State of Climate Change and Adaptation Knowledge for the Eeyou Istchee James Bay Territory Final Report November 2017 State of Climate Change and Adaptation Knowledge for the Eeyou Istchee James Bay Territory Final Report November 2017 PROJECT TEAM: Rebecca Hennigs, Ouranos Stéphanie Bleau, Ouranos Caroline Larrivée, Ouranos REVISION: Ross Brown, Ouranos Hélène Côté, Ouranos Robert Siron, Ouranos Hugo Asselin, UQAT Marie-Jeanne Royer, UdeM Elizabeth Robinson, CBHSSJB Nicole Fenton, UQAT Rick Cucurian, CTA Sarah Pashagumskum, ACI Robin McGinley, COTA Report presented to: Project number: 520018 Suggested citation: Hennigs, R. and Bleau, S. (2017). State of Climate Change and Adaptation Knowledge for the Eeyou Istchee James Bay Territory. Report presented to the James Bay Advisory Committee on the Environment, Montréal, Ouranos, 53 p. + appendices ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This document was coordinated by Ouranos with support from the James Bay Advisory Committee on the Environment (JBACE) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The report results from fruitful exchanges with several regional and local representatives and researchers. The authors would like to thank the members of the JBACE for their advice and for facilitating communications with other Cree organizations (e.g. Cree Nation Government) and different stakeholders. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to Ross Brown and Hélène Côté, from Ouranos’ Climate Simulations and Analysis and Climate Scenarios and Services teams, who contributed to the climate section and made sure that recent knowledge relating to climate and hydrological parameters for Eeyou Istchee James Bay was included in this document. Thanks are also extended to all collaborators who have provided input and support over the course of this project by means of interviews or personal communications answering our questions to the best of their knowledge. i SUMMARY This report reviews the current state of climate change and adaptation research for the Cree Nation territory (2007 – 2017). Based on a substantial array of evidence, climate change worldwide is occurring faster in subarctic and arctic bioclimatic regions, and is already affecting a broad range of human and natural systems. Largely caused by human activities, it poses significant risks for indigenous populations living in higher latitudes. With anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at a record high, global average temperature has warmed by 0.85°C since the end of the 19th century. These changes are modifying other key parameters, such as sea ice extent and duration, precipitation patterns, river discharge, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Due to their close ties with the land, indigenous peoples are particularly vulnerable to climate change because it modifies land access, occupation and use, thereby exacerbating the effects of other stressors such as industrial development and socio-economic constraints. Although much progress has been made in terms of climate change research in Quebec, past studies have either focussed on southern Quebec or Nunavik leaving subarctic Quebec seriously data-deficient in terms of instrumental records or long-term scientific observations. However, available studies and an abundance of local observations by the Cree show rapid changes of the environment and climate conditions. Ouranos was mandated by the James Bay Advisory Committee on the Environment (JBACE) to review the scientific and gray literature, and interview several key stakeholders in order to better identify climate impacts and adaptation initiatives in Eeyou Istchee James Bay, situated in subarctic1 Quebec. The report has three main objectives: 1) Summing up climate change information for Eeyou Istchee James Bay and identifying knowledge gaps; 2) Indicating potential research needs and recommendations; and 3) Supporting multi-level governance in decision-making processes on climate change adaptation. Annual mean air temperature in the region has warmed by 1.5°C in the last 35 years with a sharp winter warming of 2-3°C. Different models project an increase in rainfall while snow cover will decrease thawing earlier. The Cree have noticed an increase in the frequency of lightning storms and flooding, weather has become less predictable and seasons are shifting. In James Bay, sea surface temperature is rising, sea ice is retreating rapidly, and climate models project a higher river discharge in James Bay potentially modifying water properties and dynamics in the Bay. These physical changes lead to impacts on the natural and built environment, and entail a plethora of socio-economic and cultural repercussions. At the ecosystem level, local observers and scientific research report more southern species on the territory, the modification of phenological cycles, an increase in natural disturbances such as pests and invasive species and more frequent forest fires, as well as changes in the quality and availability of wildlife and plants used in traditional food systems. From a health perspective, changes in land access, accidents on the ice due to hazardous ice conditions, alteration of subsistence activities, traditional knowledge transfer, as well as the increase in diseases like diabetes and obesity, linked to changes in diet and food security, represent significant health risks and threaten Cree culture, identity and well-being. In terms of infrastructure and industry, more frequently observed climate hazards can challenge current asset design, construction, operation and maintenance leading to additional risks and costs for communities. The tourism sector, especially the cultural economy and outdoor tourism, is also vulnerable to climate change. While the majority of climate change-induced effects in Eeyou Istchee James Bay appear to be negative, climate change may also be beneficial for some sectors if activities are adapted proactively. So far, adaptation to climate change in Eeyou Istchee James Bay has been mainly characterized by reactive, individual strategies, such as for adapting subsistence practices, or integrating climate change on a voluntary 1 The subarctic climate is located between 50° to 70°N and characterized by a long, very cold period, and a short warm period. Eeyou Istchee James Bay is mainly located in this climate zone (Dfc, Köppen climate classification), except for the coastal area from the southern tip of James Bay up to Chisasibi which is dominated by a humid continental climate (Dfb). ii basis in economic development projects. Efforts are necessary to mainstream adaptation, integrate climate change into other strategic documents, raise awareness and recognition, and then start implementing adaptation measures for the benefit of Cree society in a flexible approach that can be adjusted over time. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................................... I SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ II TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................ IV LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... VI LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... VI LIST OF ABREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................. VII INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................... 3 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER I – SOCIOCULTURAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CREE SOCIETY .................... 4 1.1 Culture, identity and traditional activities .................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Health: physical, mental and spiritual dimensions ..................................................................................... 5 1.3 Land access ................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.4 Subsistence harvesting and food security .................................................................................................. 8 CHAPTER II – IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE REGIONAL CLIMATE OF EEYOU ISTCHEE JAMES BAY ...................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Temperature .............................................................................................................................................11 2.2 Seasons, weather patterns and extreme events ......................................................................................12 2.3 Precipitation (rain and snow) ...................................................................................................................13 2.4 Ice regimes (sea and lake ice) ...................................................................................................................14 2.5 Water