View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by The Australian National University PACIFIC ECONOMIC BULLETIN Greed and grievance: the role of economic agendas in the conflict in Solomon Islands Matthew Allen This article investigates the applicability of the influential Matthew Allen is a economics of civil war literature to the case of the conflict which PhD scholar with the occurred in Solomon Islands between 1998 and 2003. It is argued Asia Pacific School of that a modified version of the greed thesis resonates with Economics and Government at The particular aspects of the situation in Solomon Islands, particularly Australian National during the latter phases of the conflict when a variety of actors, University. including politicians, businessmen and ex-militants, were clearly benefiting from the instrumentalisation of violence and disorder. The underlying causes of the conflict have much to do with historical patterns of uneven development which have created overlapping boundaries of social-economic inequality and ethnicity. As is the case with other recent armed conflicts in Melanesia, issues of land, identity, ethnicity and socioeconomic justice were central to the conflict. Since the late 1980s, development economists argument is that young men are motivated have become increasingly involved in the to rebel by the opportunity to predate on field of conflict studies. An influential lootable primary resources, and also by the literature has emerged which argues that opportunity cost of not doing so. Greed, economic motives are the primary drivers of rather than grievance, is regarded as the main contemporary civil wars. According to motivational force behind conflict. The so- econometric modelling, civil wars are called ‘greed’ thesis has generated statistically most likely to occur in countries considerable debate amongst social with a high dependence on the export of scientists. A nascent ‘beyond greed and primary commodities, a high proportion of grievance’ literature acknowledges the poorly educated young men in the populace, importance of economic agendas in civil and slow economic growth (Collier 2000; wars, but widens the narrow analytical lens Collier and Hoffler 1998, 2001). The of neoclassical economics to include 56 Pacific Economic Bulletin Volume 20 Number 2 August 2005 © Asia Pacific Press GREED AND GRIEVANCE consideration of political, cultural and deployment of the Australian-led Regional historical factors and contexts (see Cramer Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands 2002; Ballentine and Sherman 2003; Pearce (RAMSI) in July 2003. 2005). This emergent literature is also placing It is argued that, with significant small wars in the context of weak and failing modification, elements of the greed-driven states, and wider processes of globalisation. model of conflict resonate with particular In this broadened perspective, state and aspects of the conflict in Solomon Islands. A commercial actors are also viewed as range of actors, including ex-militants, potentially important conflict actors. politicians and Honiara businessmen, The socioeconomic characteristics of benefited financially from the violence and Solomon Islands, with its dependence on disorder, particularly during the post coup primary commodity exports and its large phase of the conflict. Much of the economic demographic youth bulge, make it an ideal gain flowed directly from government coffers candidate for a greed-driven conflict or as a consequence of the pervasive corruption ‘resource war’. The objective of this article is of the compensation and demobilisation to examine the relevance of the economics of processes. Under these circumstances, it is civil war literature in the case of the recent the state, rather than ‘lootable’ primary conflict in Solomon Islands. resources, which is the subject of predation. This conflict commenced in late 1998, However, the greed thesis cannot provide when Guadalcanal militants, collectively a solely satisfactory explanation for the known as the Isatabu Freedom Movement origins and dynamics of the conflict in (IFM), set about a violent campaign of Solomon Islands. The assumption that harassment which saw the eviction of large individuals will always behave in a rational numbers of migrant settlers from their homes and benefit-maximising way obscures on the Guadalcanal Plains and around important social and cultural influences on Honiara, most of whom originated from the individuals’ motives for participating in densely populated island of Malaita. A rival collective violence. The comparative regional militant group, the Malaita Eagle Force literature encourages us to see socioeconomic (MEF), formed between late 1999 and early inequality and ethnicity as potent drivers of 2000. Comprising ex-policemen, men who conflict in Melanesia,1 particularly in had been evicted from their homes on situations where socioeconomic cleavages Guadalcanal and so-called ‘angry young coincide with the fluid and pliable men’ from the streets and settlements of boundaries of ethnic identity. As has been Honiara, the MEF formed a ‘Joint Operation’ the case with the armed rebellions in Fiji and with the paramilitary Police Field Force and, Bougainville, it would appear that ethnicity in June 2000, staged a coup d’etat after raiding became polarised around underlying issues the national armoury. Whilst the fighting of socioeconomic justice, particularly escalated dramatically after the coup, the concerning the distribution of the benefits of military-style armed conflict effectively development. Moreover, the largely ended with the signing of the Townsville geographically based socioeconomic Peace Agreement in October 2000. However, inequalities which have developed between the Agreement did not bring about peace as and within groups in Solomon Islands have low-level violence and lawlessness roots stretching back to the early contact continued to characterise various parts of the period, and were further reinforced during country, particularly Honiara and the remote the British protectorate period. After the Weather Coast of Guadalcanal, until the Second World War, expressions of island and 57 Pacific Economic Bulletin Volume 20 Number 2 August 2005 © Asia Pacific Press PACIFIC ECONOMIC BULLETIN area-wide ethnic solidarities emerged as a formulation of the greed thesis, downplaying means to voice grievances concerning the role of motive in favour of a focus on the perceived injustices at the hands of the ‘opportunity for rebellion’. colonial administration. The list of grievances The work of Collier and his colleagues has expanded since independence in 1978 to resonates strongly with the ‘resource curse’ include widespread dissatisfaction with post- literature. Numerous studies suggest that colonial governments, which have overseen states that depend heavily on the export of corruption, mismanagement and wastage, natural resources, particularly oil, gemstones particularly in the lucrative forestry sector, and minerals, tend to suffer from a variety of and have failed to deliver services to the rural conditions including slow economic growth, populace. high poverty rates, high levels of corruption and authoritarian governments (see Ross 2004 for a summary of these studies). Other Greed and grievance: neoclassical studies, including those by Collier and his economic models of intrastate colleagues, link at least one of these resource conflict curse conditions with the incidence of civil war. Ross concludes that the ‘effect of natural The ‘greed and grievance’ approach has been resource dependence on conflict may be part developed by Paul Collier and his World of a larger phenomenon: the resource curse’ Bank colleagues who classify numerous (Ross 2004:350). possible ‘causes’ of civil war under two broad The greed thesis also resonates with the headings: ‘greed’, meaning the pursuit of literature concerning the relationship profit; and ‘grievance’, meaning the redress between youth bulges and conflict (see Urdal of injustice (Collier and Hoeffler 1998, 2001; 2004). This literature, which is also Collier 2000). They analysed data on internal influential within World Bank policy and conflicts during the period from 1965 to 1999 research circles, sees demographic factors, against a range of economic, demographic particularly the presence of large youth and socio-cultural variables to determine cohorts, as the primary predictors of domestic which variables were most closely associated armed conflict. The risk of conflict is said to with the occurrence of civil war. Their general increase when youth bulges occur in the conclusion was that ‘objective grievances’, context of economic stagnation and limited such as inequality, political repression and options for out-migration. However, as is the ethnic and linguistic divisions have little case with the neoclassical economics models bearing on the likelihood of the outbreak of of civil war, precise causal mechanisms conflict. By contrast, ‘economic remain unclear. characteristics’, particularly dependence on While the youth bulge hypothesis in primary export commodities, a high general is supported by empirical proportion of poorly educated young men, evidence, the ways that youth bulges and slow economic growth, are powerful influence conflict propensity still predictors of civil war. The reasoning is that remain largely unexplored empirically rebel groups are motivated to wage war in (Urdal 2004:16). order to profit in a material sense through