WWF is an independent conservation organisation, with over 5 million supporters and a global network active in over 100 countries. WWF's mission is to stop the degradation of the Earth's natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world's biological diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption. WWF-UK The Living Planet Centre Rufford House, Brewery Rd, Woking GU21 4LL, United Kingdom Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds: Dr Anne Owen, Dr Diana Ivanova, Prof John Barrett WWF: Stephen Cornelius, Angela Francis, Shirley Matheson, Gareth Redmond-King, Lucy Young Design: Jo Curnow / 1tightship.co.za Front cover photo: © Germund Sellgren / WWF-Sweden Copyright Credit © Global Warming Images / WWF Back cover photo: © NicoElNino / Shutterstock CARBON FOOTPRINT: EXPLORING THE UK’S CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE | MARCH 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Copyright Credit © Global Warming Images / WWF III In this report we examine the UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 1990 and 2016 using a new 15 trade-region global multi-regional input output (MRIO) model database (“WWF-UKMRIO”) developed by researchers from the University of Leeds. We examine the territorial-, production- and consumption-based GHG emissions in the UK and their development between 1990 and 2016. This report aims to contribute to a body of literature exploring the trade-linked UK carbon footprint1. The new WWF model outputs compare well with those from the four trade-region MIRO database used to produce the 1997-2016 carbon footprint for the UK Government2. As our dataset runs from 1990 to 2016, comparisons between the UK carbon footprint and the reported UK territorial emissions decline can now be made. The finer disaggregation of world regions in the WWF- UKMIRO model allows for new insights into the origin of the UK’s carbon footprint. MAIN RESULTS Between 1990 and 2016 the UK reported a 41% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions within the UK’s national borders.3 While this measures progress towards the UK’s domestic and international climate targets it does not reflect the full contribution of UK-based consumption to climate change. Between 1990 and 2016 the UK’s consumption-based emissions (carbon footprint) declined by 15%.4 The marked difference to the territorial figure is due to the large share of emissions relating to goods and services imported from overseas. The difference, therefore, implies that while the UK has made progress to reduce its contribution to climate change, it is not as substantial as claimed (fig ES1). Figure ES1: UK consumption, and production emissions (in million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) calculated using the WWF- UKMRIO database and UK territorial emissions 1990-2016 1 Your carbon footprint is the total amount of greenhouse gas released in the production and consumption of all the goods and services you use, wherever in the world they are produced. The UK carbon footprint sums up the consumption demands of everyone living in the UK. 2 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uks-carbon-footprint 3 National GHG inventories monitor territorial emissions, considering emission embedded in imports is outside this metric. 4 Consumption-based accounting of GHG emissions reassigns global emissions to the point of consumption rather than production. The consumption-based GHG account for the UK is the sum of the emissions emitted to meet final demand consumption by UK households and government. CARBON FOOTPRINT: EXPLORING THE UK’S CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE | MARCH 2020 In 2016, 54% of the UK’s carbon footprint was domestically sourced with the remaining 46% coming from emissions released overseas to satisfy UK consumption. The overseas proportion of the UK’s carbon footprint increased substantially – from just 14% in 1990 – thus reducing the scope of UK climate policy to affect emissions associated with consumption. UK-based consumption drives emissions across the globe (fig ES2). The biggest six regions/countries with their percentage of the overall UK carbon footprint are: the EU (9.9%), China (7.3%), Africa (5.3%)5, the Middle East (5.3%), the USA (3.6%), and Russia (3.1%). Imported emissions are mostly associated with manufactured goods such as processed food, clothes and electronics. Figure ES2: UK emissions from territorial, production and consumption in 2016. Measured in MtCO₂e. Numbers may not add due to rounding to nearest million tonnes. In 2016, six sectors contributed to almost half (46%) of the UK’s carbon footprint – these emissions are a combination of those arising domestically and from emissions released overseas to satisfy UK consumption. The biggest six sectors and their contribution to the UK carbon footprint are: heating homes (9.7%), car fuel (8.6%), electricity (8%), construction (6.7%), agriculture (6.6%) and air travel (5.9%)6. The largest three of these are associated with sectors which are expected to fully decarbonise domestically by 2050 under the UK Committee on Climate Change’s pathway to decarbonisation. A greater understanding of impacts of UK decarbonisation on these and other sectors will better inform both national and international sustainability policies. Air travel saw the greatest percentage increase in carbon footprint between 1990 and 2016 – up 245%, from 19 to 47 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). At present these carbon dioxide emissions are monitored by airlines as part of a UN aviation scheme which aims to ensure any rise in aviation is offset elsewhere. International aviation does not form part of UK net-zero targets under the Climate Change Act. This means the UK government has not formally recognised that we need to take responsibility for our aviation footprint. 5 The Africa figure is a summation of the WWF-UKMRIO model regions “South Africa” and “Rest of Africa”. 6 The six sectors with identifier in the underlying database are: (107) Direct home heating, (108) Direct transport fuel, (52) Electricity, transmission and distribution, (58) Construction, (1) Products of agriculture, hunting and related services, and (65) Air transport services. V The carbon footprint from construction increased from 49 to 54 MtCO₂e between 1990 and 2016. Over that period emissions originating in the UK decreased from 36 MtCO₂e (74% of the total) to 28 MtCO₂e (52%) suggesting a trend of significant and increasing offshoring of emissions. IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS OFFSHORING The UK has expressed a commitment to end its contribution to climate change through the territorial net-zero emissions target in the Climate Change Act. However, the UK has been deindustrialising and increasing the proportion of food it imports which have offshored the production and associated emissions for many goods we rely on. This new work unpacks the dynamics of such offshoring and shows that nearly half of the UK’s carbon footprint is from emissions released overseas and so are not covered by national emission reporting and are not targeted by domestic climate policy. Better understanding the implications of UK decarbonisation to offshoring production and associated emissions will help identify additional policies and partnerships the Government should pursue to ensure domestic efforts do indeed help end the UK’s contribution to climate change. CARBON FOOTPRINT Consumption-based accounting – or carbon footprint – can help connect UK national policy actions to global emission reduction and not only reductions within our national borders. Integrating carbon footprint accounting into national climate policy provides a stronger link to climate science and global mitigation efforts. Carbon footprint is complementary to the existing framing of territorial emissions which follow agreed guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is important that Government strategies account for the UK carbon footprint to ensure that measures to reduce territorial emissions do not lead to an increase in global emissions. Benefits of accountability of the UK carbon footprint include: • Identifying additional strategies and policies needed to address risks of offshoring rather than reducing emissions reaching the atmosphere. For example, footprint could be addressed in policies targeting consumption patterns and more efficient use of resources, and trade. • Providing businesses and consumers with the tools to understand risks of offshoring emissions and how this relates to wider environmental footprint. Focusing policy solely at national-level decarbonisation cannot end the UK’s contribution to climate change. To do this we must also consider the carbon footprint due to UK-based consumption in policy making. CARBON FOOTPRINT: EXPLORING THE UK’S CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE | MARCH 2020 Your carbon footprint is the total amount of greenhouse gas released in the production and consumption of all the goods and services you use, wherever in the world they are produced. UK CARBON FOOTPRINT The UK carbon footprint sums up the consumption demands of everyone living in the UK. CONTRIBUTION OF TOP REGIONS TO THE UK CARBON FOOTPRINT SIX SECTORS 1990 TO 2016 CONTRIBUTE AROUND HALF OF 9.9% 7.3% 1200 AFRICA THE UK CARBON FOOTPRINT EU CHINA e) 5.3% 801 9.7% 8.6% 800 HEATING HOMES CAR FUEL MIDDLE 473 EAST 3.6% 5.3% USA 8.0% 6.7% 400 ELECTRICITY CONSTRUCTION Greenhouse gas emissions (MtCO 0 RUSSIA missions