Sea-to-Sky Land and Resource Management Plan (LRMP) Socio-Economic Base-Case Update NOVEMBER 2005 Prepared by: • Steve Nicol, Lions Gate Consulting Inc. • Randy Sunderman, Peak Solutions Consulting Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 4 2 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 DATA STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS ........................................................................................ 7 2.4 REPORT STRUCTURE .................................................................................................................. 7 3 HUMAN POPULATION ................................................................................................................8 3.1 CURRENT POPULATION .............................................................................................................. 8 3.2 ANTICIPATED POPULATION AND TRENDS................................................................................... 9 4 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE......................................................................................................... 10 4.1 LABOUR FORCE........................................................................................................................ 10 4.2 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEPENDENCIES..................................................................................... 12 4.3 COMMUNITY ECONOMIC DEPENDENCIES................................................................................. 14 4.4 RECENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS IN ECONOMIC STRUCTURE .............................................. 15 5 COMMUNITY SNAPSHOTS ...................................................................................................... 17 5.1 PEMBERTON............................................................................................................................. 17 5.2 SQUAMISH................................................................................................................................ 17 5.3 WHISTLER................................................................................................................................ 18 5.4 LIONS BAY............................................................................................................................... 19 5.5 FIRST NATIONS ........................................................................................................................ 19 5.5.1 Socio-Economic Profile................................................................................................ 19 6 FORESTRY.................................................................................................................................... 22 6.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 22 6.2 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 26 7 TOURISM AND RECREATION................................................................................................. 28 7.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 28 7.1.1 Overview....................................................................................................................... 28 7.1.2 Industry Structure......................................................................................................... 28 7.1.3 Tourism Markets........................................................................................................... 29 7.1.4 Visitor Spending ........................................................................................................... 31 7.1.5 Economic Impacts ........................................................................................................ 31 7.2 TOURISM SUB-SECTORS ........................................................................................................... 33 7.2.1 Downhill Skiing ............................................................................................................ 33 7.2.2 Commercial Recreation Activities................................................................................ 33 7.2.3 Guide Outfitting............................................................................................................ 34 7.3 RECREATION ACTIVITY............................................................................................................ 34 7.3.1 Parks............................................................................................................................. 34 7.3.2 Recreation Sites and Trails .......................................................................................... 34 2 7.3.3 Major Recreation Activities.......................................................................................... 35 7.3.4 Hunting and Fishing..................................................................................................... 37 7.4 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 38 8 COMMERCIAL FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE ............................................................ 42 8.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 42 8.2 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 43 9 MINING AND ENERGY.............................................................................................................. 44 9.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 44 9.1.1 Mining ..........................................................................................................................44 9.1.2 Energy ..........................................................................................................................46 9.2 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 48 9.2.1 Mining ..........................................................................................................................48 9.2.2 Energy ..........................................................................................................................50 9.2.3 Employment Trends...................................................................................................... 50 10 AGRICULTURE............................................................................................................................ 51 10.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 51 10.2 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 52 11 NON-TIMBER FOREST PRODUCTS AND TRAPPING ....................................................... 54 11.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 54 11.1.1 Non-Timber Forest Products........................................................................................ 54 11.1.2 Trapping ....................................................................................................................... 55 11.2 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 55 11.2.1 Non-Timber Forest Products........................................................................................ 55 11.2.2 Trapping ....................................................................................................................... 56 12 FILM INDUSTRY ......................................................................................................................... 57 12.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 57 12.2 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 58 13 TRANSPORTATION.................................................................................................................... 59 13.1 CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HISTORICAL TRENDS ....................................................................... 59 13.2 ANTICIPATED TRENDS ............................................................................................................. 60 14 REFERENCES............................................................................................................................... 62 15 LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................. 64 3 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Sea-to-Sky Land and Resource Management Plan (LRMP) was established by the Province of British Columbia as a process to generate recommendations