Brussels, 22.3.2021 SWD(2020) 330 final/2 CORRIGENDUM: This document corrects document SWD(2020) 330 final of 30.11.2020 Modification of figure 6 on page 21 The text shall read as follows: COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Overview of natural and man-made disaster risks the European Union may face EN EN Table of contents ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 2 LIST OF FIGURES AND BOXES ...................................................................................................... 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 8 2. PROTECTING THE EUROPEAN PUBLIC FROM DISASTERS: THE EU POLICY LANDSCAPE....................................................................................................................................... 10 3. THE CHANGING RISK LANDSCAPE IN EUROPE ............................................................ 16 3.1. Lessons from the past ............................................................................................................ 16 3.1.1. Recent disasters in the EU ............................................................................................. 16 3.1.2. Use of EU solidarity instruments for assistance with disasters ..................................... 17 3.1.3. The toll of past disasters ................................................................................................ 23 3.2. Risk drivers............................................................................................................................ 28 3.2.1. Climate change .............................................................................................................. 29 3.2.2. Urbanisation .................................................................................................................. 33 3.2.3. Environmental degradation ........................................................................................... 40 3.2.4. The changing security landscape ................................................................................... 41 3.2.5. Technological developments ......................................................................................... 47 4. UNDERSTANDING DISASTER RISKS IN THE EU: PROGRESS, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS ....................................................................................................................................... 52 4.1. National risk assessments ...................................................................................................... 52 4.2. The data challenge ................................................................................................................. 56 5. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE EU .......................................................................................................................................... 59 ANNEX 1. THE OVERVIEW OF SELECTED DISASTER RISKS IN THE EU ........................ 66 1 ABBREVIATIONS ATM Automated teller machine CAP Common agricultural policy CBRN Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear DALY Disability-adjusted life year DRMKC European Commission Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre EAFRD European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control ECI European critical infrastructure ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECURIE European Community Urgent Radiological Information Exchange system EDO European Drought Observatory EEA European Environment Agency or European Economic Area EEAS European External Action Service EFAS European Flood Awareness System EFFIS European Forest Fire Information System EFSA European Food Safety Authority EIOPA European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority EMV Europay, Mastercard, Visa ENISA European Union Agency for Cybersecurity ENSREG European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group EPCIP European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection ERCC Emergency Response Coordination Centre ERNCIP European Reference Network for Critical Infrastructure Protection ESA European Space Agency ESIF European Structural and Investment Funds EU European Union EUMETSAT European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUR Euro EWRS Early Warning and Response System FD Floods Directive FRMP Flood risk management plan GAR Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction GDO GLOBAL Drought Observatory GDP Gross domestic product GHG Greenhouse gas GloFas Global Flood Awareness System GNI Gross national income GWIS Global Wildfire Information System HIV Human immunodeficiency viruses IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICT Information and communication technologies iOCTA Internet organised crime threat assessment IBPES Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2 IPCR EU Integrated Political Crisis Response ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant JRC Joint Research Centre of the European Commission LNG Liquefied natural gas LPG Liquefied petroleum gas MERS Middle East respiratory syndrome NATECH Natural hazard triggered technological accident NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NDC Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement NFC Near Field Communication NRA National risk assessment OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PESETA Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up analysis RAN Radicalisation awareness network RBMP River basin management plan RCP Representative concentration pathway SARS Severe acute respiratory syndrome SOMA Observatory for Social Media Analysis SWD European Commission staff working document UAV Unmanned aerial vehicle UCPM Union Civil Protection Mechanism UK United Kingdom UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees WFD Water framework Directive WHO World Health Organisation WISC Windstorm Information Service 3 LIST OF FIGURES AND BOXES Figure 1. Cohesion policy funding for risk prevention and management in 2014-2020 Figure 2. Maximum value of the daily maximum temperature (°C) and daily averaged temperature anomalies (°C) compared with the long-term mean, over 25-29 June 2019. Figure 3. Requests for UCPM assistance from EU Member States / UCPM participating states by type of disaster, 2007-2019 Figure 4. Requests for UCPM assistance by EU Member State / UCPM participating state, 2007-2019 Figure 5. Total direct damage incurred in disasters, as declared in applications to the EU Solidarity Fund, 2002-2019 Figure 6. EU Solidarity Fund assistance granted, breakdown by disaster type and year, 2002- 2019 Figure 7. EU Solidarity Fund assistance granted by country, 2002-2019 Figure 8. Mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases, EU-28, 1980-2015 Figure 9. Fatalities caused by selected natural hazards, EU-28, 1980-2017 Figure 10. Fatalities in extreme weather and climate-related events, 1980-2017 Figure 11. Fatalities in terrorist attacks in the EU-28, 2006-2019 Figure 12. Economic losses from disasters caused by natural hazards, EU-28, 1980-2017 Figure 13. Economic losses from disasters caused by natural hazards, by year, EU-28, 1980- 2017 Figure 14. Impacts of extreme weather and climate-related events in the EU, 1980-2017 Figure 15. Area of land in Natura 2000 sites burnt, in hectares, 2009-2018 Figure 16. Global GHG emissions and global mean temperature change Figure 17. Change in population and built-up areas, 1975-2015 per region of the world Figure 18. Pattern of net land take in Europe between 2000-2018 (km2) Figure 19. Change per decade in the share of sealed soil in core cities Figure 20. Surface area with a low capacity to control flooding in cities Figure 21. The most common risks in National Risk Assessments in 2015 and 2018 reporting cycles Box 1. Boosting the EU’s capacity to deal with disasters: the 2019 reform of UCPM Box 2. The EU Solidarity Fund: findings from the 2019 evaluation Box 3. Cultural heritage and disasters: the 2019 floods in Venice Box 4. New and emerging risks Box 5. Climate change and its impacts: insights from the IPCC special reports Box 6. Projected climate change impacts in Europe: PESETA IV research results Box 7. Urban heat islands Box 8. The EU Copernicus programme and disaster risk management Box 9. Evolving thinking on disaster risks: GAR 2019 Box 10. Climate change as a driver of disaster risk in national risk assessments Box 11. Low-probability risks with a high impact – the concept Box 12. The DRMKC Risk Data Hub Box 13. European institutions call for a strengthening of the EU’s crisis management system 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Commission staff working document is the second edition of an overview of the natural and man-made disaster risks that the EU may face, prepared under EU legislation on civil protection. The aim of the overview is to capture the trends in the ever-evolving disaster risk landscape, discuss the major drivers shaping it, take a closer look at 12 selected disaster risks of particular relevance for Europe and to assess the implications of developments in disaster risks for