ABSTRACT Title of Document: GERMANY, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE PROCESS OF DECISION MAKING IN GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY: CONSTRUCTING A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS Karin L. Johnston, Doctor of Philosophy, 2011 Directed By: Professor George Quester, Department of Government and Politics Germany’s emerging role as a supplier of security by contributing troops to out-of-area operations is a significant change in post-unification German foreign and security policy, and yet few studies have sought to explain how the process of decision making also has changed in order to accommodate the external and domestic factors that shape policy preferences and outcomes. The dissertation addresses these theoretical gaps in foreign policy analysis and in German foreign and security policy studies by examining the decision-making process in the case of Afghanistan from 2001–2008, emphasizing the importance of institutional structures that enable and constrain decision-makers and then gathering the empirical evidence to construct a framework for analyzing German foreign policy decision making. The dynamics of decision-making at the state level are examined by hypothesizing about the role of the chancellor in the decision-making process— whether there has been an expansion of chancellorial power relative to other actors— and about the role of coalition politics and the relative influence of the junior coalition partner in coalition governments. Results indicate that there are few signs that federal chancellors dominate or otherwise control decision-making outcomes, and that coalition politics remain a strong explanatory factor in the process that shapes the parameters of policy choices. The dissertation highlights the central role of the Bundestag, the German parliament. The German armed forces are indeed “a parliamentary army,” and the decision-making process in the Afghanistan case shows how operational parameters can be affected by parliamentary involvement. The framework for analysis of German foreign policy decision making outlines the formal aspects while emphasizing the importance of the informal process of decision making that is characterized by political bargaining and consensus building among major actors, particularly between the government and the parliamentary party fractions. Thus any examination of German out-of-area missions must take into account the co-determinative nature of decision making between the executive and legislative actors in shaping German foreign policy regarding its military engagements around the world. GERMANY, AFGHANISTAN, AND THE PROCESS OF DECISION MAKING IN GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY: CONSTRUCTING A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS By Karin Lynn Johnston Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2011 Advisory Committee: Professor George Quester, Chair Professor I. M. Destler Professor Virginia Haufler Professor Bartlomiej Kaminski Professor Miranda Schreurs © Copyright by Karin Lynn Johnston 2011 Dedication To Clay Ramsay and in memory of Edeltraud Tarsikes, née Tscharke. ii Acknowledgments There are a great many people to whom I am indebted. In particular, I am deeply grateful to those individuals who so kindly agreed to be interviewed and who provided such invaluable information on the basis of anonymity. I am indebted to them for sharing their insights and knowledge, particularly those in the Chancellery, Foreign Office, Ministry of Defense, members of the Bundestag and their staff, and officials of various parties and party foundations. I am indebted to many other individuals who took time out of their busy schedule to speak with me, in Washington D.C. and Berlin: Pia Bungarten, Director of the Washington DC office of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung; Helga Haftendorn, Professor Emeritus, Freie Universität Berlin; Klaus Linsenmeier, Executive Director Heinrich Böll Foundation North America; Hanns W. Maull, Professor, Universität Trier; Ingo Peters, Professor, Freie Universität Berlin; Thomas Risse, Professor, Freie Universität Berlin; Dr. Eberhard Sandschneider, Director, German Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin; Benjamin Schreer, Deputy Director, Aspen Institute, Berlin; Constanze Stelzenmüller, Director, German Marshall Fund, Berlin; Markus Kaim, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin. In addition, I have benefited from the intellectual stimulus and discussions with friends, former colleagues and others in Washington D.C., including: Stephen Szabo, Cathleen Fisher, Jackson Janes, Daniel Hamilton, Dieter Dettke, Gale Mattox, Bowman Miller, Stephan Wallace, and Lily Gardner-Feldman. The administrative process of finishing the dissertation was made immeasurably easier by the staff in the Government and Politics Department at the iii University of Maryland and particularly Ann Marie Clark, whose patience and guidance were particularly welcome. I am especially indebted to the members of my committee, whose sage advice, encouragement, and generosity of spirit are deeply appreciated. Debts that can never be adequately repaid go to the friends and family who wittingly or unwittingly have shared the dissertation experience, some of whom, however, must be acknowledged: Inge and Lotar Martin, and Dagmar Pruin and Björn Budick, whose deep generosity and friendship have sustained me over the years—ich hab’ noch einen Koffer in Berlin , thanks to them; Ilonka Oszvald, who so kindly agreed to give of her professional talents in editing the dissertation; Clare and Baxter Hill; Ginny, Sam, and Maddy; and Fran Burwell, a friend in countless ways who never fails to give good advice and Belgian chocolates as added incentive; and, finally, to my family—especially my “local” family of Johnstons (Frank, Theresa, and Isabelle) and Spanos (Steve and Tanya). I must also acknowledge my mother, Edeltraud Tarsikes, who passed on her love of her home and of Berlin, the city she grew up in; it is a bond that has not faltered. However, my deepest debt of all is to Clay Ramsay, whose patience, humor, encouragement, and unending support and steady supply of cups of coffee sustained me and kept me going. As with so many other publications, this dissertation reflects the comments, advice, and assistance of these and other individuals over the years, although any oversights and errors are my responsibility alone. iv Table of Contents Dedication ..................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments........................................................................................................ iii Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... v List of Tables ............................................................................................................. viii List of Figures .............................................................................................................. ix Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 Background ............................................................................................................... 1 Statement of the Problem .......................................................................................... 3 Research Question .................................................................................................... 7 Hypotheses .............................................................................................................. 10 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 12 Organization of the Dissertation ............................................................................. 13 Chapter 2: Early Experiences and Emerging Practices: German Out-Of-Area Missions Prior to Afghanistan .................................................................................... 17 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 17 The Context for Change: Postwar German Foreign Policy (1945–1990) ............... 18 1969–1990: Limited Humanitarian Assistance ................................................... 21 Post-Unification German Foreign Policy (1990–) .................................................. 23 1990–1995: Bosnia and the Constitutionality Issue............................................ 23 1995–2000: The Kosovo War ............................................................................ 36 Summary ................................................................................................................. 43 Chapter 3: The Theoretical Debate: Analyzing German Foreign Policy .................... 45 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 45 Realism and Structural Explanations of German Foreign Policy ........................... 46 Constructivism and Cultural Explanations of German Foreign Policy .................. 48 Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Analysis ...................................................... 59 Summary ................................................................................................................. 66 Chapter 4: Agency and Structure in German Foreign Policy: Executive Power and Political Parties