Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics Ministry of Counter Narcotics Vienna International Centre, PO Box 500, 1400 Vienna, Austria Banayee Bus Station, Jalalabad Main Road Tel.: (+43-1) 26060-0, Fax: (+43-1) 26060-5866, www.unodc.org 9th District, Kabul, Afghanistan Tel.: (+93) 799891851, www.mcn.gov.af AFGHANISTAN OPIUM SURVEY 2011 OPIUM SURVEY AFGHANISTAN Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012 2013 MAY Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012 ABBREVIATIONS AGE Anti-government Elements ANP Afghan National Police CNPA Counter Narcotics Police of Afghanistan GLE Governor-led Eradication ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) ISAF International Security Assistance Force MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report: Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar (Deputy Minister), Haroon Rashid Sherzad (Deputy Minister), Mir Abdullah Sadat (Director of Narcotics Survey Directorate), Saraj Ahmad (Deputy Director of Narcotics Survey Directorate), Nasir Ahmad (Deputy Director of Narcotics Survey Directorate), Shiraz Khan Hadawe (GIS & Remote Sensing Analyst), Mohammad Sadiq Rizaee (GIS & Remote Sensing Analyst), , Mohammad Ajmal (Database Officer), Sayed Najibullah Ahmadi (Economic Specialist) ,Sahar Yousofzai (Data Entry Clerk), Mohammad Hakim Hayat (Data Entry Clerk), Sayed Shainsha Sadat (Data Entry Clerk), Fazel Karim Alimi (Admin/Finance Assistant) and Hamida Hussaini (Administrative Officer). Survey Coordinators: Sayed Eshaq Masumi (Central Region), Abdul Mateen (Eastern Region), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Western Region), Fida Mohammad (Northern Region), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (North-eastern Region), Khalil Ahmad Noori (Southern Region) and Khiali Jan Mangal (Eradication Verification and Opium Yield coordinator). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Jean-Luc Lemahieu (Country Representative), Ashita Mittal (Deputy Representative, Programme), Devashish Dhar (International Project Coordinator), Ziauddin Zaki (National Project Coordinator), Abdul Manan Ahmadzai (Senior Survey Officer), Noor Mohammad Sadiq (Database Developer). Remote sensing analysts: Ahmad Jawid Ghiasee and Sayed Mehdi Sadat. Eradication reporters: Zia Ulhaq Sidiqi. Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (Eastern Region), Bashir Ahmad Shakir (Southern Region), Fawad Ahmad Alaie (Western Region), Sayed Emran Mehrwarz (North-eastern Region), Rahimullah Omar (Central Region). Provincial Coordinators: Mohammad Alam Ghalib (Eastern Region), Altaf Hussain Joya (Western Region), Lutfurhaman Lutfi (Northern Region). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Sandeep Chawla (Director, Division for Policy Analysis and Public Affairs), Angela Me (Chief, Research and Trend Analysis Branch), Martin Raithelhuber (Programme Officer), Philip Davis (Statistician), Coen Bussink (GIS & Remote Sensing Expert), Irmgard Zeiler (Research Expert), Suzanne Kunnen (Public Information Assistant), Jonathan Gibbons (Editor). The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions. The MCN/UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the Governments of Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The support of aerial photographs provided by Alcis Ltd. for ground truth information is acknowledged. 2 Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012 CONTENTS KEY FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................... 11 FACT SHEET AFGHANISTAN OPIUM SURVEY 2012 ........................................................ 13 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 17 2 OPIUM CULTIVATION ............................................................................................ 18 2.1 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL OPIUM CULTIVATION TRENDS................................. 18 2.2 REGIONAL BREAKDOWN ............................................................................................... 24 3 ERADICATION ........................................................................................................... 33 3.1 POPPY ERADICATION INCREASED BY 154% IN 2012 ............................................... 33 3.2 QUALITY CONTROL OF REPORTED ERADICATION WITH SATELLITE IMAGES 39 4 POTENTIAL OPIUM YIELD AND PRODUCTION .............................................. 40 4.1 POTENTIAL OPIUM YIELD AND PRODUCTION DECREASED IN 2012 ................... 40 4.2 REVISION OF POTENTIAL OPIUM PRODUCTION IN AFGHANISTAN 2006-2009 .. 43 4.3 OPIUM POPPY VARIETIES .............................................................................................. 46 5 RESULTS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SURVEY .............................................. 47 5.1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SURVEY 2012 .................................................................................. 47 5.2 THE LINK BETWEEN SECURITY AND OPIUM CULTIVATION ................................ 47 5.3 ACCESS TO MARKETS ..................................................................................................... 48 5.4 OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION, ACCESS TO BASIC DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES AND AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE ............................................................................ 49 5.5 POPPY AND CANNABIS CULTIVATION ARE CLOSELY RELATED ........................ 52 5.6 REASONS FOR CULTIVATING OPIUM POPPY ............................................................ 54 5.7 DAILY WAGES FOR OPIUM LANCING ......................................................................... 56 5.8 OUTSTANDING LOANS ................................................................................................... 56 5.9 INCOME OF FARMING HOUSEHOLDS ......................................................................... 57 6 THE OPIATE ECONOMY ......................................................................................... 59 6.1 OPIUM PRICES ................................................................................................................... 59 6.2 FARM-GATE VALUE OF OPIUM PRODUCTION AND INCOME FROM OPIUM ...... 62 6.3 POTENTIAL VALUE OF THE OPIATE ECONOMY ....................................................... 64 7 METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................... 71 7.1 ESTIMATION OF AREA UNDER OPIUM CULTIVATION ............................................ 71 7.2 SATELLITE IMAGE INTERPRETATION ........................................................................ 76 7.3 OPIUM YIELD AND PRODUCTION ................................................................................ 82 7.4 ERADICATION VERIFICATION METHODOLOGY ...................................................... 85 7.5 VILLAGE SURVEY METHODOLOGY ............................................................................ 86 7.6 AVERAGE FARM-GATE PRICE AND FARM-GATE VALUE OF OPIUM PRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 88 7.7 ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF THE AFGHAN OPIATE ECONOMY .......................... 88 ANNEX I: OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION PER PROVINCE, 2002-2012 (HECTARES) 92 3 Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012 ANNEX II: INDICATIVE DISTRICT LEVEL ESTIMATES OF OPIUM CULTIVATION, 2001-2012 (HECTARES) .............................................................................................................. 93 ANNEX III: ERADICATION FIGURES, BY DISTRICT (2012) ............................................ 99 ANNEX IV: ERADICATION SCENES, BY REGION ........................................................... 102 ANNEX V: SELECTED EXAMPLES OF ERADICATION OVER- AND UNDER- REPORTING .............................................................................................................................. 106 4 Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012 FIGURES Figure 1: Opium cultivation in Afghanistan, 1994-2012 (Hectares)................................................. 18 Figure 2: Global opium cultivation, 1997-2012 (Hectares) ............................................................... 21 Figure 3: Opium cultivation in Nangarhar province, 1994-2012 (Hectares) ................................... 25 Figure 4: Opium cultivation in Laghman, Kunar , Nuristan and Kapisa provinces, 1994-2012 (Hectares) ..................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 5: Opium cultivation in Badakhshan province, 1994-2012 (Hectares) ................................ 27 Figure 6: Opium cultivation in the Northern region, 2004-2012 (Hectares) ................................... 28 Figure 7: Opium cultivation in Day Kundi province, 1994-2012 ..................................................... 30 Figure 8: Opium cultivation in Hilmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan provinces, 2004-2012 (Hectares) ..................................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 9: Opium cultivation in Badghis province, 2004-2012 (Hectares) ........................................ 32 Figure 10: Opium cultivation in Farah province, 1994-2012 (Hectares)