A Journal of Policy Development and Research TWO ESSAYS ON UNEQUAL GROWTH IN HOUSING VOLUME 22, NUMBER 2 • 2020 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research Managing Editor: Mark D. Shroder Associate Editor: Michelle P. Matuga Advisory Board Dolores Acevedo-Garcia Brandeis University Ira Goldstein The Reinvestment Fund Richard K. Green University of Southern California Mark Joseph Case Western Reserve University Matthew E. Kahn University of California, Los Angeles C. Theodore Koebel Virginia Tech Jens Ludwig University of Chicago Mary Pattillo Northwestern University Carolina Reid University of California Patrick Sharkey New York University Cityscape A Journal of Policy Development and Research Two Essays on Unequal Growth in Housing Volume 22, Number 2 • 2020 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research The goal of Cityscape is to bring high-quality original research on housing and community development issues to scholars, government officials, and practitioners. Cityscape is open to all relevant disciplines, including architecture, consumer research, demography, economics, engineering, ethnography, finance, geography, law, planning, political science, public policy, regional science, sociology, statistics, and urban studies. Cityscape is published three times a year by the Office of Policy Development and Research (PD&R) of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Subscriptions are available at no charge and single copies at a nominal fee. The journal is also available on line at huduser.gov/periodicals/cityscape.html. PD&R welcomes submissions to the Refereed Papers section of the journal. Our referee process is double blind and timely, and our referees are highly qualified. The managing editor will also respond to authors who submit outlines of proposed papers regarding the suitability of those proposals for inclusion in Cityscape. Send manuscripts or outlines to [email protected]. Opinions expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of HUD or the U.S. government. Visit PD&R’s website, huduser.gov, to find this report and others sponsored by PD&R. Other services of HUD USER, PD&R’s Research and Information Service, include listservs, special interest and bimonthly publications (best practices, significant studies from other sources), access to public use databases, and a hotline (1–800–245–2691) for help with accessing the information you need. Contents Symposium Two Essays on Unequal Growth in Housing ................................................................................. 1 Guest Editor: John Carruthers Note from the Managing Editor .................................................................................................. 3 The Closing of America’s Urban Frontier ................................................................................... 5 by Edward L. Glaeser Housing Inequality in Developing Asia and the United States: Will Common Problems Mean Common Solutions? ........................................................................................ 23 by Toshiaki Aizawa, Matthias Helble, and Kwan Ok Lee Departments ........................................................................................................................... 61 Data Shop Parcel Tax in California: Findings from New Data Sources .................................................... 63 by Soomi Lee Foreign Exchange How Finland Ended Homelessness .......................................................................................... 75 by Marybeth Shinn and Jill Khadduri Graphic Detail Early Interstate Policy and Its Effects on Central Cities ......................................................... 81 by Jeffrey Brinkman and Jeffrey Lin The “Punitive Push” on Mobile Homes .................................................................................... 87 by Graham Pruss and Karen Cheng Industrial Revolution Upcycling Shipping Containers for Houses ............................................................................. 95 by Mike Blanford and Stephen Bender Policy Briefs Opportunity Zones: A Place-Based Incentive for Investment in Low-Income Communities ...................................................................................................... 101 by Daniel Marcin A Comprehensive Look at Housing Market Conditions Across America’s Cities ................ 111 by Anita Yadavalli, Brenna Rivett, James Brooks, and Christiana K. McFarland Cityscape iii Contents SpAM Applying Spaghetti and Meatballs to Proximity Analysis ..................................................... 133 by Alexander Din Referees 2019–20 ..................................................................................................................... 149 Call for Papers Cityscape Symposium on Opportunity Zones ........................................................................ 151 iv Contents Symposium Two Essays on Unequal Growth in Housing Guest Editor: John Carruthers Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research • Volume 22, Number 2 • 2020 Cityscape 1 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development • Office of Policy Development and Research 2 Two Essays on Unequal Growth in Housing Note from the Managing Editor Mark D. Shroder Department of Urban Housing and Development In 2018 I accepted a proposal from John Carruthers of Cornell University to present a symposium in this issue on the housing problems posed for all levels of government by the growth and decline of metropolitan areas. Between our agreement and the deadline for this issue, various barriers to completion of the symposium arose, most notably the coronavirus pandemic that interrupted the work of several participants. As a result, Professor Carruthers was only able to approve two studies that represent contributions to knowledge directly related to the mission of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Although two studies would not constitute a symposium under normal circumstances, we are still fortunate to be able to bring these works to our readers. In “The Closing of America’s Urban Frontier,” Edward Glaeser of Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research notes that the movement of people to productive cities was historically responsible for a large part of the growth in the American economy and living standards, but that in the past 50 years the most productive cities have become resistant to increases in the housing stock. This has been a factor in rising inequality and reduced rates of overall growth. He sees two alternative policy paths for the nation: one in which the states and the Federal government find means of removing local regulatory barriers, and one in which Federal policy increasingly favors relatively depressed areas. In “Housing Inequality in Metropolitan Areas in Developing Asia and the United States: Will Common Problems Mean Common Solutions?” Toshiaki Aizawa of the University of York, Mathias Helble of the Asian Development Bank, and Kwan Ok Lee of the National University of Singapore investigate and contrast housing inadequacy in 10 developing Asian countries and in the United States. The Asian nations are Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Tajikistan, and Timor-Leste. The data source for information on housing in those nations is the Demographic and Health Survey—an ongoing collaboration between the U.S. Agency for International Development and the governments of the named nations; the data source for information on housing in the United States is HUD’s American Housing Survey. The authors find that larger urban areas with greater income inequality tend to have greater amounts of inadequate housing, and they review possible policy responses. Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research • Volume 22, Number 2 • 2020 Cityscape 3 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development • Office of Policy Development and Research 4 Two Essays on Unequal Growth in Housing by Edward L. Glaeser The Closing of America’s Urban Frontier Edward L. Glaeser Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research Abstract For most of America’s history, migrants have moved in large numbers from less productive places to more productive places. For the past 150 years, the movement to the urban frontier has been distinctly more economically important than movement to areas with little human settlement. Over the past 50 years, migration to America’s most productive cities has been increasingly checked by the regulation of new construction. The closing of the urban frontier is associated with unaffordable housing, widening gaps in housing wealth, a spatial mismatch between local productivity, population growth, and the end of regional income convergence. One policy response to the change is to encourage state legislatures to take more regulatory power over construction or to provide localities with stronger financial incentives to build. Federal highway funding could be tied to the level of construction in high-demand areas. A second response is to accept the closed urban frontier and to embrace place-based policies that reduce joblessness in depressed areas through employment subsidies, social insurance reform, and experimental vocational training programs. I. Introduction In 1893, Frederick Jackson Turner presented his essay, “The Significance of the Frontier in American History,”