FOREST FUTURES Sustainable pathways for forests, landscapes and people in the Asia-Pacific region Asia-Pacific Forest Sector Outlook Study III FOREST FUTURES Sustainable pathways for forests, landscapes and people in the Asia-Pacific region Asia-Pacific Forest Sector Outlook Study III Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Bangkok, 2019 Required citation: FAO. 2019. Forest futures – Sustainable pathways for forests, landscapes and people in the Asia- Pacific region. Asia-Pacific Forest Sector Outlook Study III. Bangkok. 352 pp. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 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Cover photos: third from top – ©CIFOR/Mokhamad Edliadi; all others – ©Yurdi Yasmi; ©FAO iii Contents Foreword xiii Acknowledgements xv Acronyms and abbreviations xix Key messages xx Executive summary xxiii I Setting the stage 1 Introduction: a sustainable future is possible 3 What is the future of forests and the forest sector? 4 Looking into the future 4 The world at the crossroads 6 Forest transition: the good news and bad news 8 Key questions, countries and target audiences of APFSOS III 10 Report structure 12 The region’s forests and landscapes are changing 2 rapidly 15 Taking a landscape view 16 Land policies and landscapes 21 Changes in forests and forest landscapes 24 The management of forests and trees 35 Wood production in the region 36 Trees in agricultural landscapes 44 Trees in urban landscapes 48 Forest transitions in the Asia-Pacific region 52 3 Big shifts are happening in forest value chains 55 Wood value chains 56 The trade of wood and wood products 68 Value chains for bioenergy 71 Wood and wood products in a bioeconomy 73 Non-wood forest product value chains 75 Value chains for ecosystem services 84 iv II Drivers of change The region’s population is growing and people 4 are on the move 87 More people, more demand on forests 88 Swelling cities 91 Moving for work or fleeing strife 98 Changing age structures and consumption of forest products 101 Demographic changes and forest transitions 103 Economies are booming, with opportunities and 5 threats for forests 107 Sustained high growth in incomes 108 Outlook for economic growth 109 Economic development and changing dependence on land 114 The agriculture–forestry dynamic 116 The livestock sector and forests 119 Infrastructure development and forests 121 Hydropower and land-use change 122 Mining and other extractive sectors 123 Globalization and forests 123 Income inequality, poverty and the future of jobs 126 Environmental challenges threaten – and countries 6 seek ways to increase ecosystem services 131 Key environmental issues 132 Forests and climate-change mitigation and adaptation 135 Forests in climate-change negotiations 136 Biodiversity conservation and forests 144 The water challenge and forests 150 Land degradation 156 Amenity values of forests and trees 158 Forests and disasters 159 v New technologies are transforming forestry – 7 but uptake is patchy 165 The influence of technology on forestry 166 Forest science and research 168 Forest management 169 Environmental monitoring 172 Product innovation 176 Forest governance 179 Markets and finance 186 Key enablers for accelerating technological development and innovation 188 Youth perspectives on science, technology and innovation in forestry 190 Participation in forest governance grows, 8 but conflicts loom 195 Changing governance and policy discourses 196 From global to local forest governance 199 Strengthening forest governance 203 Increasing stakeholder participation 206 Market approaches aimed at addressing sustainability and legality 215 Dealing with forest-related conflicts 220 Changing discourses, changing institutions 223 Youth views on forest governance 226 III Scenarios for 2030 and 2050 9 Forests face divergent futures to 2030 and 2050 231 Why develop scenarios? 232 Scenarios in the previous outlook study 233 Scenarios for 2030 233 Scenarios for 2050 252 Youth views on the future 260 Forestry can lead the region towards a sustainable 10 future 265 Lessons learned 266 Robust actions to shape a sustainable future 275 Conclusion: the forestry response 277 Options for operationalizing the robust actions 279 References 289 vi Tables Table 1.1 APFSOS countries, by subregion 11 Table 2.1 Characteristics affecting forest production systems 37 Table 2.2 Key players in planted-forest development in the Asia-Pacific region 41 Table 2.3 Groupings of trees outside forests, by predominant land use 45 Table 2.4 Forest-area change and trends in key countries, by income grouping, Asia-Pacific countries 53 Table 3.1 Production of key wood products, world and Asia-Pacific region, 1990, 2010 and 2017 58 Table 3.2 Gross value added in the wood-furniture sector in Asia, 1990 and 2011 59 Table 5.1 KOF Globalization Index, selected subregions and countries, 1990–2015 125 Table 5.2 Change in the proportion of people living below the poverty line, selected countries in the Asia-Pacific region, 2000–2016 127 Table 6.1 Global greenhouse-gas emissions, by source, 1960–1969, 2006–2017 and 2017 135 Table 6.2 Global net emissions from forests, 2001–2010 and 2011–2015 136 Table 6.3 Status of the components of the Warsaw Framework for REDD+, as of February 2019, selected countries in the Asia-Pacific region 139 Table 6.4 Biodiversity conservation at the local, national and global levels 145 Table 6.5 Overview of investments in watershed services, 2015, world and the Asia-Pacific region 156 Table 6.6. Disasters with the biggest impacts on forestry, countries in the Asia- Pacific region, 2003–2016 161 Table 6.7 Forest fires in selected countries, Asia-Pacific region 162 Table 7.1 Digital technologies with implications for the future of forestry in the Asia-Pacific region 168 Table 8.1 Forest ownership in the Asia-Pacific region, selected countries, 2002 and 2017 210 Table 8.2 Target area for community-based forestry, selected countries in the Asia-Pacific region 214 Table 8.3 Examples of women’s roles in forestry based on recent country gender assessments, selected countries in the Asia-Pacific region 214 Table 8.4 Import regulations in selected consumer countries or blocs to tackle illegal timber trade 218 Table 8.5 Possible institutional changes according to the four major forestry discourses 224 Table 9.1 Forests and forestry in the Asia-Pacific region in 2020: selected predictions from APFSOS II 234 vii Table 9.2 Forest-cover targets not pledged through the Bonn Challenge, Tables selected countries in the Asia-Pacific region 244 Table 9.3 Potential