chapter 9 Analysis of Maritime Transit Trends in the Arctic Passages Frédéric Lasserre and Olga Alexeeva* Introduction An increase in maritime activity will no doubt be one of the most important consequences of climate change in the Arctic region thanks to the unprece- dented melting of sea ice. The development of commercial shipping through newly-accessible routes will, however, raise a number of difficult issues: estab- lishing an effective response capability in the event of accidents, monitoring the exploitation of natural resources and curbing illegal trafficking in all of its forms. An increase in maritime traffic will also bring disagreements about the legal status of the new sea lanes and the right to exercise authority over them to the fore. While all of these questions warrant careful analysis and consider- ation, this contribution will focus on the present situation of commercial ship- ping through Arctic waters, specifically the Northwest Passage (NWP) and the Northeast Passage (NEP), and the potential for an increase in such activity. For several years, media stories have prophesied an Arctic maritime traffic boom. With no concrete economic analysis in support, such predictions have been little more than speculation.1 Some commentators have expressed the view that the Northwest Passage, toll free, will witness an expansion in traffic greater than the Northeast Passage.2 While maritime traffic patterns in the Arctic have been slow to change, since 2009 there has been a clear if modest * Frédéric Lasserre is Professor, Department of Geography and Director, Observatory of International Research on Water, Laval University, Quebec City, Canada. Olga Alexeeva is Assistant Professor, Department of History and Raoul-Dandurand Chair, University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM), Canada. 1 F. Lasserre, “Changements climatiques dans l’Arctique: vers la disparition de la banquise?,” in Passages et mers arctiques: géopolitique d’une région en mutation, ed. F. Lasserre (Québec: Presses de l’Université du Québec, 2010). 2 See: M. Byers, “Defending the North: Who’s Responsibility?” Presentation at the conference “The United States, Climate Change, and the Arctic. Renewed American Interest in a Changing North,” UQÀM, Montreal, 19–20 April 2007; and R. Huebert, “Climate Change and Canadian Sovereignty in the Northwest Passage,” ISUMA Canadian Journal of Policy Research 2, no. 4 (2001): 86–94. © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2015 | doi 10.1163/9789004284593_010 <UN> Analysis of Maritime Transit Trends 181 increase in the commercial use of both Passages. Relying on data provided by databases in Canada and Norway/Russia, this contribution aims to draw a real- istic picture of the future of commercial shipping in the Arctic sea lanes. Methodological Considerations: Diversity of the Data The analysis of transit traffic through the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage is based upon two specialized databases, one in Canada, the other in Norway/Russia. For the NWP, the database maintained by the Canadian Coast Guard, tasked with the responsibility of implementing the Northern Canada Vessel Traffic Services Zone Regulations (NORDREG), is an invaluable source of informa- tion. The database indicates the type of vessel, and provides various technical data including its size, ice class, power and cargo volume; the dates of its entry and exit from the NORDREG zone; the number of people on board; and the number of discrete movements completed by the ship within the zone. Details of ships’ movements within the Arctic Canada Traffic Zone are not provided. It is, therefore, not possible to know the specific routes ships take within the Canadian Arctic. This can be reconstructed using the detailed, but process- intensive, INNAV (Information System on Marine Navigation) database set up by the Canadian Coast Guard. While partial and complete transits of the NWP are also indicated, the main focus of the database is on ship movements within the NORDREG zone. On the other side of the Arctic basin, for the NEP, the Centre for High North Logistics (CHNL) is the “international knowledge hub on Arctic transport and logistics for businesses, research institutions and public authorities.”3 It is based in Kirkenes, Norway, with a branch in Murmansk, Russia. With the help of the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration (NSRA), it compiles data on transits across the Northern Sea Route between the Kara Gates and the Bering Strait, which includes the Northeast Passage. In addition, the NSRA provides real-time information on ship movements along the Northern Sea Route (NSR).4 At present, no information regarding a ships’ origin or destination is recorded, nor is the data from previous years conserved. It remains to be seen whether such data will at some point in the future be consolidated as is cur- rently being done in the NORDREG system. 3 Centre for High North Logistics, website at www.chnl.no/. 4 NSRA, “Daily Diagram of Vessel Movements in the Water Area of the Northern Sea Route,” http://www.nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/. <UN>.