July 2008 SPECIAL REPORT What future for High Speed in Britain? BRITAIN’S rail system is running out of modernisation of the West Coast Main Line will capacity. Demand will exceed the network’s have created extra capacity on the route— capability within 20 years—possibly within 10 including the four-tracking now under way in years—according to all the latest forecasts. And Staffordshire—but Parliament’s Public Accounts these do not take into account higher demand if Committee has warned that the modernised route motoring costs continue to remain rise. could be at full capacity again from as early as Contrary to many earlier reports, neither the 2015. government’s 2007 White Paper on the next 30 The government agrees that in future it would years of the rail system nor Sir Rod Eddington’s be better to build new lines rather than upgrade report in December 2006 on Britain’s transport existing ones. infrastructure ruled out the development of a new “The clear view of railway professionals with north-south high-speed rail line. experience of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link and Although the government dropped West Coast Main Line projects is that the consideration of a MAGLEV (magnetic disadvantages of undertaking major new levitation) route—on the grounds that it could construction work alongside a working railway cost around £60 billion—the 2007 White Paper outweigh the advantages. … For this reason the made clear there was a need to start planning Government believes that any future planning ahead of the next ‘high level output should focus on new line options,” said the specification’ (HLOS) in 2012 for the possibility railway White Paper. that demand for rail services accelerates. Meanwhile—encouraged by the industry lobby And the White Paper acknowledged that one of group The Railway Forum—Jim Steer, the the first areas where extra capacity may be strategy director of the former Strategic Rail needed is along the London–Birmingham– Authority, set up an organisation called Manchester corridor. Greengauge 21 to argue the case for a new high- When it is completed at the end of 2008, the speed line. What next? A new route, High Speed 2, comprising “a broad organisations. Its work will has been put forward by the coalition of interests”— be coordinated with a New pressure group Greengauge among them, regional Lines Programme, also 21, which is to set up a development agencies, city announced by Network Rail. Public Interest Group councils and rail industry ________________________________________________________________________ Network Rail boosts British high-speed rail proposals • MPs’ report says ‘capacity problem on the West Coast Main Line is already grave’ PLANS to extend high-speed train services from St Pancras International to the Midlands and North — High Speed 2 — have been boosted by Network Rail, which has set up a study to see if new lines can be justified. The results should be known within a year. Richard Eccles, Network Rail’s Head of Route come from ‘highway decongestion’ resulting Planning, said a ‘new lines programme’ would from the big switch of motorists to high-speed be looking at the East Coast Main Line, Midland trains. Main Line, West Coast Main Line, Chiltern Line and Western Main Line corridors. MPs want early decision The team had been set up by Network Rail to In its latest report, Parliament’s Transport examine what should be done when network Select Committee said the government “needs to capacity runs out in the next 10 – 20 years, he commit to making a decision by 2010 at the told a Railway Forum conference in latest.” Birmingham. The committee’s report — much of it prepared “Our expectation is that the best value for before the death of its former chairman, money will be a high-speed line,” Richard Gwyneth Dunwoody — said “the capacity Eccles said. problem on the West Coast Main Line is already An influential committee of MPs has also grave.” called on the government to make a decision on a The MPs added: “We were therefore concerned new line—at least as far as Birmingham—by that the Department [for Transport] has no time- 2010. frame for a decision on a high speed link, at least And a report for Birmingham City Council has as far as Birmingham, the stretch of the line with forecast that a new 300km/h (186 mph) line the most pressing problems.” would boost the West Midlands’ economy by Greengauge 21, the organisation set up by Jim over £6 billion. Steer—who was strategy director at the former This is the first-ever detailed estimate of Strategic Rail Authority—has proposed building economic benefits that high-speed rail services the first stage of a new high-speed line to the would bring to a British city. north. Until now, calls for new high-speed lines have The plan has been welcomed and supported by had to be based on the experience of Lille, the Railway Forum, as well as by Eurostar, northern France, after completion of new lines which saw a 21 per cent rise in passenger from Paris to Brussels and London. numbers — and a 25 per cent increase in revenue The Birmingham study forecasts that by — in the first quarter of 2008, following the building High Speed 2 from the terminus of High opening of High Speed 1 last November. Speed 1 at St Pancras—and with a spur line into The ‘candidate route’ suggested by Heathrow airport—half of all road trips between Greengauge 21 would run from St Pancras Birmingham, London and Heathrow would towards west London, with a spur line to switch to rail. Heathrow, then the main route would follow the David Bull, Birmingham’s Assistant Director Chiltern line northwards, passing under High (Development Strategy), said that as well as Wycombe and the Chilterns in a tunnel. frequent trains over the new line to London and It would then carry trains — at almost three Heathrow, there would be two international times the maximum legal driving speed — services each hour to destinations such as Paris, alongside the M40 motorway past Banbury and Brussels and Amsterdam. Warwick before following the M42 motorway Over five million passenger trips a year are towards Tamworth. There it would join the West forecast, said Mr Bull — 3.9 million from Coast Main Line where it is currently being Birmingham, 0.8 million from Birmingham expanded from two to four tracks. International Airport and 0.3 million from A ‘branch line’ would run into Birmingham Heathrow. city centre from Dorridge, using the former Total economic benefits are expected to be over £6 billion, of which £1 billion alone would 3 Great Western relief lines into Moor Street Journeys between London and the north would station. all be reduced by at least 30 minutes and A new station would be built near Birmingham capacity would also be freed up on the ‘classic’ International Airport and the National Exhibition route via Milton Keynes and Rugby for more Centre where HS2 crosses the Coventry- commuter, regional passenger and freight Birmingham route, linked to the existing services. Birmingham International station. Journeys on HS2 between London and Based on High Speed 1 the new route— Birmingham would be cut to less than one hour, totalling 150 miles to Birmingham and and the time between Heathrow and Birmingham Tamworth—would cost £11 billion, including a would be only about 45 minutes. 66 per cent overspending allowance, as required Paris and Brussels would both be within three by the Treasury. hours of Birmingham. * Growth will soon outstrip network capacity BRITAIN’S rail network is replacement of diesel HSTs), demand to the Midlands and fast filling up, and there are and extra services on both the North, including creating growing concerns about its East Coast and Midland Main economic regeneration in ability to cope with future Lines,” he said. Birmingham and the West demand. Already, long-distance Midlands region. Richard Eccles, Head of passenger-kilometres had Shorter journey times Route Planning at Network grown 65 per cent since 1994 would also make Birmingham Rail, told the Railway Forum said Mr Hayes. International Airport closer that the government’s aim And in only the past three to London than Stansted, he was to carry double years numbers on the West added. passenger and freight Coast route had increased by Atkins’ Michael Hayes said volumes on the present 25 per cent following half of the expected network. “That is a huge introduction of the initial economic benefits from a increase,” he said. “Can you Virgin Pendolino timetable. high-speed line would come imagine Liverpool Street Jim Steer, of Greengauge from journey time reductions. station handling twice as 21—which has proposed The other half would come many people as it does construction of a new high- from relieving pressure on today? It just won’t work.” speed line with a first stage existing routes. Mr Eccles said current north of London to Richard Eccles, of Network forecasts suggested that Birmingham and to the West Rail, said the business case— demand would exceed Coast Main Line near both for building a new line capacity by 2026, only 18 Tamworth—said the and providing capacity on the years away. advantages of the new high- existing infrastructure— But according to Michael frequency Pendolino service should be “compelling”. Hayes, of consultants W S “are not sustainable because For example, Milton Atkins, capacity might be of capacity constraints.” Keynes commuters should reached as soon as 2016. Mr Steer added: “The benefit from a new high- Among long-distance Pendolino service is very speed line because it would routes, the worst problems predictably going to be the free up capacity for were expected to arise south victim of its own success.” additional trains, he pointed of Peterborough on the East But a new high-speed line out.