ANNUAL REPORT 2019 Center for International Peace Operations © CSDP EEAS, entnommen EUMM-Flickr 2019 AnnuAl RepoRt Contents The Work of ZIF in Context --------------------------------------------------------------------3 Peace Operations in Numbers �������������������������������������������������������������� 6 ZIF in Numbers ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7 ZIF Seconded Staff 2019 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 Election Observation 2019 ������������������������������������������������������������������ 9 1. Priorities ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10 2. Publications and Analyses --------------------------------------------------------------14 3. Training und Coaching ------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 4. Events ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19 5. Third Party Inputs -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 6. Opportunities, Risks and Forecast �������������������������������������������������24 7. Funding ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------28 8. Third Party-Funded Projects --------------------------------------------------------- 30 Appendix ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 2 2019 AnnuAl RepoRt The Work of ZIF in Context The upheaval in the international order, reflected in the crisis for institutions and part- nerships, maintained its momentum in 2019. Rivalries between major powers, growing nationalism, the termination of international agreements – e.g. the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran and from the Paris Climate Agree- ment – left the world in a permanent state of crisis in 2019. The consequences for our work were felt above all in the growing “crisis of multilateralism” and its various forms and facets. Peace operations first and foremost constitute “multilateralism in action” and depend on broad political support and consensus. The debates in the Security Coun- cil reflect the increasing difficulty of building such a consensus. Nevertheless, contra- ry trends and the emergence of new responses and alliances provide encouragement. After its appointment, for example, the European Commission Crisis of Multilateralism responded to the current competition between the major powers by describing itself as a “geopolitical commission” that is com- mitted to a rule-based and multilateral order. The German Foreign Minister launched the “Alliance for Multilateralism”, which has enjoyed enormous approval and growth. In our work, we have seen that the need for expertise in peace operations remains high and is rising. In addition to an increased number of secondments, this is also reflected in the high demand for analyses and information, advice and capacity development. At the same time, the limits of multilateral action have become apparent in many places – probably nowhere more tragically than in the ongoing wars and humanitarian disasters in Syria and Yemen. The average duration of conflicts is increasing, due in part to various protracted or so- called “frozen” conflicts. Afghanistan remains the world’s deadliest conflict for children, while the war in Yemen has now cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The situation in Syria worsened again at the end of 2019, this time in and around the province of Idlib; almost half a million Syrians were forced to flee towards the Turkish border. The need for peace operations remains correspondingly high – not least due to the lack of other instruments enjoying an international consensus. At the same time, the situation in some of our countries of deployment has improved. In Conflicts Sudan, the United Nations (UN) was able to begin preparations for the ter- mination of its peacekeeping mission in Darfur. And despite some setbacks, the peace agreement in Colombia likewise continues to be observed by both parties to the conflict. There is no doubt that in both cases – and with many other peace processes – interna- tional support and the presence of multilateral actors on the ground are of huge impor- tance for enabling sustainable conflict resolution and reconstruction. 3 2019 AnnuAl RepoRt | the WoRk of ZIf In Context Two phenomena dominated international politics last year. On the one hand, 2019 was the year of global protest. Social move- ments mobilized on all continents against perceived injustices, forcing several governments – democratically legitimized or not – to resign from office. Among the many examples are Lebanon, Iraq and Chile, as well as Algeria, Sudan and Nicaragua. Depending on Worldwide Protests their respective outcome, the pro- tests can provide an opportunity for conflict transformation and peace operations. This can be seen in e.g. Sudan, where the fall of Omar al-Bashir has been followed by the opening up of political opportunities that deserve international support. At the same time, the protests in some places affected peace opera- tions through an increase in violence and the restriction of civil society space, as seen in e.g. Iraq. The second issue to increasingly dominate the international stage in 2019 was man-made climate change. Fires in the Am- azon rainforest and Cyclone Idai, which made more than two million people in southern Africa dependent on emergency aid, brought the issue onto the agenda of international organiza- tions. Fridays for Future, a worldwide movement of young people who see global climate developments as an existential threat to their future, added to the importance of climate change featuring in the international debate. In Climate Change this context peace operations face significant chal- lenges; they will increasingly be confronted with the consequences of climate change, which multiplies existing risks and calls for innovative ideas. Extreme rainfall, persistent drought and heat waves are already increasing in many of the host nations. This requires special expertise on the part of the personnel who develop and implement concrete measures on the ground. Adapting to these conditions will be of increasing significance for peace operations’ mandates. 4 2019 AnnuAl RepoRt | the WoRk of ZIf In Context The UN is the most important actor in the field, with currently around 95,000 interna- tional staff in 27 peace operations. Its peace operations vary in terms of mandates and personnel numbers: The smallest and most recent UN peace operation, in Yemen, has just ten international staff members, while in the Democratic Republic of the Congo there are almost 18,000 soldiers, civilian experts and police officers working for the UN mission. A major challenge for UN peace operations by the end of the year was the financing of the UN as a whole. At the end of 2019, 1.7 billion of UN the total budget of 6.5 billion US dollars were not covered; one third of member states had only partially paid their annual contributions or not at all. Transition was also a topic of particular importance for the UN in 2019. In operational terms, the focus here was primarily on Haiti and Darfur; in conceptual terms, considerations on planning and implementing sustainable transitions played an outstanding role. The EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) contin- ues to face diverging views among member states on the key objectives of the CSDP. Progress can, however, be seen in the developments of the past year. The 2019 European Parliament elections did not lead to the feared ungovernability of the EU Union; instead they produced a Commission with Ursula von der Leyen as its president that is committed to both dealing with Brexit as well as its consequences and with crises and conflicts in the European neighborhood. Germany will hold the Presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2020, and has the opportunity to assign more funds for security and foreign affairs to the budget for the years 2021 to 2027. At the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), another key international partner of ZIF, the conflict in Ukraine remained high on the list of priorities in 2019. Its Spe- cial Monitoring Mission (SMM) alone employed over 880 inter- national experts – about 40 of them from Germany, seconded by ZIF. The formation of the new government has also brought about a number of changes in Kiev – an oppor- tunity for the missions on the ground to actively assist OSCE and help shape a peaceful and political transformation of the conflict. At the same time, there have also been promising polit- ical openings in other OSCE participating states such as Uzbek- istan and Armenia. 5 2019 AnnuAl RepoRt Peace Operations in Numbers German Contribution 6.1% 10.9% 31 of the UN peacekeeping budget (2019) of the OSCE budget (2019) Countries to which German civilian personnel were seconded (as of 2019) Police contribution: Civilian contribution in peace operations: Military contribution: 60 220 2,550 (February 2020) (December 2019) (March 2020) Global Peace Index 1.8 Billion people Improvement for the first time living in fragile or conflict-affected in five years by countries: 23.4 % 0.09% (June 2019) 129,000 Conflict deaths in 2019 Internally Displaced Persons and Refugees 70.8 1 in 110 Million displaced persons People worldwide are asylum seekers, internally (June 2019) displaced or refugees (June 2019) 57% Syria: Afghanistan: