Task 5: Freight Issues & Trends White Paper AMATS Freight Mobility Study Prepared for AMATS Prepared by HDR with RSG Anchorage, AK March 21, 2016 Task 5: Freight Issues & Trends White Paper HDR with RSG Contents 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 2 The Regional Economic Market .......................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Population & Households .......................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Major Industries ......................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Freight-Related Land Use ......................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Foreign Trade Zone ................................................................................................................. 10 2.5 Major Freight Generators ........................................................................................................ 11 2.5.1 Port of Anchorage ...................................................................................................... 11 2.5.2 Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport ............................................................ 12 2.5.3 Alaska Railroad Corporation Anchorage Rail Yard .................................................... 13 2.5.4 Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson .............................................................................. 13 3 Logistics Patterns, Flows, and Modes ............................................................................................... 14 3.1 Water Cargo ............................................................................................................................ 20 3.1.1 Existing Conditions ..................................................................................................... 20 3.1.2 Trends/Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 21 3.2 Air Cargo ................................................................................................................................. 25 3.2.1 Existing Conditions ..................................................................................................... 25 3.2.2 Trends/Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 27 3.3 Highway Cargo ........................................................................................................................ 28 3.3.1 Existing Conditions ..................................................................................................... 28 3.3.2 Trends/Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 34 3.4 Rail Cargo ............................................................................................................................... 44 3.4.1 Existing Trends ........................................................................................................... 44 3.4.2 Trends/Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 44 3.5 Pipeline .................................................................................................................................... 45 3.5.1 Existing Conditions ..................................................................................................... 45 3.5.2 Trends/Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 45 4 Safety & Security Issues ................................................................................................................... 46 4.1 Water Cargo ............................................................................................................................ 46 4.2 Air Cargo ................................................................................................................................. 46 4.3 Highway Cargo ........................................................................................................................ 47 4.4 Rail Cargo ............................................................................................................................... 52 4.5 Pipeline .................................................................................................................................... 53 5 Bottlenecks, Level of Service & Capacity Issues .............................................................................. 54 5.1 Water Cargo ............................................................................................................................ 54 5.2 Air Cargo ................................................................................................................................. 54 5.3 Highway Cargo ........................................................................................................................ 55 5.4 Rail Cargo ............................................................................................................................... 57 5.5 Pipeline .................................................................................................................................... 57 6 Fuel & Energy Issues ........................................................................................................................ 58 7 Information & Energy Strategies ....................................................................................................... 60 7.1 Intelligent Transportation Systems .......................................................................................... 60 March 21, 2016 | i Task 5: Freight Issues & Trends White Paper HDR with RSG 7.2 Energy Strategies .................................................................................................................... 63 8 Key Conclusions & Next Steps.......................................................................................................... 65 Tables Table 1: AMATS Travel Model Employment Estimates 2013-2040 ............................................................. 3 Table 2: Anchorage Location Quotients 2004, 2009, 2014 .......................................................................... 5 Table 3: Potential Infrastructure Improvement Projects Related to Anchorage Freight ............................. 14 Table 4: 2013 Alaska Statewide Water Cargo Data Flow Summary (Short Tons) ..................................... 20 Table 5: Port of Anchorage Tonnage Trends by Commodity 2006-2015 ................................................... 21 Table 6: Port of Anchorage NAFTA Import Commodities by Value (US Dollars) ....................................... 23 Table 7: Port of Anchorage NAFTA Export Commodities by Value (US Dollars) ....................................... 25 Table 8: Cargo by International and Domestic Share, 2015 ....................................................................... 26 Table 9: Top TSAIA Cargo Carriers by Direction, 2014-2015 .................................................................... 27 Table 10: 2009 Average Daily Truck Counts from MOA & DOT&PF.......................................................... 33 Table 11: 2014 Average Daily Truck Counts from MOA & DOT&PF.......................................................... 33 Table 12: WIM Data Summary for Anchorage Stations (365 Days) ........................................................... 34 Table 13: 2040 Short Haul Truck Traffic (Top 5 TAZs by Number of Trucks) ............................................ 35 Table 14: 2040 Long Haul Truck Traffic (Top 5 TAZs by Number of Trucks) ............................................. 36 Table 15: 2040 Truck Traffic (Top TAZs by Number of Trucks) ................................................................. 37 Table 16: 2011-2013 Truck Incidents Resulting in Fatalities in the AMATS Study Area ............................ 47 Table 17: DOT&PF Crash Data Summaries, 2009 - 2014 .......................................................................... 49 Table 18: Alaska Light Conditions for 2014 CMV Crashes ......................................................................... 51 Table 19: Alaska Weather Conditions for 2014 CMV Crashes ................................................................... 51 Table 20: 2015 Anchorage Regional ITS Architecture Update Projects ..................................................... 61 Figures Figure 1: Anchorage Employment Levels for 2004, 2009, and 2014 ........................................................... 5 Figure 2: AMATS Anchorage Bowl Land Use Designated by the Municipality of Anchorage ...................... 7 Figure 3: AMATS Chugiak-Eagle River Land Use Designated by the Municipality of Anchorage ............... 8 Figure 4: Land Use Policy Map, Anchorage 2020: Anchorage Bowl Comprehensive Plan ......................... 9 Figure 5: Industrial Land Use Areas in the Chugiak-Eagle River ............................................................... 10 Figure 6: Alaska’s 2012 Statewide Commodity Flows by Mode – Domestic/Import/Export ....................... 17 Figure 7: Alaska’s 2012 Commodity Value and Tonnage by Mode and