UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE LANDMI@JEREGIME Carolyn E. Lloyd Submitted in partial Wientof the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia August, 1997 O Copyright by Carolyn E. Lloyd, 1997 National Library Bibliothèque nationale of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisitions et Bibliogaphic Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395, nie Wellington Oüawa ON K1A ON4 OttawaON K1AW Canada Canada The author has granted a non- L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence ailowing the exclusive permettant à la National Library of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distri'bute or sell reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiichelfiim, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts fkom it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substmtie1s may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou autrement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Dedication 1 wouid like to dedicate this thesis to Tun Channereth who inspired me. Table of Contents Abstract Chapter One Introduction . Cha~terTwo The Interest Variable: Military and Economic Rationales of Landmines . Cha~terThree The Knowledge Variable: A Mine of Information? Cha~terFour The Power Variable: The Players and Process of the Landmine Regime . Cha~terFive Conclusion . Works Cited . Abstract There is today a global landmine crisis. One hundred million uncleared launmines currently lie in the ground. They rnaim or küI indiscrirninately, sometimes long after hostilities have ceased. Civilians are the leadhg victims, and not soldiers. The Iist of mine-infésted places in some sixty-four states reads like the history of recent co~cts: Angola, Bosnia-Henegovina, Cambodia, Croatia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan and others. The list also reads like the roll cdof the developing world. The accumulation of mines has special consequences for areas lacking resources to cope with the additionai burden of landmines. Efforts such as mine clearance and victim rehabilitation are currently underway to cope with the problem. However, a growing number of inâividuals in the international community believe that these actions are not enough. Solutions are needed that will arrest the problem at its root This thesis explores the prospects for an international regime to ban landmines. Three variables -- interest, knowledge, and power - influence the process of regime formation. In a chapter devoted to the interest variable, it is seen that many states will be reluctant to cooperate in a regime because they will not want to forego their military and economic interests in landmines. However, if the regime is perceived by states to meet three criteria in a satisfactory manner, namely, enforcement, participation, and solution-salience, the future of that regime is brighter. Secondly, a chapter dedicated to the knowledge variable reveals that sufficient awareness of the crisis wiil lead states to alter their understanding of what their interests are. They will lem that the crisis is dire and that global action is required for the good of humanity. The successful realization of a regime depends, in part, on the abiiity of groups of experts and other relevant parties to disseminate information about the negative consequences of landmines. Finally, a chapter that concems itself with the power variable shows that inertia will govern the issue in the absence of strong and committed leadership. Sorne state or states must be willing to take the initiative in a given area for a regime to emerge. These variables teil us what to expect, as weli as what is needed for international cooperation to occur. Although it remains to be seen whether an enduring and effective regime wilI actualiy corne into existence, the conclusion notes that there are promising signs of change. The conclusion also draws on the explanatory power of the variables involved in regime formation to suggest ways in which this momentum cm be sustained. Acknowledgements 1 would like to aclmowledge my thesis advisor, Professor Gilbert Winham for his invaluable advice, his tirne, and his enthusiasm. Many thanlcs go to Professors Denis Stairs and Danford Middlemiss for their careful readings of the text. 1 wish also to thank my family. CEiAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION "Likea deadly disease long absent and assumed conquered, the land mine, that scourge of the battlefield of World War 1, has reemerged on a scale unimagined and with hideous, unanticipated effects" wrote former Secretary General of the United Nations, Boutros Boutros-Ghali in 1994. He added that "there is today a global land mine crisis."l This thesis attempts to explain what is necessary for change to stem the crisis. More precisely, it wiU examine the prospects for the creation of an international regime in the issue-area of antipersonnel landmines. Since the earliest studies on regimes were stimdated by cails for pragmatic solutions to global problems2, it is fitting to place this particular issue within that body of literature. For many, the scourge of landmines tops the list of global problerns. Before entering into a discussion on the literature of regimes, it is helpful to set the stage for the chapters to corne. Our introduction serves as a primer on landmines, the problem, and some of the solutions. It will later define regime and lBoutros Boutros-Ghali, 'TheLand Mine Crisis: A Humanitarian Disaster," Foreimi Mairs 735 (September-October 1994). 8. Hereafter cited as Boutros-Ghali, "Land Mine 'Tony Evans and Peter Wilson, "Regime Theory and the English School International Relations: A Cornparison." Miliennium 2 1:3 (1992). 329. Hereafter cited Evans and Wilson, "RegimeTheory and English School." the variables that determine whether or not a regime will be fod. First of all, what is a landmine? The accepted legal definition is "a munition placed under, on or near the ground or other surface area and designed to be exploded by the presence. proximity or contact of a person or vehicle."' The fuse may comprise a tripwire, an anti-handling device or a form of electronic sensor. Two broad categories of landmines exist: hti-perso~d(AP) and ami- tank (AT). The former, as the name implies, are targeted at persons, and the latter are designed to be detonated by vehicles. AT mines contain between two and nine kilograms of explosive (compared to the ten to 250 grams of explosive in AP mines). They require a greater pressure to detonate them than AP mines (usudy 100 kilograms or more). While uiis thesis focuses on AP mines, the distinction between the two is not always transparent. Some modified dual-purpose anti-tank mines can be detonated by only seven kiiograms of pressure. In addition, anti-tank mines are unable to distinguish between tank-drivers, and the civilian drivers of tractors and relief trucks, a criticism leveiIed at AP mines4. 31ntemationalCornmittee of the Red Cross, ICRC Overview: Anti-Personnel Mines -1996 (Geneva, Switzerland: ICRC Publications, 1996). 3. Hereafter cited as ICRC,Overview -1996. 'United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs. Land Mines: From Words to Action DHA Issues on Focus Series: No. 3. (Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations 3 Of the 360 or so types of AP mines, produced in approximately 55 countries5, two distinct groups emerge. Both are purposely caiculated to maim, or kill the victim. The most common is the blast mine, which is surface or sub- surface laid. Activated by direct pressure, it relies primarily on its explosive blast to be effective. The blasting of the mine casing, dia, gravel, surroundhg vegetation and even the victim's footwear causes secondary injury. Popular models are the Soviet-made PMN, PMN-2and the United States-made M14. The second group of AP mines is the hgmentation mine. The majority of fragmentation mines are laid above ground, supported on stakes or attached with mounting brackets :O man-made structures, trees and undergrowth. In rnost cases, they are triggered by a tripwire. When the mine is set off, fragmentation is scattered over a radius of roughly 20 meters. Directional fragmentation mines hold pre-formed metal fragments located in an explosive charge that are projected in a pre-determined arc of about 50 meters. A much-imitated directional mine is the US.-made Ml8 and M18A1 CIayrnore. Bounding mines also rely on strewn fragments to be harmful. A propehg charge elevates the mine to stomach height before the main charge explodes, permithg a wide area to be covered by its contents. They are particularly lethal. An example of the bounding mine is the . - . .-. .. - Department of Humanitarian Mairs, 1995). 4. Hereafter cited as UNDHA, Words to Action. %RC, Overview 1996,3. Italian-produced Valmara 6g6. AP mines can be categorized in another way: rnanufactured and improvised. The manufactureci mine is readily identifiable by its general appearance and, on occasion, the markings of the producer. The improvised mine, an abundant item in less-developed nations. is typically made from explosives or from dud-fied ordnance. It ranges fiom a pound to several hundred pounds, and may be modined to suit the user's need7. New technologies, concentrathg on the means of delivery and fushg systems, have altered the makeup of mines. Remotely deliverable mines, dso called scatterables, were used widely for the esttime in Vietnam. Rather than being deployed by hand or mechanical means, the mines are distributed on a large scale by artillery, rocket and mortar dispensers. The dispensers are attached to helicopters, fïxed-wing aircraft and land vehicles. The mines lie in a visible state on the ground, until their inevitable concealment by nature.