EU-27 WATCH No. 8 ISSN 1610-6458 Issued in March 2009 Edited by the Institute for European Politics (IEP), Berlin in collaboration with the Austrian Institute of International Affairs, Vienna Institute for International Relations, Zagreb Bulgarian European Community Studies Association, Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Sofia Academy of Sciences, Budapest Center for European Studies / Middle East Technical Institute for Strategic and International Studies, University, Ankara Lisbon Centre européen de Sciences Po, Paris Institute of International and European Affairs, Centre d’étude de la vie politique, Université libre de Dublin Bruxelles Institute of International Relations, Prague Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches Européennes Institute of International Relations and Political Robert Schuman, Luxembourg Science, Vilnius University Centre of International Relations, Ljubljana Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome Cyprus Institute for Mediterranean, European and Latvian Institute of International Affairs, International Studies, Nicosia Riga Danish Institute for International Studies, Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies, Copenhagen University of Malta Elcano Royal Institute and UNED University, Madrid Netherlands Institute of International Relations European Institute of Romania, Bucharest ‘Clingendael’, The Hague Federal Trust for Education and Research, London Slovak Foreign Policy Association, Bratislava Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Helsinki Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Foundation for European Studies - European (SIPRI) Institute, Łodz Trans European Policy Studies Association Greek Centre of European Studies and Research, (TEPSA), Brussels Athens University of Tartu Bundesallee 23, D-10717 Berlin Tel.: +49/30/88.91.34-0, Fax: +49/30/88.91.34-99 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://www.iep-berlin.de www.eu-consent.net EU-27 Watch On the Project The enlarged EU of 27 members is in a process of reshaping its constitutional and political order, of continuing membership talks with candidate countries and taking on new obligations in international politics. This project sheds light on key issues and challenges of European integration. Institutes from all 27 EU member states as well as from Croatia and Turkey participate in the project. The aim is to give a full comparative picture of debates on European integration and current developments in European politics in each of these countries. This survey was conducted on the basis of a questionnaire that has been elaborated in November 2008 by all participating institutes. Most of the 29 reports were delivered in February 2009. This issue and all previous issues of EU-27 Watch (formerly EU- 25/27 Watch) are available on the homepage of EU-CONSENT (www.eu- consent.net) and on the internet sites of most of the contributing institutes. Please note the detailed table of content that allows readers to easily grasp key information and headlines of the country reports. The Institute for European Politics (IEP) in Berlin coordinates and edits EU-27 Watch. The IEP is grateful to the Otto Wolff-Foundation, Cologne, for supporting its research activities in the field of “Enlargement and neighbourhood policy of the EU”. Contact persons at the IEP are Barbara Lippert ([email protected]) and Tanja Leppik-Bork ([email protected]). Institutes/authors are responsible for the content of their country reports. Recommended citation form: Institut für Europäische Politik (Ed.): EU-27 Watch, No. 8, March 2009, Berlin, available at: http://www.eu-consent.net/content.asp?contentid=522. EU-27 Watch is part of EU-CONSENT, a network of excellence for joint research and teaching comprising more than 50 research institutes that addresses questions of the mutual reinforcing effects of deepening and widening of the EU. EU-CONSENT is supported by the European Union’s 6th Framework Programme. EU-27 Watch | Table of Content Table of Content On the Project ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Table of Content .................................................................................................................................... 3 List of Authors ..................................................................................................................................... 11 The EU in 2009 – a reassuring outlook even in times of crisis? .................................................... 12 2009: A year of opportunities and uncertainties?............................................................................ 18 How does the future of the EU after the Irish ‘No’ look like?.......................................................... 19 Austria (Austrian Institute of International Affairs) Conclusions of European Council seen mainly positive ................................................................ 20 Belgium (Centre d’étude de la vie politique, Université libre de Bruxelles) Hope for an early second Irish referendum but no major concern about the future of the EU ...... 20 Bulgaria (Bulgarian European Community Studies Association) Reformulation of the relationship between citizens and political elites needed............................. 22 Croatia (Institute for International Relations) Croatian concerns about the enlargement prospects after the Irish ‘No’....................................... 24 Cyprus (Cyprus Institute for Mediterranean, European and International Studies) European Council’s decision will help to overcome the institutional crisis..................................... 26 Czech Republic (Institute of International Relations) The parliament will finally decide on the Lisbon Treaty ................................................................. 28 Denmark (Danish Institute for International Studies) Lisbon Treaty and Danish opt-outs ................................................................................................ 30 Estonia (University of Tartu) A threat to Estonia’s long-term priority of enlargement?................................................................ 32 Finland (Finnish Institute of International Affairs) Quiet… And not very interested?................................................................................................... 33 France (Centre européen de Sciences Po) The future of the EU after the Irish ‘No’: many uncertainties ......................................................... 35 Germany (Institute for European Politics) Continuation of ratification process welcomed............................................................................... 37 Greece (Greek Centre of European Studies and Research) Keep the light burning .................................................................................................................... 39 Hungary (Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences) A strong pro-Lisbon and future-oriented stance............................................................................. 40 Ireland (Institute of International and European Affairs) The future of the EU after the Irish ‘No’ ......................................................................................... 41 Italy (Istituto Affari Internazionali) Linkage between European citizens and EU institutions has to be restored................................. 44 Latvia (Latvian Institute of International Affairs) National crisis management more important than future of the EU ............................................... 47 Lithuania (Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University) Attention concentrated on energy and the European Economy Recovery Plan............................ 49 Luxembourg (Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches Européennes Robert Schuman) Optimism about reinforcement of democracy, transparency and efficiency .................................. 50 Malta (Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies, University of Malta) Hope for the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009....................................................................... 52 Netherlands (Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’) Future of the EU after the Irish ‘No’................................................................................................ 53 Poland (Foundation for European Studies - European Institute) Positive attitude remains in Poland despite the Irish ‘No’ .............................................................. 54 EU-27 Watch | Table of Content Portugal (Institute for Strategic and International Studies) Lisbon Treaty ‘is not dead’ ............................................................................................................. 55 Romania (European Institute of Romania) After the Irish ‘No’: proceed with optimism.....................................................................................58 Slovakia (Slovak Foreign Policy Association) Slovakia and the institutional future of the EU ............................................................................... 61 Slovenia (Centre of International Relations) No stall in the enlargement process............................................................................................... 62 Spain (Elcano Royal Institute) The future of the EU after the Irish ‘No’ ......................................................................................... 64 Sweden (Stockholm International Peace