DISCLAIMER: This document does not meet current format guidelines Graduate School at the The University of Texas at Austin. of the It has been published for informational use only. The Dissertation Committee for Steven Thomas Brooke certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: The Politics of Islamist Social Service Provision in Egypt Committee: Jason Brownlee, Supervisor Zachary Elkins Xiaobo Lü Tarek Masoud Robert Moser The Politics of Islamist Social Service Provision in Egypt by Steven Thomas Brooke, B.A.; M.A.; M.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin August 2015 To Bob Acknowledgements Family members, mentors, colleagues, and friends have lent me their insight, encouragement, and support as I researched and wrote this dissertation. My parents Tom and Linda always nourished my curiosity, encouraged my interests, and pushed me to figure things out for myself. My mother in particular has been an inspiration as I attempted to shape the mounds of data I collected into both an argument and a story. My brother Danny and his wife Liz ensured that my research trips to Boston were as fun as they were worthwhile. It is difficult to render in words what my wife Melissa has contributed during this process. Her love, patience, good humor, and sympathy helped me navigate the ups-and-downs of dissertation writing, and her willingness to sacrifice so that I may pursue this project leaves me humbled. I hope that whatever praise or accolades this research garners reflects on her. Our beautiful daughter, Calla, was born as our time in Austin ended, but any regrets I have over leaving this great city are swamped by the excitement and happiness I feel about embarking on new adventures with them. At the University of Texas, Jason Brownlee was an ideal dissertation chair for his ability to balance timely and incisive criticism with encouragement and support. I imagine that as my academic career unfolds I will both consciously and unconsciously draw on the example he has set, and I will be all the better for it. Zachary Elkins offered a key suggestion for framing the project, and was convivial iv and accommodating throughout. Xiaobo Lü came aboard in the dissertation’s final stages, but in that short time made a number of interventions that will help me to refine the argument. Tarek Masoud’s enthusiasm has been constant, and being able to draw on his expertise about Egyptian politics as well as the craft of political science has improved this dissertation in innumerable ways. Rob Moser always kept his door open despite teaching demanding classes, administrating a sprawling department, and shepherding dozens of grad students through the program. UT’s Department of Government has been a wonderful place to spend the last six years thanks, in large part, to my fellow Ph.D. students. Josh Blank, Matt Buehler, Kim Guiler, Austin Hart, Henry “Hank" Pascoe, Andy Rottas, and Rachel Sternfeld all provided humor, willing feedback, and advice about topics both related to academia and not. A special thanks to Daniel McCormack, who constantly challenged me to strengthen my arguments and improve my prose during our weekly writing/drinking sessions. It is hard to repay the debts incurred while researching and writing a dis- sertation, and this is doubly true for the time I spent in Egypt. Clement Henry generously provided an affiliation at the American University in Cairo, while Bernard Rougier provided an affiliation with the Centre d’Études et de Documen- tation Économiques, Juridiques et Sociales (CEDEJ). Bernard and his colleague Halla Bayoumi were incredibly generous with their time and expertise both during my v fieldwork in Cairo and afterwards. Supplementing (and even surpassing) this formal infrastructure were my Egyp- tian friends: Manu Abdo, Esraa Hanafy, Abdellatif El-Husseiny (JC), and Alaa Nabil. Alaa in particular was a constant source of good cheer and insight into matters both large and small. This project is so much better thanks to his involve- ment. A number of other people helped along the way, including Bethany Albertson, Indre Baumann, Nathan Brown, Cole Bucy, Melani Cammett, Mary Casey, Janine Clark, Dale Correa, Dan Corstange, Emma Deputy, Shadi Hamid, Ian Hartshorn, Kamal El-Helbawy, Wendy Hunter, Cortni Kerr, Patrick Kingsley, Gabe Koehler- Derrick, Vickie Langohr, Patrick McDonald, Jess Martin, Quinn Meacham, Ziad Munson, Annette Park, Skye Perryman, Jeanette Rottas, Hesham Sallam, Paul Saunders, Amr El-Shora, Josh Stacher, Stuart Tendler, Tariq Thachil, Carrie Wick- ham, and Radamis Zaky. A special thanks to all those I interviewed, both in Egypt and elsewhere. A number of institutions provided research and financial support. Multiple Foreign Language and Area Studies (FLAS) fellowships allowed me to improve my Arabic under the excellent teachers in the University of Texas’ Department of Middle East Studies. A U.S. Institute of Peace Jennings-Randolph dissertation fellowship supported my fieldwork in Egypt and embedded me in a diverse and talented network of scholars and fellow Ph.D. students. A TRE grant from the vi Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) supported a research trip to Cairo that resulted in an early publication. The Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point generously funded a proposal that even- tually matured into the survey experiment. The Smith Richardson Foundation’s World Politics and Statecraft fellowship provided financial assistance as I wrote up an early draft of the dissertation. The University of Texas provided funding as this project concluded, first through the College of Liberal Arts’ Named Con- tinuing Fellowship and then the Department of Government’s MacDonald-Long Fellowship. Bennu Coffee in East Austin provided a wonderfully conducive envi- ronment for writing this dissertation. I appreciate the feedback from participants and discussants at conferences, workshops, and talks sponsored by the American Political Science Association, the Middle East Studies Association, the Midwest Political Science Association, the International Security Association, the University of Texas- Austin Experi- mental Workshop, the University of Texas- Austin Comparative Workshop, the Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research, and the Departments of Po- litical Science at Barnard College, the University of Louisville, and the University of Nevada- Reno I am also grateful to Ellen Lust at Yale University’s Project on Governance and Local Development (GLD) and Marc Lynch at POMEPS for invit- ing me to present at their workshops. Marc has, in particular, been a consistent supporter of my research and I thank him for it. vii I was unaware how formative the experience would be when, upon graduating college, I took a job as Bob Leiken’s research assistant. Not only did he teach me the importance of empirical investigation, the benefits of writing well, and the need to follow evidence where it leads, his generosity and willingness to make me a partner in his research gave me the confidence to embark on this journey. I dedicate this to him. Steven Brooke Austin, Texas viii The Politics of Islamist Social Service Provision in Egypt by Steven Thomas Brooke, Ph.D. The University of Texas at Austin, 2015 Supervisor: Jason Brownlee Since its re-emergence under Anwar El-Sadat in the 1970s, the Muslim Broth- erhood has provided millions of Egyptians with a valuable array of social ser- vices, from discounted food, to education, to medical care. Yet this distribution is uneven- some areas host extensive social service networks, while others are passed over or receive only minimal attention. This project examines the spatial variation in the Muslim Brotherhood’s social service network through three in- terlocking questions: Under what conditions does the Brotherhood extend social service provision? What are the effects of this social service provision on patterns of sociopolitical mobilization? And what is the causal pathway through which social service provision influences a recipient’s beliefs and behaviors? Using spa- tial, qualitative, and experimental data I show how Egypt’s authoritarian political economy incentivized the Brotherhood to channel social service resources away from Egypt’s myriad poor neighborhoods and villages and into middle class, electorally competitive areas. In those districts, the group’s provision of social ser- vices drove electoral support neither through the contingent, episodic exchange of clientelism nor by generating a cadre of Islamists seeking to establish God’s rule on earth. Instead, the Brotherhood’s professional and compassionate social ser- vice provision generated a powerful reputational effect that benefitted the group on election day. ix Contents Introduction 1 1 Elections and the Parties That Win Them 18 2 Subcontracting Social Welfare 43 3 Helpless in ’Elwan 82 4 Mr. Morsi’s Machine 116 5 From Medicine to Mobilization 137 6 Conclusion 171 Appendix A The Muslim Brotherhood’s Electoral History, 1976-2011 190 Appendix B Egypt’s Shifting Electoral Geography, 1971-2011 201 Appendix C Survey Methodology 206 x List of Tables 3.1 Regression Results, Distribution of Brotherhood Medical Facilities . 103 4.1 Difference of Means Test: Morsi Margin (Raw Votes), Cairo Gover- norate . 133 4.2 Difference of Means Test: Pro-Morsi Voteshare (%), Cairo Governorate133 4.3 Difference of Means Test: Pro-Morsi Turnout (%), Cairo Governorate 133 5.1 Self-reported Experience with the Brotherhood’s Medical Facilities . 148 5.2 Poor and Non-Poor Knowledge of Brotherhood Facilities . 148 5.3 Poor and Non-Poor Experience with Brotherhood Facilities . 148 5.4 Mediation Results, Effect of “Likability” on Propensity to Vote for Brotherhood Candidates . 157 5.5 Difference of Means Test: Respondents’ Satisfaction . 158 6.1 Summary of Historical Implications . 174 6.2 Summary of Spatial Implications .