Vermont Freight Plan May 2012 Revised August 2013 (MAP-21 Compliance) Revised March 2015 (MAP-21 S.1116 Compliance) Revised June 2017 (FAST ACT Compliance) Vermont Freight Plan Final Report prepared for Vermont Agency of Transportation prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Economic Development Research Group Fitzgerald and Halliday Parsons Brinkerhoff May 2012 Revised August 2013 (MAP-21 Compliance) Revised March 2015 (MAP-21 S.1116 Compliance) Revised June 2017 (FAST ACT Compliance) www.camsys.com Vermont Freight Plan Final Report prepared for Vermont Agency of Transportation prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 100 CambridgePark Drive, Suite 400 Cambridge, MA 02140 with Economic Development Research Group Fitzgerald and Halliday Parsons Brinkerhoff date May 2012 Revised August 2013 (MAP-21 Compliance) Revised March 2015 (MAP-21 S.1116 Compliance) Revised June 2017 (FAST ACT Compliance) Vermont Freight Plan Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1 Demographics and Economy ................................................................................ 1 Trade and Freight Demand ................................................................................... 2 Vermont’s Freight Transportation Network ....................................................... 4 Freight Needs and Deficiencies ............................................................................ 7 Freight Transportation Performance Measures .................................................. 9 Recommended Packages of Programs, Policies and Projects ......................... 11 1.0 Overview and Background ............................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Freight Planning Activities in Vermont ................................................... 1-2 1.3 Approach ..................................................................................................... 1-6 1.4 Organization of this Report ....................................................................... 1-9 2.0 Economic & Demographic Trends ................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Vermont Economy and Demographics ................................................... 2-1 2.2 Trends in Industry and Trade ................................................................. 2-10 2.3 Supply Chain and Logistics Trends .......................................................... 23 3.0 Statewide Freight Infrastructure ...................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Highway Network ...................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Rail System ................................................................................................ 3-15 3.3 Airports ...................................................................................................... 3-25 3.4 Water Transportation ............................................................................... 3-28 4.0 Freight Demand .................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Current Vermont Freight Flows ............................................................... 4-1 4.2 Network Usage ......................................................................................... 4-19 4.3 Future Freight Volumes ........................................................................... 4-30 5.0 Needs Assessment .............................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 How Well Does Vermont’s Freight Transportation System Meet Present and Future Needs? ....................................................................... 5-2 5.3 Identified Needs and Deficiencies ............................................................ 5-6 5.4 Vermont’s Freight Transportation System and Greenhouse Gas Emissions ................................................................................................... 5-19 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i Table of Contents, continued 5.5 Discussion .................................................................................................. 5-22 6.0 Performance Measures ....................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Freight Performance Measures Introduction .......................................... 6-2 6.2 Proposed Freight Performance Measures ............................................... 6-5 7.0 Policy, Program, and Project Packages and Recommendations ................. 7-1 7.1 Freight Policy Package ............................................................................... 7-3 7.2 Trade Corridors Package ........................................................................... 7-5 7.3 Highway Operations Package .................................................................. 7-9 7.4 Rail Development Package ...................................................................... 7-13 7.5 Air Freight Package .................................................................................. 7-17 7.6 Performance Measures Package ............................................................. 7-19 7.7 Programmed freight projects .................................................................. 7-21 7.8 Use of Section 167 Freight Formula Funds ........................................... 7-32 A. List of Outreach Activities and Committees................................................. A-1 Study Advisory Committee ............................................................................... A-1 Freight Focus Groups ......................................................................................... A-1 ii Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 8173.007 Vermont Freight Plan List of Tables Table ES.1 Existing Railroad Bridge Capacities (2005) ....................................... ES-7 Table ES.2 Proposed Vermont Freight Plan Performance Measures .............. ES-10 Table ES.3 Summary of Policy, Program and Project Packages .............................. ES-12 Table 2.1 Gross Domestic Product by County, 1980, 2009 and 2039 (millions of 2000 dollars) ............................................................................ 2-2 Table 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Major Industry, 1980, 2009 and 2039 (millions of 2000 dollars) ................................................................... 2-3 Table 2.3 Location Quotients for Vermont Freight-Generating Industries ...... 2-4 Table 2.4 Employment by Major Industry, 1980, 2009 and 2039 (thousands of jobs) ......................................................................................................... 2-6 Table 2.5 Employment by County, 1980, 2009 and 2039 (thousands of jobs) ...... 2-7 Table 2.6 Population, 1980, 2009 and 2039 (thousands of people) ......................... 2-8 Table 2.7 Gross Domestic Product by Commodity- and Goods Producing Industry, 1980, 2009,and 2039 (millions of 2000 dollars) ..................... 2-11 Table 2.8 Employment by Commodity-Producing Industry, 1980, 2009 and 2039 (thousands of jobs) .................................................................... 2-12 Table 2.9 Vermont Industries, Trading Partners and Freight Transportation ........................................................................................ 2-13 Table 2.10 Net Export-Related Activity and Employment in Vermont, 2007........................................................................................................... 2-14 Table 2.11 Vermont and Canada Trade by Commodity and Mode Share, 2007 (in tons) ............................................................................................ 2-15 Table 2.12 GDP Growth by Industry in Eastern Canada, 2009-2039 ................. 2-16 Table 2.13 Vermont Trading Partners By Value (in millions of 2007 dollars) ..... 2-17 Table 2.14 GDP Growth Rate Projections for Vermont’s U.S. Trading Partners by Commodity-Producing Industry and State, 2009 to 2039 (annual percent growth rate) ............................................................. 19 Table 2.15 Retail Sales by County, 1980, 2009 and 2039 (in millions of 2000 dollars) ......................................................................................................... 22 Table 2.16 Barriers for Freight Industries ................................................................. 24 Table 3.1 Mileage by Vermont Highway Classification (2009) ......................... 3-1 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii List of Tables, continued Table 3.2 Truck Parking Availability at Welcome Centers and Information Centers (2010) ..................................................................... 3-7 Table 3.3 Trucks as Percent of Overall Traffic Stream ....................................... 3-12 Table 3.4 Vermont Track Mileage by Railroad Class ......................................... 3-16 Table 3.5 Vermont Active Rail Lines .................................................................... 3-16 Table 3.6 Existing Railroad Bridge Capacities (2005) ........................................ 3-22 Table 3.7 Vermont’s Public Use Airports ............................................................ 3-27 Table 4.1 Freight