CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 Trends in the Military Balance and Arms Sales in the Southern Gulf States After the Gulf War: 1990- 1993 Anthony H. Cordesman CSIS Middle East Dynamic Net Assessment ME Bal 7 - Southern Gulf States Chapter 01/26/98 Page 2 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 5 MILITARY FORCES, STRATEGIC NEEDS, AND VULNERABILITIES ....................................................... 5 Table VII-1................................................................................................................................................ 8 The Size and Military Capabilities of the Southern Gulf States in 1993 ..................................................... 8 THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL AND EFFORTS AT COLLECTIVE SECURITY........... 9 SAUDI ARABIA .................................................................................................................................. 13 SAUDI STRENGTHS AND EXTERNAL VULNERABILITIES .................................................................... 16 Table 7-? ................................................................................................................................................. 17 The Military Balance Affecting Saudi Arabia .......................................................................................... 17 INTERNAL CHANGE AND INTERNAL SECURITY.................................................................................. 20 SAUDI DEFENSE EXPENDITURES......................................................................................................... 24 SAUDI ARMS IMPORTS ......................................................................................................................... 28 SAUDI MILITARY MANPOWER............................................................................................................. 31 THE SAUDI ARMY................................................................................................................................. 34 Table VII-2.............................................................................................................................................. 36 Possible Saudi Force Expansion Plans for the Year 2000 ......................................................................... 36 THE SAUDI NATIONAL GUARD............................................................................................................ 47 THE SAUDI NAVY ................................................................................................................................. 51 THE SAUDI AIR FORCE......................................................................................................................... 55 SAUDI AIR FORCE LESSONS FROM THE GULF WAR ........................................................................... 67 THE SAUDI AIR DEFENSE FORCES....................................................................................................... 70 SAUDI PARAMILITARY FORCES........................................................................................................... 74 SAUDI MISSILE CAPABILITIES AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION .......................................... 75 STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ARMS CONTROL.................................................................................... 78 KUWAIT .............................................................................................................................................. 82 KUWAIT'S MILITARY VULNERABILITY............................................................................................... 90 KUWAITI DEFENSE SPENDING AND ARMS IMPORTS BEFORE THE GULF WAR................................. 91 KUWAIT'S MILITARY FORCES BEFORE THE GULF WAR .................................................................... 92 KUWAIT'S MILITARY FORCES DURING THE GULF WAR .................................................................... 98 KUWAIT'S DEFENSE DEBATES FOLLOWING THE GULF WAR............................................................100 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. 2 ME Bal 7 - Southern Gulf States Chapter 01/26/98 Page 3 KUWAIT'S MILITARY FORCES AFTER THE GULF WAR......................................................................104 STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ARMS CONTROL...................................................................................108 BAHRAIN............................................................................................................................................111 BAHRAIN'S MILITARY MANPOWER, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, AND ARMS IMPORTS..................114 THE BAHRAINI ARMY .........................................................................................................................115 THE BAHRAINI NAVY..........................................................................................................................117 THE BAHRAINI AIR FORCE .................................................................................................................118 BAHRAIN'S INTERNAL SECURITY FORCES .........................................................................................119 STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ARMS CONTROL...................................................................................120 QATAR................................................................................................................................................122 QATARI MILITARY MANPOWER, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, AND ARMS TRANSFERS...................124 THE QATARI ARMY .............................................................................................................................126 THE QATARI NAVY .............................................................................................................................128 THE QATARI AIR FORCE .....................................................................................................................128 QATARI PARAMILITARY FORCES .......................................................................................................129 STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ARMS CONTROL...................................................................................130 UAE ....................................................................................................................................................132 THE UNCERTAIN UNION OF ARAB EMIRATES ...................................................................................134 UAE MILITARY SPENDING AND ARMS IMPORTS ..............................................................................138 UAE MILITARY MANPOWER ..............................................................................................................139 THE UAE'S MILITARY FORCES ...........................................................................................................140 THE UAE ARMY ..................................................................................................................................141 THE UAE AIR FORCE...........................................................................................................................144 THE UAE NAVY...................................................................................................................................147 PARAMILITARY AND SECURITY FORCES ...........................................................................................148 STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ARMS CONTROL...................................................................................148 OMAN ................................................................................................................................................150 THE DEVELOPMENT OF OMAN'S MILITARY FORCES.........................................................................152 OMANI MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ARMS IMPORTS..................................................................155 OMANI MILITARY MANPOWER AND READINESS ..............................................................................157 THE OMANI ARMY ..............................................................................................................................159 THE OMANI NAVY...............................................................................................................................161 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. 3 ME Bal 7 - Southern Gulf States Chapter 01/26/98 Page 4 THE OMANI AIR FORCE.......................................................................................................................162 OMANI PARAMILITARY FORCES.........................................................................................................164 STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ARMS CONTROL...................................................................................164 THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES: THE PROBLEM MAY BE THE SOLUTION.......................165 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. 4 ME Bal 7 - Southern Gulf States Chapter 01/26/98 Page 5 Introduction 1 There are six southern Gulf states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Although these states differ in many ways, they all face a similar set of challenges in shaping their strategic position and