5 March 2020 5 March 2020 ISSN: 2560 -1628 ISSN: 2560-1628 17 March 2020 20 20 No. 4 ISSN: 20256020- 1628No. 4 WORKINGWORKING PAPER PAPER 2020 No. 5 WORKING PAPER Report SeriesReport on SeriesChinese on and Chinese European and European Actions Actions Project Manager:Project Manager:WU Baiyi WU Baiyi In FightingIn againstFighting Coronavirus against Coronavirus Disease (COVID Disease- 19)(COVID -19) Project Coordinator: Project Coordinator: CHEN Xin CHEN Xin International Actions against the COVID-19 Pandemic and Chinese Response Fighting against the Novel Coronavirus Disease: China and Fighting against theZhang Novel Wenhong Coronavirus & Ruan Qiaoling Disease: China and Europe Could Share Experience Europe Could Share Experience He Zhigao He Zhigao Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Wu Baiyi Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. SzerkesztésértKiadó: felelős Kína személy:-KKE Intézet Chen NonprofitXin Kft. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadásért felelős személy: Wu Baiyi Szerkesztésért felelős személy: office@chinaChen Xin -cee.eu china-cee.eu Kiadásért felelős személy: Wu Baiyi 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 [email protected] Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. china-cee.eu +36 1 5858 690 [email protected] china-cee.eu International Actions against the COVID-19 Pandemic and Chinese Response Zhang Wenhong & Ruan Qiaoling1 This week has witnessed a big mess in the international efforts to fight against the COVID- 19 pandemic since its outbreak. On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Europe is witnessing an explosive tendency of the outbreak and becomes the epicentre of the pandemic. - U.S. The confirmed COVID-19 cases are increasing in the United States. The House of Representatives questioned Centers for Disease Control (CDC) whether its containment measures at the early stage were timely. Meanwhile, Trump’s pandemic containment policy becomes the focus of public opinion; - U.K. The British Prime Minister announced abandonment of active anti-pandemic, and introduced “herd immunity” strategy for the first time; 1 Zhang Wenhong and Ruan Qiaoling are from Shanghai Huashan Hospital. Zhang Wenhong is the director of Huashan Hospital’s department of infectious disease and of the Shanghai panel overseeing the treatment of COVID-19. The original Chinese version of this article was published on WeChat Official Account named Huashan Infection. The China-CEE Institute is authorized to publish the English version. 1 - Germany German Chancellor Merkel said that eventually up to 60% of the German population will likely contract the Coronavirus, but Germany has taken active steps for the battle of the ‘plague’ and its attendant panic; - France France does not have much determination and vacillates between the UK’s policy and German one; “the situation is neither too good nor too bad” (the French national anti-pandemic experts said to the author); - Italy Italy remains on the verge of losing control. China and other countries began to aid Italy, fulfilling the obligations commonly shared by the international community; - Overseas Chinese in Europe and the US: hesitating between going back to China to avoid the plague for the time being or staying to fight the pandemic locally. We are really fortunate that we have achieved a periodical victory in fighting against the pandemic by taking decisive measures of nationwide lockdown of cities and launching high-level emergency response. More than one month has passed, the process of countries in their efforts to fight the pandemic is like the Olympic Marathon, where no much difference can be noticed when they started, but the difference is widened gradually at a later time. Europe and America Fighting against the COVID-19 Countries’ statements on Coronavirus differ from one another, but the logic behind European and American anti-pandemic efforts is the same. U.S. President Trump declares national emergency over Coronavirus (Photo from White House official website) 2 U.S. President Trump declares national emergency over COVID-19. - Hospitals have been asked to activate their emergency plans - The Ministry of Health was empowered urgently, including: Ø Eliminate licensing requirements for some health-care device providers Ø Increase test points Ø Expand coverage of test reagents - The private sector (companies) has been mobilized to fight the pandemic, including: Ø Google helps develop website for detection and monitoring Ø Wal-Mart keeps opening to ensure the daily needs of the people - It will take several days to produce test results now, - The waiting time for the test results will be shortened within 24 hours in the near future. Comments: Except for lockdown of the cities and community control, all other measures in the United States are consistent with China. That is, the U.S. tries to maximize openness of its medical resources. The U.K. The U.K. is stepping into the second stage of its efforts to fight the pandemic: ‘delay phase’. On 12 March, the U.K. published its anti-pandemic plan. Prime Minister Boris Johnson officially announced at a press conference that the country stepped into the second stage of its efforts to fight the pandemic. After Boris’s speech on the press conference, an article was published and highlighted the essential part of the U.K.’s pandemic prevention strategy. Briefly speaking, the strategy is “not to strictly quarantine, but to allow the Coronavirus slowly spread, hoping that the majority population, after the occult infection, will be symptom-free or mildly infected. In this way, people will obtain universal immunity, which will bring the pandemic under control”. In other word, the U.K. tries to control the Coronavirus through herd immunity. Italy The Italian case becomes a model of failure at the early stage of prevention and control. Currently, the total number of confirmed cases exceeds 20,000, and there is an increase of 3,497 new cases in one day. The case fatality rate has reached 6.8%. Medical resources are already running low and the state has announced the selective admission of patients. 3 Germany German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “When people have no immunity to the virus, which is already there, and have no option for vaccine or specific medicine, then the population is facing a relatively high possibility of being infected (if the situation continues). Experts expect that up to 60 to 70% of the population will be infected eventually. So that’s why the R&D work of specific medicines and vaccines is so intense.” In fact, Germany is the country who prepares best in Europe in terms of medical resource reserves. Its medical supplies are currently sufficient to cope with new severe cases. Comments: It seems that countries have different statements on the Coronavirus, but the logic behind the European and American efforts to fight the pandemic is the same, that is, maximally mobilizing medical resources that can be mobilized and facing the possible coming of a hyper- infectious disease. If countries’ medical resources can be effectively organized, they can face the challenge. In Germany, the current fatality rate is 0.2%. Only as a last resort, it will not order massive shutdown (like some regions in Italy and Wuhan in China). Because once the social activities stop, countries, without leadership of a strong government, will immediately face a greater difficulty, and eventually the number of deaths will far exceed the death toll caused by the disease itself. China’s research at the early stage has made us better understand the disease, and the case fatality rate is acceptable. If there is no medical run, the disease can be managed. But the premise is that medical resources will not run low. The Contribution of Chinese Experience to the World To date, it seems that China has achieved best results, because there are almost no new local cases (Wuhan will also bring the outbreak under full control soon). The academic teams of Professor Zhong Nanshan, Professor Wang Chen and Professor Cao Bin, and Professor Zhang Wenhong have exchanged with the international community several times and introduced China’s experience in fighting the Coronavirus outbreak. During the dialogue between Chinese and American doctors two days ago, the author introduced some strategies of prevention and control adopted in Shanghai, which is city with a population of 30 million. The joint prevention and control measures are impossible to be mimicked by other countries, but the quick response of hospitals, the rapid screening and detection methods of suspected patients, the rapid implementation of quarantine, and shorting the time for diagnosis and hospitalization are the key strategies to reduce the possibility of outbreak in hospitals and communities. 4 In fact, the United States has accelerated the training of various community hospitals and also improved the diagnostic capabilities of hospitals (included the supply of reagents and cost coverage). Germany has a more comprehensive strategy. Beijing and Shanghai are megacities, and China’s experience for this type of cities is to restrict citizens’ movements, to strictly preventing imported cases, to increase investment in medical resources, to screen suspected patients in time and to avoid medical runs. If medical resources are properly allocated, the fatality rate of the disease can be controlled around 1-2%, which is an acceptable fatality rate range. The UK and Germany: One Strategy and Two Versions Map of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe as of 12 March 2020 (from Wikipedia) While British Prime Minister Boris hopes to adopt “Herb Immunity” Strategy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that up to 60% to 70% of population may be eventually infected. In fact, these statements have caused panic among the public, not least among the overseas Chinese. If it’s true that so many people are infected, they will face a scarcity of medical resources.