Nigeria 2015: analysis of election issues and future prospects RESEARCH PAPER 15/02 19 January 2015 This paper looks at the multiple challenges facing Nigeria as it prepares for presidential and legislative elections on 14 February 2015. These elections will take place amidst an atmosphere of even greater crisis and uncertainty than usual. Boko Haram’s insurgency in the north of the country continues unabated. Over the last year, President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling People’s Democratic Party have been accused of a complacent and incompetent response to the insurgency. These developments, combined with deep divisions within the country’s elite, have resurrected old fears that the country might break up if the election aftermath is poorly handled. However, some observers remain remarkably hopeful about Nigeria’s future, predicting that its enormous economic potential is on the verge of being realised at last. The paper surveys the coming elections and then explores these hopes and fears about Nigeria’s future. It goes on to describe Nigeria’s relationships with the US, UK, EU, China and India before ending with a detailed country profile of Nigeria. “I sorry sorry o, I sorry for Nigeria” – song lyric by Femi Kuti “We know our time will come” – Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Jon Lunn and Daniel Harari Recent Research Papers 14/60 Unemployment by Constituency, November 2014 12.11.14 14/61 Privatisation 18.11.14 14/62 Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill: Committee Stage 17.11.14 Report 14/63 Counter-Terrorism and Security Bill [Bill 127 of 2014-15] 27.11.14 14/64 Economic Indicators, December 2014 02.12.14 14/65 Infrastructure Bill [HL] [Bill 124 of 2014-15] 04.12.14 14/66 Unemployment by Constituency, December 2014 17.12.14 14/67 Serious Crime Bill [Bill 116 of 2014-15] 18.12.14 14/68 Mutuals’ Deferred Shares Bill [HL] [Bill 145 of 2014-15] 29.12.14 2015 15/01 Economic Indicators, January 2015 06.01.15 Research Paper 15/02 Contributing Authors: Rob Page, sections 3.1-3.3 and 4.4 Louisa Brooke-Holland, section 4.7 Ben Smith, section 4.11 Matthew Ward, sections 2.2, 3.1-3.3 and 4.5 This information is provided to Members of Parliament in support of their parliamentary duties and is not intended to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual. It should not be relied upon as being up to date; the law or policies may have changed since it was last updated; and it should not be relied upon as legal or professional advice or as a substitute for it. A suitably qualified professional should be consulted if specific advice or information is required. This information is provided subject to our general terms and conditions which are available online or may be provided on request in hard copy. Authors are available to discuss the content of this briefing with Members and their staff, but not with the general public. We welcome comments on our papers; these should be e-mailed to [email protected]. ISSN 1368-8456 Contents Summary 2 1 Nigerian elections 2015: an update 5 1.1 Outcome of the 2011 elections 5 Map of the presidential election result 5 1.2 Build up to 2015 elections 6 2013: Jonathan on the back foot 7 2014: the PDP and APC trade blows 7 December 2014: the PDP and APC Conventions 8 Aspects of the 2015 election campaign 8 1.3 Will President Jonathan win again? 10 Jonathan’s record in office 10 An incumbency factor? 12 A second-round? 12 Will the APC be allowed to win? 12 2 Future prospects 13 2.1 Can Nigeria hold together? 13 2015: the nightmare scenario 13 Understanding Nigeria’s current political settlement 14 The 2014 National Conference: an opportunity for reform? 17 Prospects for a better political settlement 19 Conclusion 22 2.2 Is Nigeria an emerging economic giant? 23 Member of the MINT club 23 Current economic situation uncertain 24 The need to become less dependent on the oil sector 24 Young population expanding rapidly presents opportunity for growth 26 High poverty levels and poor education skills present barriers 26 Poor business environment and infrastructure hinders growth prospects 27 Conclusion 30 3 Nigeria’s foreign relations 30 3.1 US-Nigeria relations 30 Overview 30 Security 30 Trade 32 Aid 33 3.2 UK-Nigeria relations 33 Overview 33 Security 34 Trade 35 Aid 36 3.3 EU-Nigeria relations 37 Overview 37 Security 38 Trade 38 Aid 39 3.4 China-Nigeria relations 39 Overview 39 Strategic Partnership 40 Trade 40 Facets of the relationship 41 3.5 India-Nigeria relations 41 Overview 41 Trade 42 Facets of the relationship 42 4 Nigeria: country profile 44 4.1 History 44 4.2 The people of Nigeria 45 Population, ethnicity and language 45 Violence and insecurity 45 Public and private realms 45 Religion 46 Rising fundamentalisms 46 4.3 Human rights 47 Brutality and corruption 47 Impunity the norm 47 Positive developments since 1999 48 Ethnic and religious violence since 1999 48 Insurgency and terrorism in the Niger Delta and north-east 48 Police abuses 50 Homophobia 50 Election violence 50 4.4 Human development 51 Progress against MDG indicators: positives 51 Performance against MDG indicators: negatives 51 Spatial disparities 53 4.5 Economic profile 53 Background 53 Largest economy in Africa is more diverse than previously thought 54 Non-oil sectors behind growth in 2013 and 2014 55 Trade crucially dependent on oil exports 55 Fall in oil price dampens near-term economic outlook 57 4.6 Political profile 59 Constitution 59 Government 59 Parliament 60 Judiciary and legal systems 60 Main political parties 61 Political leaders 62 4.7 The Nigerian military 65 Overview 65 Equipment 65 Combating Boko Haram 66 Rise of vigilante groups 66 International support 67 Niger Delta and piracy 67 4.8 Armed militant groups 68 Boko Haram 68 Ansaru 71 Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta 71 4.9 The Nigerian diaspora 72 Size, location and character 72 Remittances 73 Nigerian government policies 73 A new unity? 74 The Nigerian diaspora in the UK and US 75 4.10 Membership of international and regional organisations 75 The United Nations (UN) 75 The African Union (AU) 76 The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 76 The Commonwealth 77 The African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP) 77 Other organisations 77 4.11 Selected treaty ratifications 78 5 Select bibliography and web sources 81 5.1 Books 81 5.2 Journals, articles and reports 81 5.3 Web sources 83 Official sources 83 Statistics and economic indicators 84 Other sources 84 i Nkonni Birn GoureGouré Zinder Bosso CHAD NIGERIA Illela Maradi Wurno NIGER Diffa Bol Dosso Sokoto Baga Lake Chad Daura Magaria Damasak gu to Nguru Komadu o k SOKOTO Katsina a So an Gumel G Kaura u g Namoda KATSINA Hadejia u N jia ad ig Birnin ade Kom e H BORNO N'Djamena r Kebbi Zamfa ra S Gusau o JIGAWA YOBE Gummi k o Kano ZAMFARA t Maiduguri Dikwa Kamba o Wudil m Damaturu a Gaya Gulbin Dutse r Ka Azare e ds Funtua KANO Potiskum Ye BamaBama KEBBI Dan BackiBacki Gulbi Kari Kandi Damboa Kandi Koko Limani la Mora YelwaYelwa Sabon Benin o Chibok Zaria g Bajoga Gwari n Mokolo o Biu Kainj KADUNA G Kontagora BAUCHI Maroua Reservoir Kaduna GOMBE BENIN K Bauchi a d Mubi u Gombe Gombi Guider Wawa NIGER na Jos Ndali Biliri Kajama ADAMAWA Minna Kanfanchan Léré Parakou Pala Pankshin Numan Garoua Amper Lau é CHAD Ni Bida PLATEAU Bénou ger Badeggi Abuja Yola Kisi KWARA Kwolla Jalingo FEDERAL Baro CAPITAL Q Shaki NASARAWA Ganye NIGERIA u TERRITORY é m OYO Ilorin Lafia é Ogbomosho B TARABA Tungo enue Ibi Oyo Lokoja Bali Kontcha Iseyin EKITI Wukari Iwo Osogbo Makurdi Ibadan Ife Ado-Ekiti KOGI Gboko Bohicon Akure BENUE Ngaoundéré OSUN r Ankpa Owo e Auchi Takum Abong Abeokuta g Oturkpo Katsina Ala Ondo ONDO i National capital N Ilaro OGUN A Gembu Banyo State capital Nkambe Ore N ENUGU Ikeja EDO Ogoja Town, village A Enugu Cotonou L LAGOS a Abakaliki M m Major airport Porto- g ba os Benin City Asaba B Awka EBONYI M International boundary Novo R Ikom Lake a A Bamenda Bamendjing h State boundary C.A.R. Bight of Benin Sapele Onits CROSS IMO ABIA RIVER Foumban Highway Warri DELTA Owerri Umuahia Bafoussam Yoko Main road CAMEROON Railroad Aba Nikongsamba a RIVERS Calabar nag N Uyo Sa0 50 100 150 200 km Gulf of Guinea i Yenagoa g Port AKWA Kumba e Oron The boundaries and names shown and the designations r BAYELSA Harcourt IBOM 0 50 100 mi D used on this map do not imply official endorsement or e acceptance by the United Nations. l t a Bight of Biafra Buea Douala Map No. 4228 Rev. 1 UNITED NATIONS Department of Field Support August 2014 Cartographic Section RESEARCH PAPER 15/02 Summary Nigeria – Africa’s most populous country by far, with a population of 177 million people and now its biggest economy – provokes wildly divergent assessments of its prospects. This paper explores that stark disjuncture as the country gears up for crucial presidential, legislative and state-level elections in February 2015. In these elections, incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan, representing the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), will again face the man he defeated in 2011, Muhammadu Buhari, representing the All Progressives Congress (APC). 2011 presidential election: north-south alternation breaks down Until the 2011 elections, the PDP, which has won all the presidential and National Assembly elections held since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999, operated an informal ‘zoning’ arrangement, under which the presidency would alternate every two terms between southern and northern representatives of the party.