Building for Climate Change Resilience CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT | JULY 8-13, 2007 Building Climate Change Resilience in Urban Areas and Among Urban Populations in Low- and Middle- Income Nations DAVID SATTERTHWAITE, SALEEMUL HUQ, MARK PELLING, HANNAH REID AND PATRICIA ROMERO-LANKAO This draft was prepared for the Rockefeller most of the urban population live in cities or Foundation. The text draws heavily on a series smaller urban centres ill-equipped for of background papers that are acknowledged in adaptation – with weak and ineffective local the references; this paper and the accompanying governments and with very inadequate provision Annex incorporates sections of text drawn for the infrastructure and services needed to directly from these papers and so parts of this reduce climate-change-related risks and draft are by Debra Roberts (case study on vulnerabilities. A key part of adaptation is Durban’s adaptation strategy), Jorgelina Hardoy adapting infrastructure and buildings, but much and Gustavo Pandiella (background paper on of the urban population in Africa, Asia and Latin Argentina), Karina Martínez, E. Claro and America have no infrastructure to adapt – no all- Hernando Blanco (background paper on Chile), weather roads, piped water supplies or drains – Aromar Revi (background paper on India), and live in poor quality housing in floodplains or Patricia Romero-Lankao (background paper on on slopes at risk of landslides. Most international Latin America), Cynthia B. Awuor, Victor A. agencies have long refused to support urban Orindi and Andrew Adwerah (background paper programmes, especially those that address these on Mombasa) and Mozaharul Alam (background problems. Section IV discusses innovations by paper on Bangladesh/Dhaka). However, the full urban governments and community organizations text of this report has not yet been reviewed by and in financial systems that address such all these authors. This draft was also able to draw problems, including the relevance of recent on preliminary chapters on disasters and disaster- innovations in disaster risk reduction for preparedness for a new Global Report on Human adaptation. But it also notes how few city and Settlements that is being prepared by the UN national governments are taking any action on Human Settlements Programme and the authors adaptation. Section V discusses how local are grateful to this. The authors are also grateful innovation in adaptation can be encouraged and to Alex de Sherbinin and Nicole Volavka-Close supported on a national scale and the funding for comments and suggestions on an earlier draft. needed to support this. Section VI considers the mechanisms for financing this and the larger To reduce the length of this paper, the details ethical challenges that achieving adaptation given in many of the examples were cut – but raises – especially the fact that most climate- these are included in the Annex. change-related urban (and rural) risks are in low- income nations with the least adaptive capacity, Abstract including many that have contributed very little This paper discusses the possibilities for to greenhouse gas emissions. adaptation to climate change in urban areas in low- and middle-income nations. These contain The Big Issues: A Summary a third of the world’s population and a large The last fifty years have brought a 600% increase proportion of the people and economic activities in the urban population in low- and middle- most at risk from sea-level rise and from the heat income nations and a much increased waves, storms and floods whose frequency and/or concentration of people and economic activities intensity climate change is likely to increase. in low-lying coastal zones or other areas at risk Section I outlines both the potentials for from flooding and extreme weather events. Low- adaptation and the constraints, with Section II and middle-income nations now have most of discussing the scale of urban change. Section III the world’s urban population and most of its considers climate change’s direct and indirect largest cities. Even Africa, long-considered a impacts on urban areas and discusses which rural continent, has two-fifths of its population in nations, cities and population groups are urban areas – and a larger urban population than particularly at risk. This highlights how North America. The last fifty years have also prosperous, well-governed cities can generally brought a very large increase in the number of adapt, at least for the next few decades, assuming urban dwellers living in poverty, lacking global efforts at mitigation successfully halt and provision for the basic infrastructure and services then reverse global greenhouse gas emissions. But that should protect them from environmental 1 Building for Climate Change Resilience CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT | JULY 8-13, 2007 health hazards and disasters – and which should usually easily adapted to. You cannot fund a pro- form the basis for protection from most climate- poor adaptation strategy if the city government change related impacts. Around a billion urban refuses to work with the poor, or sees their dwellers live in poor quality, overcrowded homes, neighbourhoods and enterprises as ‘the housing in ‘slums’/informal settlements that lack problem’. adequate provision for piped water and most other forms of infrastructure; a high proportion The vulnerability of these low-income urban are on sites at high risk from flooding or dwellers to climate change is often ascribed to landslides. their poverty – but it is far more the result of local government failures or limitations, which in For most prosperous and well-governed cities, turn are linked to the failure of national adaptation to the likely risks from climate change governments and international agencies to for the next few decades does not appear support urban policies and governance systems problematic. This centres on adapting buildings that ensure needed infrastructure is in place, and and infrastructure to these increased risks and preparedness for extreme weather and, where good disaster preparedness. But you cannot adapt needed, sea level rise. Most international infrastructure that is not there. Hundreds of agencies have chosen to avoid investing in urban millions of urban dwellers have no all-weather areas. There are also larger issues related to the roads, no piped water supplies, no drains, and no self-interest of the richest, most powerful nations electricity supplies and live in poor-quality that have prevented or constrained democratic homes on illegally occupied or subdivided land, processes in many low- and middle-income which inhibits any investment in more resilient nations, but these are beyond the scope of this buildings. A high proportion are tenants with paper. very limited capacities to pay rent – and landlords with no incentive to invest in better It is unrealistic to discuss building cities for quality buildings. Low-income urban dwellers climate change resilience without considering are also very constrained in any capacity to move this large deficit in basic infrastructure and the to safer sites, because of their need to be close to reasons why these are not acted on by most city income-earning opportunities and the lack of or municipal governments. Thus, this paper alternative (safer) sites. gives considerable attention to understanding the urban contexts where adaptation has to take This means that hundreds of millions of urban place and what these imply for the possibilities of dwellers in low- and middle-income nations are successful adaptation. at risk from the direct and indirect impacts of The linkages between this topic and the other climate change. Most of this risk is associated topics are obvious. Actually, the discussions on with development failures, especially the health and on shelter, water and sanitation are incapacity of local governments to ensure on adaptation too; so is a large part of the provision for infrastructure and for disaster-risk discussion on urban planning. Better quality reduction and disaster-preparedness. Or they housing and provision for water and sanitation refuse to do so in ‘illegal settlements’, even when (which has to include provision for drainage) is a third or more of the population (and one key part of adaptation; achieving this will workforce) live in these. Much of the urban also require more competent, accountable urban population and most urban governments have a governments. Addressing health issues means not very low adaptive capacity to all environmental only better health care (which should include hazards, including low adaptive capacity for emergency-response capacity for extreme weather climate variability and climate change. This events) but also reducing environmental health makes large sections of the urban population very risks, thus reducing many of the risks that climate vulnerable to any increase in the frequency or change is likely to bring and the vulnerability of intensity of storms or increased risk of disease or low-income populations to these. To do this constraints on water supplies or food price rises – requires more competent and accountable urban which in wealthier, better governed cities are governments. A large part of urban planning 2 Building for Climate Change Resilience CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT | JULY 8-13, 2007 should be focused on providing lower-income conflicts and no economic or political stability. groups with legal alternatives to informal Building