Use of Species Distribution Modeling in the Deep Sea E. Kenchington, O. Callery, F. Davidson, A. Grehan, T. Morato, J. Appiott, A. Davis, P. Dunstan, C. Du Preez, J. Finney, J.M. González-Irusta, K. Howell, A. Knudby, M. Lacharité, J. Lee, F. J. Murillo, L. Beazley, J.M. Roberts, M. Roberts, C. Rooper, A. Rowden, E. Rubidge, R. Stanley, D. Stirling, K.R. Tanaka, J. Vanhatalo, B. Weigel, S. Woolley and C. Yesson Ocean and Ecosystem Sciences Division Maritimes Region Fisheries and Oceans Canada Bedford Institute of Oceanography PO Box 1006 Dartmouth, Nova Scotia Canada B2Y 4A2 2019 Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3296 Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Technical reports contain scientific and technical information that contributes to existing knowledge but which is not normally appropriate for primary literature. Technical reports are directed primarily toward a worldwide audience and have an international distribution. 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Les demandes de rapports seront satisfaites par l'établissement auteur dont le nom figure sur la couverture et la page du titre. Les numéros 1 à 456 de cette série ont été publiés à titre de Rapports techniques de l'Office des recherches sur les pêcheries du Canada. Les numéros 457 à 714 sont parus à titre de Rapports techniques de la Direction générale de la recherche et du développement, Service des pêches et de la mer, ministère de l'Environnement. Les numéros 715 à 924 ont été publiés à titre de Rapports techniques du Service des pêches et de la mer, ministère des Pêches et de l'Environnement. Le nom actuel de la série a été établi lors de la parution du numéro 925. Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3296 2019 USE OF SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING IN THE DEEP SEA by E. Kenchington1, O. Callery2, F. Davidson3, A. Grehan2, T. Morato4, J. Appiott5, A. Davis6, P. Dunstan7, C. Du Preez8, J. Finney9, J.M. González-Irusta4, K. Howell10, A. Knudby3, M. Lacharité11, J. Lee5, F.J. Murillo1, L. Beazley1, J.M. Roberts12, M. Roberts6, C. Rooper13, A. Rowden14, E. Rubidge8, R. Stanley1, D. Stirling15, K.R. Tanaka16, J. Vanhatalo17, B. Weigel17, S. Woolley7 and C. Yesson18 1 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada 2 National University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland 3 University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada 4 Institute of Marine Research, Azores, Portugal 5 Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 6 University of Bangor, Bangor, Wales, United Kingdom 7 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia 8 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada 9 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada 10 University of Plymouth, Plymouth, England, United Kingdom 11 Nova Scotia Community College, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada 12 University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom 13 Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America 14 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand 15 Marine Scotland Science, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom 16 Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America 17 University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland 18 Zoological Society of London, London, England, United Kingdom ii © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2019. Cat. N ° Fs97-6/3296E-PDF ISBN 978-0-660-29721-7 ISSN 1488-5379 Correct citation for this publication: Kenchington, E., Callery, O., Davidson, F., Grehan, A., Morato, T., Appiott, J., Davis, A., Dunstan, P., Du Preez, C., Finney, J., González-Irusta, J.M., Howell, K., Knudby, A., Lacharité, M., Lee, J., Murillo, F.J., Beazley, L., Roberts, J.M., Roberts, M., Rooper, C., Rowden, A., Rubidge, E., Stanley, R., Stirling, D., Tanaka, K.R., Vanhatalo, J., Weigel, B., Woolley, S. and Yesson, C. 2019. Use of Species Distribution Modeling in the Deep Sea. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3296: ix + 76 p. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... vii RÉSUMÉ ....................................................................................................................................... viii 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Setting the Context: Voluntary Specific Workplan on Biodiversity in Cold-water Areas within the Jurisdictional Scope of the Convention on Biological Diversity ................................... 1 J. Murray Roberts.................................................................................................................... 1 2. THEME 1 SHOWCASE OF APPROACHES TO DEVELOP SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS IN THE DEEP-SEA ..................................................................... 5 2.1. Model-Based Thinking for Community Ecology .................................................................. 6 2.1.1. Group Discussion ...................................................................................................... 8 2.2. Point Process Framework for Species Distribution Modeling and Joint Species Distribution Models............................................................................................................................................. 9 Jarno Vanhatalo ...................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.1. Group Discussion .................................................................................................... 17 3. EXTENDED ABSTRACTS .............................................................................................. 18 3.1. What do Environmental Managers and Stakeholders want from a Model? ........................ 19 Ashley A. Rowden ................................................................................................................ 19 3.1.1. Group Discussion .................................................................................................... 19 3.2. Rough Data: Imperfect Data and Directional Rugosity ...................................................... 20 Cherisse Du Preez, Emily Rubidge and Jessica Finney ........................................................ 20 3.3. Determining the best methods for model validation ........................................................... 24 Chris Rooper, Rachel Wilborn and Pam Goddard ................................................................ 24 3.3.1. Group Discussion .................................................................................................... 26 3.4. Distribution Models Applied to Climate Change in the Deep Sea. A Promising but Challenging Development Field ................................................................................................... 27 José Manuel González-Irusta and Telmo Morato ................................................................. 27 iv 3.4.1. Group Discussion .................................................................................................... 30 3.5. Including Predictions of Community Functional Traits in Species Distribution Models using Hierarchical Modeling of Species Communities (HMSC) ........................................................... 31 Benjamin Weigel .................................................................................................................. 31