNUAL 1.93 22 percent from last year. 1.80 1.81 2.0 1.62 1.63 TRENDS 1.45 Latest projections are for the 1.29 1.5 1.17 1.04 market to exceed 1.8 million units 1.0 in 2021, an increase of more than 10 percent from this year. 0.5 Although the trend is positive, New vehicle regs. (millions) 0.0 sales will be subject to periods '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20* '21* of ups and downs due to possible Years surges in the virus and any busi- Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. *‘20 and ‘21 forecasts by Auto Outlook. ness shutdowns. California Total New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - YTD 2019 & 2020, thru June California U.S. YTD '19 YTD '20 Change YTD '19 YTD '20 Change Registrations California new light vehicle mar- TWO YEAR TOTAL 1,075,658 786,219 -26.9% 8,471,317 6,480,506 -23.5% ket declined 26.9 percent during Car 457,835 294,783 -35.6% 2,523,734 1,620,012 -35.8% the first six months of this year PERSPECTIVE Light Truck 617,823 491,436 -20.5% 5,947,583 4,860,494 -18.3% versus a year earlier. The U.S. Domestic 349,741 262,501 -24.9% 3,837,523 2,951,304 -23.1% market fell 23.5 percent. European 160,049 114,692 -28.3% 790,296 620,992 -21.4% Japanese 494,172 353,176 -28.5% 3,195,319 2,364,736 -26.0% Light truck registrations in the Korean 71,696 55,850 -22.1% 648,179 543,474 -16.2% state declined 20.5 percent Market Share versus the 35.6 percent drop for Car 42.6 37.5 -5.1 29.8 25.0 -4.8 passenger cars. Light Truck 57.4 62.5 5.1 70.2 75.0 4.8 Light truck market share in Domestic 32.5 33.4 0.9 45.3 45.5 0.2 California was 62.5 percent in European 14.9 14.6 -0.3 9.3 9.6 0.3 the first half of this year vs. 75.0 Japanese 45.9 44.9 -1.0 37.7 36.5 -1.2 percent in the Nation. Korean 6.7 7.1 0.4 7.7 8.4 0.7 Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News. California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations The California new vehicle Percent Change vs. Year Earlier market felt the full impact of the QUARTERLY 100.0% COVID-19 pandemic in the Sec- ond Quarter of this year, as new RESULTS 50.0% vehicle registrations declined by nearly 50 percent versus year 0.0% earlier. -3.5% -3.7% -3.8% -0.3% -4.3% -50.0% -48.9% The market showed signs -100.0% of stabilizing as the quarter % chgange vs. year earlier 1Q '19 vs. 2Q '19 vs. 3Q '19 vs. 4Q '19 vs. 1Q '20 vs. 2Q '20 vs. progressed. June registrations 1Q '18 2Q '18 3Q '18 4Q '18 1Q '19 2Q '19 fell by less than 20 percent Data source: AutoCount data from Experian. compared to 2019. Page 2 California Auto Outlook SEGMENT MARKET SHARE TRENDS Non Luxury SUV Market Share in California Increases to 33 Percent Segment Market Shares in California Segment Market Shares in California YTD 2019 thru June YTD 2020 thru June Luxury & Sports Luxury & Sports Cars, 11% Cars, 10% Non Luxury Mid Non Luxury SUVs, Non Luxury SUVs, 33% 30% Size & Large Cars, Non Luxury Mid 11% Size & Large Cars, 13% Non Luxury SUV Non Luxury SUV YTD ‘19: YTD ‘20: Luxury SUVs, 12% Luxury SUVs, 11% 30% 33% Pickups and Vans, Small Cars, 19% 16% Small Cars, 16% Pickups and Vans, 18% Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first six months of 2019 and 2029. HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric Vehicle Market Share Moved Higher During First Half of 2020 Hybrid/electric vehicle Estimated Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share market share in 1st half of 2020: 7.0% 13.4 percent 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Estimated Hybrid and Electric New Vehicle Registrations and Market Share YTD 3.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Market Share 2.0% Electric registrations 41932 59388 99121 106752 45601 Electric share 1.9% 2.7% 4.6% 5.1% 5.8% 1.0% Hybrid regs. (excl. plug ins) 105934 101180 92658 117218 44028 0.0% Hybrid share (excl. plug ins) 4.8% 4.6% 4.3% 5.6% 5.6% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD '20 Plug in hybrid regs. 37518 48391 64644 52329 15724 Electric Hybrid (excl. plug ins) Plug In Hybrid Plug in hybrid share 1.7% 2.2% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% The graph above shows estimated hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle market share in the state. Registrations by powertrain for vehicles equipped with multiple engine types were estimated by Auto Outlook. The estimates are based on model registrations compiled by Experian, and engine installation rates collected from other sources. Covering Second Quarter 2020 Page 3 MODEL RANKINGS Honda Civic Regains Top Spot in California New Vehicle Market; RAV4 is Second The table below shows the top five selling models during the BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTS first six months of 2020 in 20 Compact Car: Honda Civic Full Size Pickup: Ford F-Series segments. In addition to unit Mid Size Car: Toyota Camry Compact SUV: Toyota RAV4 registrations, it also shows each model’s market share in its re- Near Luxury Car: Tesla Model 3 Mid Size SUV: Toyota Highlander spective segment. Luxury Car: Mercedes E-Class Luxury Mid Size SUV: Lexus RX Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD 2020, thru June) Cars Subcompact Compact Sports/Pony Cars Mid Size Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Chevrolet Bolt 3575 20.8 Honda Civic 29974 31.0 Ford Mustang 4764 37.6 Toyota Camry 25950 32.6 Nissan Versa 2865 16.7 Toyota Corolla 21771 22.5 Dodge Challenger 4208 33.2 Honda Accord 19962 25.0 Kia Soul 2854 16.6 Toyota Prius 7511 7.8 Chevrolet Camaro 2015 15.9 Nissan Altima 8452 10.6 Honda Fit 2615 15.2 Nissan Sentra 6694 6.9 Mazda MX5 599 4.7 Ford Fusion 6607 8.3 Chevrolet Spark 1249 7.3 Kia Forte 5407 5.6 Hyundai Veloster 521 4.1 Kia Optima 5400 6.8 Large Entry Luxury Near Luxury Luxury and High End Sports Cars Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Dodge Charger 5658 65.9 Mercedes CLA-Class 1447 24.0 Tesla Model 3 24850 48.5 Mercedes E-Class 2913 13.3 Nissan Maxima 849 9.9 Mercedes A-Class 1389 23.0 BMW 3-Series 4893 9.6 BMW 5-Series 2767 12.7 Toyota Avalon 830 9.7 Audi A3 1043 17.3 Lexus ES 4050 7.9 Tesla Model S 2398 11.0 Chrysler 300 674 7.9 BMW 2-Series 986 16.3 Mercedes C-Class 3410 6.7 Audi A6 1237 5.7 Chevrolet Impala 493 5.7 Acura ILX 911 15.1 Audi A4 1693 3.3 Porsche 911 1225 5.6 Light Trucks Compact/Mid Size Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Van Large Van Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Toyota Tacoma 18165 52.8 Ford F-Series 24204 31.0 Honda Odyssey 4211 30.6 Ford Transit Connect 8136 49.2 Ford Ranger 5556 16.2 Chevrolet Silverado 21132 27.1 Chrysler Pacifica 3913 28.4 Mercedes Sprinter 2354 14.2 Chevrolet Colorado 4055 11.8 Ram Pickup 19306 24.7 Toyota Sienna 2712 19.7 Ram Promaster 1925 11.6 Jeep Gladiator 2677 7.8 GMC Sierra 8192 10.5 Chrysler Voyager 1737 12.6 Nissan NV 1808 10.9 Nissan Frontier 1980 5.8 Toyota Tundra 4766 6.1 Dodge Caravan 606 4.4 Chevrolet Express 1226 7.4 Subcompact SUV Compact SUV Mid Size SUV Large SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Honda HR-V 5674 15.3 Toyota RAV4 27076 22.9 Toyota Highlander 9009 10.4 Chevrolet Tahoe 3023 25.1 Toyota C-HR 4548 12.3 Honda CR-V 15346 13.0 Ford Explorer 8960 10.4 Ford Expedition 2317 19.3 Hyundai Kona 3887 10.5 Mazda CX5 9223 7.8 Subaru Outback 7774 9.0 Chevrolet Suburban 1718 14.3 Nissan Kicks 3058 8.2 Jeep Wrangler 9184 7.8 Jeep Grand Cherokee 6079 7.0 GMC Yukon 1498 12.5 Kia Niro 3058 8.2 Subaru Forester 8549 7.2 Toyota 4Runner 5477 6.3 Nissan Armada 1364 11.3 Luxury Subcompact SUV Luxury Compact SUV Luxury Mid Size SUV Luxury Large SUV Model Regs.