Hirose, Y and Jasutis, G 2014 Analyzing the Upsurge of Violence and stability Mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 3(1): 23, pp. 1-18, DOI: http://dx.doi. org/10.5334/sta.du RESEARCH ARTICLE Analyzing the Upsurge of Violence and Mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Yoko Hirose* and Grazvydas Jasutis† This article aims to explore the mediation and upsurge of violence in the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict in order to introduce new elements into the mediation focused on the structure of violence. It analyzes the definition of violence and its stages, structure, and retrospective dynamics within this conflict. The research demonstrates that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict includes three kinds of violence manifesting through physical-behavioral deeds, structural-institutional and cultural violence. Physical-behavioral violence reached a peak again in January 2014, after a few years of relative silence. Current political structures and institutions are largely saturated with historical context based on negative memories (i.e. Sumgait pogrom, Khojaly massacres) and violence, accompanied by external posture and interests of international actors. This context constitutes cultural violence leading to antagonism and negative attitudes which result in violent behavior. The role of mediators (OSCE) in curbing violence seems to be insufficient largely because of its overwhelming focus on direct violence. It needs different strategies, resources and attitudes to find a proper solution to incorporate means dealing with the structural and cultural dimensions. Introduction from their positions located both in the Tensions and violence over the disputed territory of Armenia and in the occupied territory of Nagorno-Karabakh escalated in areas–the number reached 250 a day later. January 2014, with a number of incidents In the meantime, Armenia claimed that it between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces at did not respond to indiscriminate firing, it the line of contact (Kucera 2014). The num- responded only to precise shots (Interfax ber of incidents skyrocketed to hundreds 2014). The dramatic upsurge of incidents per day, involving periodic exchange of fire and irreconcilable positions between the and casualties on both sides. According to two Caucasian neighbors made it clear that the information provided by Azerbaijan,1 the region is neither at peace nor stable. on January 28, 2014, the armed forces of Additional measures should be undertaken Armenia violated the ceasefire 196 times to curb volatile actions and provide a final solution for reconciliation. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been engaged in a feud * Keio University, Japan over Nagorno-Karabakh, a 1,700 square [email protected] mile autonomous district of Azerbaijan with † Harriman Institute, USA [email protected], a population of 38,000, since the beginning [email protected] of the 20th century.2 Art. 23, page 2 of 18 Hirose and Jasutis: Analyzing the Upsurge of Violence and Mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict The ethnic conflict embedded in Nagorno- something which itself is by no means cer- Karabakh is, in part, due to the relationship tain (Cornell 1999). Scholars tend to pay that both groups have with the territory– attention to the mediation efforts, primarily they argue it is the cradle of their distinctive the role of OSCE. religious, cultural and linguistic identities According to Esmira Jafarova’s recent (Kuburas 2011). The most active military analysis, despite all the good work that has engagement, along with outburst of inci- been done so far, by treating both states dents by uncontrolled groups, volunteers the same–one being a victim of occupation and mercenaries, occurred from 1989 to and the other seeking to maintain its ter- 1994. This resulted in ethnic cleansing and ritorial acquisitions–risks the appearance an unresolved territorial dispute: killing of impartiality of the mediator (Jafarova and injuring thousands, displacing hun- 2014). Melita Cuburas analyzed the conflict dreds of thousands, and resulting in serious through the lens of identity and underscored human rights violations.3 After the active that the rebellions and violent clashes may phase of the conflict, the Armenian side of not have exploded into a full-scale war had it Nagorno-Karabakh established ‘the Republic not been for mobilizing elites in Azerbaijan of Nagorno-Karabakh’ (in Armenian, The and Armenia who commanded the armed Republic of Artsakh),4 with its own govern- forces. They implemented military strate- mental structure and armed forces. The most gies that simultaneously took advantage of active phase of the conflict was over in 1994 Azerbaijan’s political instability and Armenia’s when a ceasefire agreement was concluded nationalist ambitions (Kuburas 2011). between the parties to the conflict, under Anastasia Voronkova analyzed the relation- the mediation of Russia. However, it has not ship between nationalism, territory, and ended violence and tension over the dis- organized violence in the ethno-national dis- puted territory. pute over Nagorno-Karabakh and advocated The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been that a consideration of these dimensions widely analyzed by scholars, conflict man- has the potential to provide a fuller explana- agement practitioners, international secu- tion of territorial rigidity than a single focus rity experts and politicians. However, the on the indivisibility of territory (Voronkova conflict still poses a real threat to regional 2013). Yoko Hirose analyzed retrospectively security and to communities. The trend the genocide issues in the conflict and dis- and structure of its violence have not been covered reciprocal ethnic slaughters (Hirose addressed sufficiently. George W. Breslauer 2006). There are many social media web- claims that while some issues have long sites and blogs that monitor the situation since calmed down but that the dispute over in Nagorno-Karabakh and provide multiple Nagorno-Karabakh only remains stalemated views and analysis on the role of external due to the advantage of Armenia. But, he actors, negotiations, socio-economics, refu- argues, it could flare up again if political gees and political-military developments. circumstances changed (Breslauer 2011). The aim of this article is to thoroughly Many researchers have devoted themselves analyze the upsurge of violence in the con- to the search for a resolution to this conflict. flict by explaining the structure and stages Various options have been analyzed exten- of violence and suggest the introduction sively by Svante E. Cornell who concludes of new mediation elements focused on the that the final solution to the conflict is natu- structure of the violence. The article consists rally dependent upon the evolution of the of three main parts. The first part explains positions of the parties and upon domestic the definition of violence, its stages in eth- and international pressures on the nego- nic conflict and its structure. It provides an tiators—should negotiations be undertaken, analytical and methodological tool for the Hirose and Jasutis: Analyzing the Upsurge of Violence and Mediation Art. 23, page 3 of 18 in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict research. The second part is focused on the lowering the real level of needs satisfaction Nagorno-Karabakh conflict which is analyzed below what is potentially possible (Galtung to understand its context, structure and 1990). Following armed conflict, the interna- current stage of violence. The third part is tional community and society tend to focus focused on mediation and its role in curbing exclusively on visible violence (its empirical violence in the disputed region. The authors objectivity and factuality), resulting in kill- have employed conflict management meth- ing, maiming, deporting and displacing con- odology to explain and analyze the research flict-affected population. However, Michel findings. This includes violence stages in eth- Wieviorka suggests that we recognize the nic conflict and the ABC violence triangle, way subjectivity influences how violence is which shows the structure of violence and experienced, lived, observed, represented, helps identify the areas which need to be desired or undergone by individuals, groups addressed to tackle the violence. The article and societies. Therefore, an objective defini- is based on an extensive review of literature, tion of violence will speak of a violent assault field interviews and practical experience on the physical, intellectual or moral integ- from the Caucasus region. rity of an individual or group of individuals The article concludes that the conflict is (Wieviorka 2009: 5). Every conflict is rife with not frozen and that the level of incidents is violence manifested in different forms. The not a sheer coincidence which will reduce roots of violence can be traced to social con- in the near future. The efforts of mediation texts, preferences, structural causes, psychol- to reduce the level of violence are focused ogy, and interests. The list of factors may well exclusively on the behavioral part, leaving approach infinity. Tatu Vanhanen has pro- aside structural-institutional and cultural posed employing a five-level scale to meas- factors. It is of tremendous importance to ure the extent of ethnic violence in single address cultural and structural violence countries (Table 1) (Vanhanen 2012). across the communities and the political Tatu Vanhanen originally conceived a elites through