Auckland Air Emissions Inventory 2016 – Transport (Revised) Surekha Sridhar and Jayne Metcalfe March 2019 Technical Report 2018/016-2 Auckland air emissions inventory 2016 – transport (revised) March 2019 Technical Report 2018/016-2 Surekha Sridhar Jayne Metcalfe Emission Impossible Ltd Auckland Council Technical Report 2018/016-2 ISSN 2230-4525 (Print) ISSN 2230-4533 (Online) ISBN 978-1-98-858940-4 (Print) ISBN 978-1-98-858941-1 (PDF) This report has been peer reviewed by the Peer Review Panel. Review completed on 20 July 2018 Reviewed by two reviewers Approved for Auckland Council publication by: Name: Eva McLaren Position: Manager, Research and Evaluation (RIMU) Name: Matt Hope Position: Manager, Hydrology and Environmental Data Management (RIMU) Date: 21 March 2019 Recommended citation Sridhar, S and Metcalfe, J (2019). Auckland air emissions inventory 2016 – transport (revised). Prepared by Emission Impossible Ltd for Auckland Council. Auckland Council technical report, TR2018/016-2 Note This report corrects errors in the calculation of road dust (PM10 and PM2.5) from unsealed roads (Section 6.1) and replaces the version published in July 2018, Auckland Council technical report, TR2018/016. © 2019 Auckland Council This publication is provided strictly subject to Auckland Council’s copyright and other intellectual property rights (if any) in the publication. Users of the publication may only access, reproduce and use the publication, in a secure digital medium or hard copy, for responsible genuine non-commercial purposes relating to personal, public service or educational purposes, provided that the publication is only ever accurately reproduced and proper attribution of its source, publication date and authorship is attached to any use or reproduction. This publication must not be used in any way for any commercial purpose without the prior written consent of Auckland Council. Auckland Council does not give any warranty whatsoever, including without limitation, as to the availability, accuracy, completeness, currency or reliability of the information or data (including third party data) made available via the publication and expressly disclaim (to the maximum extent permitted in law) all liability for any damage or loss resulting from your use of, or reliance on the publication or the information and data provided via the publication. The publication, information, and data contained within it are provided on an "as is" basis. Executive summary Air emissions inventories are a critical component of managing air quality and need to be updated regularly to gauge how emissions are tracking in the region. There were many changes in the transport sector over the last decade in the Auckland region, and while these changes have seen positive results, they are being offset by the rate of growth in the region. Future growth will add more pressure and demand on existing infrastructure, resources, goods and services. An update of the air emissions inventory is therefore necessary to assess how the changes in Auckland region have impacted on emissions in the region, and to measure progress towards the Auckland Plan target (Auckland Council, 2012). This report estimates annual emissions to air from transport in the Auckland region for the year 2016 from motor vehicles, aviation, rail, road dust (sealed and unsealed), off-road vehicles and road laying1 for the following ambient air pollutants: particulate matter measuring less than 10 micrometres in diameter (PM10) particulate matter measuring less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter (PM2.5) oxides of nitrogen (NOx) carbon monoxide (CO) carbon dioxide (CO2) sulphur dioxide (SO2) volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Estimates were made using the best available activity data and emission factors for each source, and the associated uncertainty of the emissions estimates. Annual estimates of total emissions across the Auckland region in 2016 for the seven pollutants are approximately: 45,185t/yr CO (91% motor vehicles, 4% lawn mowers, 3% aircraft) 3,930kt/yr CO2 (81% motor vehicles, 12% aircraft, 7% off-road vehicles) 15,286t/yr NOx (67% motor vehicles, 17% aircraft, 15% off-road vehicles) 1,991t/yr PM10 (51% unsealed road dust, 32% motor vehicles, 9% off- road vehicles) 940t/yr PM2.5 (63% motor vehicles, 18% off-road vehicles, 11% unsealed road dust) 1 A separate shipping and ports inventory is available and is not included here. See Auckland air emissions inventory 2016 – sea transport. Auckland Council technical report, TR2018/017 Auckland air emissions inventory 2016 – transport (revised) iv 196t/yr SO2 (62% aircraft, 37% motor vehicles) 4,024t/yr VOCs (80% motor vehicles, 6% off-road vehicles, 6% road laying). Emissions from unsealed road dust were estimated to account for 51 per cent of PM10 emissions across the Auckland region and 12 per cent of PM10 emissions within the Auckland Urban Airshed. These estimates are based on very limited local information and are highly uncertain. Further work is recommended to improve the estimation of PM10 emissions from unsealed road dust. Fuel consumption was also estimated. Comparison of estimated on-road motor vehicle fuel consumption with regional fuel sales figures suggests that the inventory may underestimate emissions from motor vehicles by at least 20 per cent. Improving emissions and fuel consumption estimates from the inventory and the vehicle emissions prediction model (VEPM) is recommended as a priority for future research. Auckland air emissions inventory 2016 – transport (revised) v Acknowledgements Many individuals and organisations contributed to the successful completion of this project. The project team would like to acknowledge: KiwiRail for supplying freight and GIS data. Todd Ballance (Auckland Transport) for supplying motor vehicle data and assistance through the course of the project. Janani Thilakarathne and Elizabeth Parker (Auckland Transport) for providing spatial and traffic data on unsealed roads. NZ Transport Agency for supplying speed data for unsealed roads in the region. Dr Shanju Xie, Air Quality Scientist at Auckland Council. Auckland air emissions inventory 2016 – transport (revised) vi Table of contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ vi 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Content and structure of this report ................................................................... 4 1.2 Changes in this version of the report ................................................................. 4 2.0 Method ........................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Estimation of emissions ..................................................................................... 5 2.2 Estimation of uncertainty ................................................................................... 5 3.0 Motor vehicles ............................................................................................................. 9 3.1 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Results ............................................................................................................. 12 3.3 Uncertainty ...................................................................................................... 20 4.0 Aviation ..................................................................................................................... 27 4.1 Methodology .................................................................................................... 27 4.2 Results ............................................................................................................. 32 4.3 Uncertainty ...................................................................................................... 34 5.0 Rail ............................................................................................................................ 36 5.1 Methodology .................................................................................................... 36 5.2 Results ............................................................................................................. 40 5.3 Uncertainty ...................................................................................................... 41 6.0 Road dust .................................................................................................................. 43 6.1 Unsealed road dust .......................................................................................... 43 6.2 Road surface wear (sealed roads) ................................................................... 49 7.0 Off-road vehicles and lawn mowers .......................................................................... 51 7.1 Off-road vehicles .............................................................................................. 51 7.2 Lawn mowers................................................................................................... 57 7.3 Results ............................................................................................................. 58 7.4 Uncertainty ...................................................................................................... 60 8.0 Road laying ..............................................................................................................